Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#61

Post by _up » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 8:54 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #42

cwp wrote: post #12

I see two opposing forces: Self driving cars could encourage sprawl by making commuting long distances more practical. If you could be working during your commute instead of driving, and didn't need to find parking once you arrive, a 2-hour commute could become practical. That would intensify the "car culture" that currently drives municipal planning, but would reduce the harmful effects. As you mention, less space w…

I think that's about right. To your "on the other hand" though, I'm inclined to think that where density is already high, robo-driving doesn't change the equation of car + $10-20/hr driver all that much. (Especially given that some of those costs--cleaning, etc.--have to be shifted to a non-driver.) Therefore, I expect easier driving = more driving (which is more or less basic economics.)

Some no frills car sharing companies make their users clean the car. And if you get a dirty car you can order a new one and the previous driver gets billed. And small one person Robo cars could also be build much simpler and cheaper.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#62

Post by jcadam » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 9:00 PM UTC

Well, here is something that recently occurred to me:

I'm a member of a typical 2 car suburban family. I work and my wife is a stay-at-home mom. Truthfully, I only need a car to get myself to and from work, while my wife needs a car for ferrying kids to and from school (and activities), shopping, errands, etc. Thus, we need two cars.

My car spends most of its day sitting in the parking lot at my office building, unneeded. However, if I can drive myself to work and then order my car to drive itself home for my wife to use (who would hopefully send the car to come and fetch me at the end of the workday), we could easily become a one car family. Which would be nice. Of course, I live about a half an hour from my workplace -- this might not work as well with a 2 hour commute.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#63

Post by joezydeco » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 9:02 PM UTC

markyc wrote: post #25

joezydeco wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you ever choose to start a family, this number might not be as appealing. Just speaking from experience.

the 3h can be included in the job time, so you only stay 5h at the office

When your kid's school calls and says he's vomiting and needs to go home, it will make more sense. You're still 2 hours away from home no matter how much work you slam out in the JohnnyCab.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#64

Post by _up » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 9:20 PM UTC

mhandley wrote: post #37

I live in outer London and commute into the centre most days by bus then train then tube. Most people around where I live do the same. I could drive, but it costs too much to park and the time is wasted time, whereas I can read on public transport. If I had a self-driving car, the downside of driving would be removed, so I'd be much more tempted to drive. I guess many others would too, but London wouldn't cope. The u…

Parking spaces could be tranformed to roads. And streets or even whole cities alloted to Robo Cars only and then used much more efficiently.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#65

Post by wtallis » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 9:33 PM UTC

collyw wrote: post #57

marcosdumay wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People that are too defensive on transit tend to cause congestion, not avoid it. Of course, that's dependent of the streets being full of people a bit more violent, but until we have all cars driving themselves, that condition will be true, what may take decades. Also, if the car is self-driving, people will be want to make more trips. For example, if we send their cars back home once they got to work, we'll save on…

>People that are too defensive on transit tend to cause congestion, not avoid it. Have you any proof of that? I would guess that both "agressive" and "defensive" drivers cause problems in different ways. For example when I am waiting at a pedestrian crossing to cross, if a driver comes up fast and brakes hard close to the stop I won't start walking until I am sure he is stopping. If another driver slows down well in…

I like to characterize is as unpredictability being the real harm. If you don't behave as expected, everyone around you will have to react at short notice, and that disturbs the flow. And those disturbances cascade, because laminar traffic flow is highly unstable.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#66

Post by tdylan » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 9:40 PM UTC

_up wrote: post #61

ghaff wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's about right. To your "on the other hand" though, I'm inclined to think that where density is already high, robo-driving doesn't change the equation of car + $10-20/hr driver all that much. (Especially given that some of those costs--cleaning, etc.--have to be shifted to a non-driver.) Therefore, I expect easier driving = more driving (which is more or less basic economics.)

Some no frills car sharing companies make their users clean the car. And if you get a dirty car you can order a new one and the previous driver gets billed. And small one person Robo cars could also be build much simpler and cheaper.

Correct, you'll be rating the previous passenger in your Uber's once we have self driving vehicles. Same mechanics will apply.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#67

Post by tdylan » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 9:43 PM UTC

puredemo wrote: post #15

thrill wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think robocars will soon lead to robolandyachts. It'll be pretty tempting to rent a comfortable autonomous land vehicle that you tell the scheduling package that "I can leave after 1800 and I want to be at the Grand Canyon at 0800" - it tells you back the available vehicle systems and their amenities and what view the reserved parking spots at the endpoint have, and you and your family travel overnight without furt…

Are you just talking about RVs?

You can't go to sleep in an RV and wake up at a predefined destination.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#68

Post by ghaff » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 9:51 PM UTC

_up wrote: post #61

ghaff wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's about right. To your "on the other hand" though, I'm inclined to think that where density is already high, robo-driving doesn't change the equation of car + $10-20/hr driver all that much. (Especially given that some of those costs--cleaning, etc.--have to be shifted to a non-driver.) Therefore, I expect easier driving = more driving (which is more or less basic economics.)

Some no frills car sharing companies make their users clean the car. And if you get a dirty car you can order a new one and the previous driver gets billed. And small one person Robo cars could also be build much simpler and cheaper.

Sure. My basic point though is that, given high utilization, $15/hour doesn't really change the economics of ordering a car on demand though. It still makes sense in the cities where it already makes sense unless services like Uber are already being blocked for regulatory reasons.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#69

Post by paulsutter » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 10:21 PM UTC

irixusr wrote: post #17

paulsutter wrote: post #3

Self driving electric cars mean that tunnels are more cost effective (no fumes, closer tolerances in tunnel sizing, greater capacity), so we can go 3D (no need for stop lights, we just have cloverleaf interchanges underground with sloped ramps so that passengers feel no lateral acceleration which means higher speeds are ok). Now the surface can be for pedestrians (like Venice) and of course no need for parking lots a…

I agree that a narrower tunnel costs less (displaced rock is quadratic with tunnel diameter), but is it cheap enough to offset capital costs for all but a few extra worthy projects? I'd love to have underground streets.... But $$$....

Look at the rate of subway construction in China[1]. Self driving cars + tunnel means the subway comes to you, the riders don't need to go to the station. In the US tunnels seem like a rare and expensive thing, but they're very commonplace.

[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-is-tunneling-a-mind...

The difficulty of public works projects in the US is a legitimate question. But it's a separate question from what self driving cars will make possible (especially for the 90%+ of people who live outside the US).

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#70

Post by firebones » Sun, Oct 04, 2015, 10:51 PM UTC

Negligible impact on real estate.

If you live in the vast majority of the landmass that has no public transportation, your commute isn't long enough for a self-driving car to register on the factors in where you live. If you live in places with great public transportation, then it seems like it matters less--you now inherit issues (and cost) with parking and maintenance you didn't have before.

If you're looking for real estate impact, consider the aging population and the ability of self-driving cars to keep people in their houses longer than they normally would. Along with the factors above, I see the big beneficiaries being the service providers (anything from Uber to grocery stores to healthcare providers) who can now optimize location and distribution differently.