81–90 of 111 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or more simply, you could just make the relevant information publicly available in real-time.
If we are assuming that the actors are bad, why would you trust the information they are putting out?
It doesn't sound like the companies themselves are intent on profiting from insider information, just a couple of opportunistic employees with privileged access.
If I was employed by a horse racing trainer, and I happened to know certain information about the preparation of a particular horse, which the public hadn't factored into the available odds, and I placed a bet on that horse to win, there's nothing illegal in that (not in the UK at least). I'm in a position to act on uncommon knowledge, but I've still placed a bet and there's no guarantee the horse will win. It happens all the time.
This whole situation was bound to happen. As others have pointed out, this is an unregulated industry. I think DFS as a whole will be better off as a result this - since they'll be forced to securely store player pick data that can't be accessed by anyone other than the contest participant until the contest starts. FanDuel and DraftKings already have very strict internal rules about this, but I don't think their tech…
I don't know. They may think it's impossible to have an advantage, but there's always an incentive to find that loophole. Forbidding employees to play on others' sites at least disincentivizes it a bit. Also, I don't think it's too surprising that FD or DK don't enforce their rules too harshly. As long as they are making a lot of money, why do they care?
They'll care about it becomes an impediment to them making lots of money, which seems like right now.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Those are the advertised pricing for players. If you do not believe that these companies have a private, internal model to set those "prices" to maximize their returns...
Their return is constant and only dependent on the number of players. They have no need for "secret prices"
someone please explain like i'm five - according to the wikipedia page, fantasy football scoring is based on the actual performance of the athletes you pick in an actual game. therefore, if the games themselves are not fixed, there should be no possibility of "insider information" - what information could the companies running the pool have that the general public do not? the article didn't make it any clearer.
In the late 90s, I knew a guy who ran a free "pick the winner" football web site. He said he did it because of the phrase, "the masses are the asses", which means that the general public as a whole bets incorrectly and loses a majority of the time. This may be a bit of a simplification of what he actually did, but it was my understanding that he would see the trends in how his users were betting for the week, then lo…
Efficiency in Exchange Betting Markets
http://faculty.london.edu/mottaviani/exchange-betting.pdf
"In terms of the Sobel and Raines model, a lower conventional bias in the exchanges relative to traditional betting markets is consistent with a higher proportion of ‘serious’ bettors on the exchanges than with bookmakers"
Efficient Market Hypothesis
http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2010/12/efficient-market-h...
"If you were to take all horses starting a race at 2.76 then you would find their win rate was pretty close to 36%"
Market Efficiency: An Analysis of the Internet Betting Exchange Market
http://studenttheses.cbs.dk/bitstream/handle/10417/2888/fred...
someone please explain like i'm five - according to the wikipedia page, fantasy football scoring is based on the actual performance of the athletes you pick in an actual game. therefore, if the games themselves are not fixed, there should be no possibility of "insider information" - what information could the companies running the pool have that the general public do not? the article didn't make it any clearer.
Let's say that you, zem, are an expert player and you have entered a roster into DraftKings Million Dollar contest. I, swanson, am an employee of DraftKings and have access to your lineup and/or data about all the other lineups entered. (* This is speculation) I, swanson, then use this inside knowledge to make my own lineup on FanDuel (I am not allowed to play on DraftKings because I work there). I win big money on F…
I can't really see the problem here. The employee made a bet. Sure, he used information not commonly available, but he didn't do it on his own site. And it was still a bet, not something that was guaranteed to win. If I was employed by a horse racing trainer, and I happened to know certain information about the preparation of a particular horse, which the public hadn't factored into the available odds, and I placed a…
so it would seem the certainty of return is irrelevant.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even with that, you'd still have to be good enough to pick the best roster. I don't think it's as useful as the article makes it sound.
Not true. If anything, it's even more useful than the article makes it sound. If you knew absolutely nothing about sports, but had access to this data and a fairly basic understanding of probability and statistics, you could use this data to be basically +EV in any large field contest you enter. The lottery analogy by slg is a great metaphor to understand it.
I can't really see the problem here. The employee made a bet. Sure, he used information not commonly available, but he didn't do it on his own site. And it was still a bet, not something that was guaranteed to win. If I was employed by a horse racing trainer, and I happened to know certain information about the preparation of a particular horse, which the public hadn't factored into the available odds, and I placed a…
Otherwise the general public might be less likely to want to bet because they know that the insiders will get a disproportionate amount of the winnings, effectively lessening their odds.
I can't really see the problem here. The employee made a bet. Sure, he used information not commonly available, but he didn't do it on his own site. And it was still a bet, not something that was guaranteed to win. If I was employed by a horse racing trainer, and I happened to know certain information about the preparation of a particular horse, which the public hadn't factored into the available odds, and I placed a…