I would think real estate will become more spread out.
Personally, I wouldn't mind a 1.5 hour commute each way if I could code the whole time rather than drive, and if my car was electric.
Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
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Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#12I see two opposing forces:
Self driving cars could encourage sprawl by making commuting long distances more practical. If you could be working during your commute instead of driving, and didn't need to find parking once you arrive, a 2-hour commute could become practical. That would intensify the "car culture" that currently drives municipal planning, but would reduce the harmful effects. As you mention, less space wasted on parking, less congestion etc.
On the other hand, driverless cars will be a big boost for Uber, Lyft, Zipcar, GetAround and the like. That could make city living more desirable, because car-on-demand only works well when there are lots of available cars nearby. Folks that live out in the boonies would still have to own their own cars, and so wouldn't benefit as much from the technology as city-dwellers. Also, spending less space on parking has a bigger effect in the city where space is already tight, so we might see even higher density in the inner city.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#13This may derail the discussion but it's hard to discuss this question without first wondering the impact of self-driving cars to mass transit . At least in New York, being near a subway stop is a very nice amenity and commercial development typically flourishes around each stop regardless of neighborhood. If stepping into a self-driving car is as easy as walking 50 feet to the nearest subway stop, will real estate ar…
Lots of factors to look at in how this plays out in very dense and transit oriented cities like NY and large European cities. There is the potential for major problems with traffic as people move from taking transit to riding in a self-driving car. The subway infrastructure moves a lot of people, and if you move a lot of them up to the street level, the streets may not be able to cope. A lot of plusses and minuses come to mind.
1. Until all cars are self-driving, we will still need traffic lights, and so intersections will still be a big bottleneck.
2. Self driving cars may be able however to maintain closer following distances since they have quicker reaction times.
3. Jaywalking has the potential to cause huge traffic problems because pedestrians will know that self driving cars won't hit them.
4. Parking can be made more efficient by sharing cars. This is already happening in Berlin and other cities with floating carsharing systems.
5. Parking can also be made a lot more efficient if there are self-driving parking lots or areas marked off on the street, and the self-driving cars have a protocol to cooperate with parking. Parallel parked cars can be parked bumper-to-bumper, and they all just scoot out of the way to let someone out. In a lot, cars can park much more closely packed left-right since doors don't need to open, and the driving lanes can be reduced or eliminated if cars cooperate to get out of the way when one has to leave. This may free up street area to add extra driving lanes.
6. More people will probably share rides with a self driving Uber Pool/Lyft line type model.
7. If cars are shared, a lot of the fleet can be very small two or even one seat cars that take up less space in the road and parking.
8. Car interiors will resemble an office workstation. With mobile internet, very long commutes will be acceptable if the car is a fairly comfortable mobile office.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#14Why would self-driving cars reduce traffic congestion? If my car drove itself, I'd be less incentivized to use public transportation. I'd probably be willing to put up with a slightly longer door-to-door time than if I used public transportation because it would be more convenient: I'd rather surf the web in my own car than have to pay attention to stops, schedules, transfers, etc. Congestion would probably be differ…
Because they could be better drivers. For example a "perfect" driver communicating with one in front of him could, eventually, tailgate with an inch at much higher speeds. If we approximate (for arguments sake) traffic as a fluid, by bernoulli's principal there will be more capacity for a given lane.
Said in another way, if the car can get there quickly it'll be off the streets sooner and another one will take its spot.
Also a "perfect" driver wouldn't make the stupid mistakes ppl do all the time, the most annoying one staring at gory accidents. And even accidents wouldn't occur as often.
But this all assumes that the AI gets even more sophisticated.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#15I have been thinking about this as well. One idea I've been wondering about: * Will more remote vacation destinations, including owning a second home in these areas, be more in demand? Buying or renting a vacation house that's a 5-6 hour drive away may not be as ideal if you have to drive yourself there. If you own or can rent a self driving car though, the trip may not seem quite as far. Longer road trips may become…
I think robocars will soon lead to robolandyachts. It'll be pretty tempting to rent a comfortable autonomous land vehicle that you tell the scheduling package that "I can leave after 1800 and I want to be at the Grand Canyon at 0800" - it tells you back the available vehicle systems and their amenities and what view the reserved parking spots at the endpoint have, and you and your family travel overnight without furt…
Are you just talking about RVs?
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#16This may derail the discussion but it's hard to discuss this question without first wondering the impact of self-driving cars to mass transit . At least in New York, being near a subway stop is a very nice amenity and commercial development typically flourishes around each stop regardless of neighborhood. If stepping into a self-driving car is as easy as walking 50 feet to the nearest subway stop, will real estate ar…
A royal commission did a study on "Traffic in Towns" in 1963 and concluded it would be impossible to serve a city with London-like size and density with cars even if you put the buildings up on stilts and built multiple levels of roads an highways -- the problem is that you can't support a high enough level of traffic on highway offramps.
New York City is pretty close to the maximum limit of car capacity it can support. For one thing there are only so many cars that can travel on so many lanes through bridges and tunnels. If you tried to add more lanes, you'd have the same kind of problems connecting those to surface streets that you get in the "Jetsons in London" scenario.
Robert Moses did have some plans for urban removal on the southern side of midtown to accomodate more traffic (and destroy traffic demand) but it didn't happen.
(Note the response to the car in most American cities was urban removal -- you can often find a big empty space in a second or third tier city that has a 'civic center' plopped down on it.)
Manhattan looks pretty much the same today with all the cabs that it would look like with self-driving cars.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#17Self driving electric cars mean that tunnels are more cost effective (no fumes, closer tolerances in tunnel sizing, greater capacity), so we can go 3D (no need for stop lights, we just have cloverleaf interchanges underground with sloped ramps so that passengers feel no lateral acceleration which means higher speeds are ok). Now the surface can be for pedestrians (like Venice) and of course no need for parking lots a…
I agree that a narrower tunnel costs less (displaced rock is quadratic with tunnel diameter), but is it cheap enough to offset capital costs for all but a few extra worthy projects?
I'd love to have underground streets.... But $$$....
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#18I would think real estate will become more spread out. Personally, I wouldn't mind a 1.5 hour commute each way if I could code the whole time rather than drive, and if my car was electric.
If you ever choose to start a family, this number might not be as appealing. Just speaking from experience.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#19I would think real estate will become more spread out. Personally, I wouldn't mind a 1.5 hour commute each way if I could code the whole time rather than drive, and if my car was electric.
If you ever choose to start a family, this number might not be as appealing. Just speaking from experience.
Paying a million dollars for a house in SF isn't an appealing number either, compared to $350k in Santa Rosa.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#20From my perspective, the annoying thing about either driving or using public transport is it feels like wasted time. Sure, you can listen to some Great Courses while you're on a long drive, but apart from that you're trying carefully not to get in a crash. If you're on a subway or bus there's barely any space, so most kinds of work are out of the question. So the self-driving car will be a massive improvement because it frees up your time.
Net, everyone gains an hour or two each day.
Assuming the SDC is reasonably cheap to run:
- The school run changes significantly. You don't need to live quite so near school any more. Yes, there is such a thing as the school bus, but that ties everyone to the same schedule and some parents are not comfortable with sending smaller kids on it. Depends a lot on the culture where this SDC lands. (Where I live, kids walk themselves to school. I lived in places where you sent kids on public transport, too. Or a school bus.) In any case, it means you don't have to be with the kid as they go to school. And they can do whatever after school activity they like, it doesn't need coordination with public transport.
- You can get drunk anywhere, not just where there are cabs/trains/buses nearby. You can keep partying until you literally faint in your car.
- You can live quite far away from work. An SDC with a bed could be a comfy commute. You can get things done while commuting. Heck, someone will build a house where the bedroom moves (or just park in your garage, but someone will build it in). Brush your teeth, get into your car, wake up where you need to be.
- You don't even need a fixed address if your SDC is a camper van. Combine it with a remote job and you are on a constant tour. I reckon someone will do this reasonably soon and show us.
- Think of all the things that are limited by having to go home afterwards (clubbing), or are normally quite remote (eg race tracks). They can all be made more attractive if nobody feels they're wasting time getting to them. It's possible there will be extra rush hours during each day.