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Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#31

Post by YZF »

diego wrote: post #8

Why would self-driving cars reduce traffic congestion? If my car drove itself, I'd be less incentivized to use public transportation. I'd probably be willing to put up with a slightly longer door-to-door time than if I used public transportation because it would be more convenient: I'd rather surf the web in my own car than have to pay attention to stops, schedules, transfers, etc. Congestion would probably be differ…

I agree it's not a given. It's not unlike building new roads which sometimes can increase traffic. You can get people who haven't been able or willing to commute so far join the commuters. If self-driving cars are shared they might be driving more miles and be more likely to break down and block traffic.

There is a possibility to optimize transport better using self driving cars but we may not actually take advantage of it. Even things like sharing self driving cars may not work in areas with larger sprawl because the probability of two people looking for the "same" ride within a certain time window and geographical area is small. In the city it's more likely but there are already solutions such as bicycles and public transport that work fairly well in dense areas.

It is very difficult to predict the impact. Perhaps impossible.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#32

Post by ctz »

irixusr wrote: post #14
diego wrote: post #8

Why would self-driving cars reduce traffic congestion? If my car drove itself, I'd be less incentivized to use public transportation. I'd probably be willing to put up with a slightly longer door-to-door time than if I used public transportation because it would be more convenient: I'd rather surf the web in my own car than have to pay attention to stops, schedules, transfers, etc. Congestion would probably be differ…

Because they could be better drivers. For example a "perfect" driver communicating with one in front of him could, eventually, tailgate with an inch at much higher speeds. If we approximate (for arguments sake) traffic as a fluid, by bernoulli's principal there will be more capacity for a given lane. Said in another way, if the car can get there quickly it'll be off the streets sooner and another one will take its sp…

You're covering the available efficiencies in the use of existing road network capacity, and assuming that demand is static.

In fact, I think that if car ownership is cheaper, journeys can be made by anybody, and the experience is less stressful, many more people will travel by car.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if autonomous cars produce even worse congestion than today.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#33

Post by elchief »

Scenario: Long-term, everyone switches to using robo-taxis and doesn't own a car. The robo-taxis can communicate and co-ordinate.

You're looking at an ~85% drop in the number of cars required (today only ~15% of cars are on the road at peak times). The cars are used heavily in the day, but still need to park somewhere at night. Either way, 85% less parking required. This can probably be fulfilled without street parking. Easier to have centralized charging without street parking.

With intelligent driving, you can probably get away with single-lane streets (each way), with either an expanded turning lane at the corners, or preferably round-abouts.

This leads to a lot more real estate available in cities. Something like 20% more, due to single streets and less parking. That's a big increase in quantity supplied, leading to a big price drop.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#34

Post by zkhalique »

I think what's going to change is parking lots. There will be less demand for parked cars. Also, eventually entire streets will have less parked cars, leading to nice-looking streets like there were before the 20th century. I consider all the cars akin to "garbage" since they are not being used.

What will really change real estate patterns is increased support for telecommuting, both with tools and cultural acceptance.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#37

Post by mhandley »

I live in outer London and commute into the centre most days by bus then train then tube. Most people around where I live do the same. I could drive, but it costs too much to park and the time is wasted time, whereas I can read on public transport. If I had a self-driving car, the downside of driving would be removed, so I'd be much more tempted to drive. I guess many others would too, but London wouldn't cope. The upshot of this is that London's congestion charge zone would inevitably be expanded and the charge to drive into London increased still further to keep congestion manageable.

I suspect that most cities that have good public transport would suffer similarly as commuters are tempted back onto the roads. The inevitable response would be London-style congestion charging becoming widespread, because few large European-style cities would cope with any significant fraction of the population switching from public transport to self-driving cars. In the end, due to such charging, I suspect we'd end up back in a similar status quo once the dust had settled, with most people still taking public transport.

On the other had, my kids would probably love to be able to get around the suburbs without me needing to taxi them.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#38

Post by [deleted] »

irixusr wrote: post #17
paulsutter wrote: post #3

Self driving electric cars mean that tunnels are more cost effective (no fumes, closer tolerances in tunnel sizing, greater capacity), so we can go 3D (no need for stop lights, we just have cloverleaf interchanges underground with sloped ramps so that passengers feel no lateral acceleration which means higher speeds are ok). Now the surface can be for pedestrians (like Venice) and of course no need for parking lots a…

I agree that a narrower tunnel costs less (displaced rock is quadratic with tunnel diameter), but is it cheap enough to offset capital costs for all but a few extra worthy projects? I'd love to have underground streets.... But $$$....

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#39

Post by yason »

By making automotive transport easier and more convenient, the obvious consequence is a general increase in automotive traffic.

In city centers the worst externality of cars is the space they hog. Self-driving electric cars won't fix that; instead they are likely to increase the utilization of that space: unlike with humans where congested traffic suggests the drivers to look for alternative options such as mass transit, an empty car doesn't mind waiting in traffic by itself.

Suburbia is likely to expand further because if you can work a few hours in your car that means you can afford to live further away in a cheaper location. And school kids can get to school in a car by themselves, so the total number of automotive miles is likely to go up.

Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

#40

Post by bolchevich »

legulere wrote: post #28
__Joker wrote: post #24

While lot of people are thinking about how the self driving cars will effect commute specially to work. We really don't know how the workplace is going to change. I think the conventional workplace is ripe for change. Will there will be more need to commute to work as opposed to more remote working with say virtual workplace with better virtual reality. Obviously some of the jobs can't be done unless you are physical…

Programmers are the prime example for a job that can be done remotely, and yet there are tons of articles about the problems it causes. The problem of staying in contact with your workplace hardly can be solved with virtual reality.

Remote work can only function if the teams have both the communications tooling to support it and the team and organisational culture aspects to keep it up. I find most fail at the latter, because they don't know how to be sufficient enough in communication with the tools they have. Talking to face the face has much more communication bandwidth than anything else out there.
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