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Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

scientificamerican.com

21–30 of 64 posts

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#21

This passage really distills it down to the essence of what happened: "Despite skepticism in the neuroscience community, Markram won over the people who really mattered: funders at the European Commission, who seem to have looked less closely at the proposal's scientific feasibility than at its potential economic and political payoff."

Given the limited understanding of neuroscience and the problems of Markram's vision, the whole affair had the earmarks of a doomed project.

One can see similar problems in smaller effort by Palm Founder Jeff Hawkin's efforts to jump-start algorithmically oriented neuroscience research with his book On Intelligence and his company Numenta.

With all the failures pretty visible now, I'd like to say I think there's some validity in seeing if one can extract a broad vision out of all the disparate threads of neuroscience research.

There have been events in the history of science when outsiders walked in and saw a forest instead of a lot of trees - see Craig Venter, Alfred Wegener and others (and there have been many more cranks who claimed to the same of course). Making some effort to see if that kind of approach can gel is worth some effort in the study of the brain, a field whose complexity is so huge that gradual, iterative research could continue in places for a thousand years and not answer basic questions.

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#22
post #9

I was never satisfied with their explanation for why they had to start with the human brain rather than the brain of a MUCH simpler organism like C. elegans.

Exactly. OpenWorm [1] is trying to do exactly that, emulate C. elegans, with all of 302 neurons. It doesn't work yet, but they;'re plugging along. When that problem is totally solved, and the neural model is working right, it's time to move up in complexity. Probably to lizards or birds. About two decades ago, I heard Rod Brooks talking about building a human brain. He'd done some good artificial insects and was big…

I'm curious--did the Human Brain Project ever produce any noteworthy science, or did it actually blow through a billion bucks with nothing to show? Because, as far as I'm concerned, if we got a billion dollars worth of science out of it, who cares if they hit the mark? That could still be a lot of good science!

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#23
post #13

This passage really distills it down to the essence of what happened: "Despite skepticism in the neuroscience community, Markram won over the people who really mattered: funders at the European Commission, who seem to have looked less closely at the proposal's scientific feasibility than at its potential economic and political payoff."

There is a great recent Omega Tau episode on the reasons why mega projects often fail: http://omegataupodcast.net/2015/09/181-why-megaprojects-fail...

Most ambitious projects fail, period. Most startups don't succeed. I don't know if size is the issue.

I don't think a high failure rate even matters. If only 10% of billion dollar projects succeed, then spending $10 billion should get you something equivalent to a working human brain simulation. And hopefully at least something is learned from the failures. Even they don't succeed at building a human brain doesn't mean they don't learn anything.

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#24
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a great recent Omega Tau episode on the reasons why mega projects often fail: http://omegataupodcast.net/2015/09/181-why-megaprojects-fail...

Most ambitious projects fail, period. Most startups don't succeed. I don't know if size is the issue. I don't think a high failure rate even matters. If only 10% of billion dollar projects succeed, then spending $10 billion should get you something equivalent to a working human brain simulation. And hopefully at least something is learned from the failures. Even they don't succeed at building a human brain doesn't me…

The interesting question for me is how to buy those 9/10 failures more cheaply. Can we get our $1 billion failures for only $100m each? Or even $10 million? Then we can buy a lot more successes.

I think the main barrier there, though, is that funders have to be in favor of interesting failure. With the described mega-science funding project, there's a big incentive to come up with dramatic plans that are novel and promise certain success.

I think the tech industry isn't perfect at this; we can all name companies that spent way too much money for what they learned. But our FFF/seed/A/B funding model gets us a good discount on interesting failures.

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#25
In the current era, technological advances are far more important to progress in the life sciences than ideas or analytical/computational methods. The cycle of innovation is quite fast. The human genome project is a classic example. Celera genomics came out with a a totally new DNA sequencing technology towards the end of the HGP, and managed to sequence the human genome in a fraction of the time. It so happens that the HGP had enough of a head start to release their data at the same time, and that their data and Celera's data were complementary in many ways. But imagine if the HGP started 5 years later, and Celera released their complete genome when HGP had only done 50%? It too would be considered a grand failure.

A grand project needs to be timed very carefully. Even the ones that actually work well will be obsolete by their completion unless they happen to occur in the right part of the technology cycle.

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#26
post #5

I was never satisfied with their explanation for why they had to start with the human brain rather than the brain of a MUCH simpler organism like C. elegans.

Exactly. So much of neuroscience is still in "unknown unknown" phase, and the idea of just doing this massive interdisciplinary project to simulate a full human brain, built on the pile of sand that is any sort of "theory" of full-brain simulation ... it's like dedicating $1 billion to some dude's unpublished idea of proving P = NP. Bullshit should have been called before this ever got off the drawing board. Sure see…

> any handful of PhDs in the field could have told you was nonsense

The problem with groundbreaking work is often that any handful of experts can tell you that it's nonsense. E.g., look at the reception that Barry Marshall got when he proposed that stomach ulcers were caused by bacterial infection. [1] All the experts "knew" it was caused by "stress, spicy foods, and too much acid" in the stomach. Eventually he got the Nobel prize, but you have to wonder what else we're missing out because whoever discovered it wasn't as dogged or as lucky as Marshall.

[1] http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/printmember/mar1int-1

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#27
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. OpenWorm [1] is trying to do exactly that, emulate C. elegans, with all of 302 neurons. It doesn't work yet, but they;'re plugging along. When that problem is totally solved, and the neural model is working right, it's time to move up in complexity. Probably to lizards or birds. About two decades ago, I heard Rod Brooks talking about building a human brain. He'd done some good artificial insects and was big…

It's not clear at all that Mouse->Human is simply a scaling problem. It would appear that there is some emergent phenomenon (consciousness) somewhere on the scale between mouse and human. This phenomenon may be triggered by a surplus of "computational resource" with respect to "body to be controlled", which I personally think is unlikely. It may be triggered by a matching of computational resource to controllable com…

What makes you so sure mice aren't conscious? Insects probably are not, I have no strong opinion on mice, but dolphins almost definitely are.

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#28

I was never satisfied with their explanation for why they had to start with the human brain rather than the brain of a MUCH simpler organism like C. elegans.

Because it's unlikely that C. elegans can't even learn . It doesn't have any brain structures equivalent to ones in humans. It's neurons work totally differently. They are so different from us that anything we learn probably wouldn't apply to human brains. A more intelligent animal, ideally a mammal, would be a much better choice.

The thing I was always wondering about brain simulations is how to determine what level of detail is enough. What if neurons evolved to take advantage of some funny quantum phenomena that we may not even know about yet, and without this the simulation won't work? For this reason I would think that getting a simple brain simulation to work would at least help enumerate the physics most involved in their function.

Now maybe there is some extra physics that comes into play at scale (like some quantum-computery effect with human-size brains that induces conciousness) but maybe this would be detectable as small discrepancies in the small simulations (especially as they progress in size to e.g. mice).

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#29
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not clear at all that Mouse->Human is simply a scaling problem. It would appear that there is some emergent phenomenon (consciousness) somewhere on the scale between mouse and human. This phenomenon may be triggered by a surplus of "computational resource" with respect to "body to be controlled", which I personally think is unlikely. It may be triggered by a matching of computational resource to controllable com…

What makes you so sure mice aren't conscious? Insects probably are not, I have no strong opinion on mice, but dolphins almost definitely are.

Do you believe mice ask themselves "why do I exist?" or whether it is better "to be, or not to be"?

I am genuinely interested in your perspective.

I adore my dog. He shows a wide range of what I believe to be genuine emotions. But I do not think he is self-aware, and by self-aware I mean able to contemplate his own existence (and therefor lack of existence). For that matter, I don't think he ever contemplates the lack of my existence (despite feeling it when I am not around, so I am told).

Re: Why the Human Brain Project Went Wrong and How to Fix It

#30

I was never satisfied with their explanation for why they had to start with the human brain rather than the brain of a MUCH simpler organism like C. elegans.

Because it's unlikely that C. elegans can't even learn . It doesn't have any brain structures equivalent to ones in humans. It's neurons work totally differently. They are so different from us that anything we learn probably wouldn't apply to human brains. A more intelligent animal, ideally a mammal, would be a much better choice.

Yes, quite true, but in this thread, a bunch of people who know nothing at all about neuroscience and cognitive science - worse, who don't believe anyone anywhere knows anything about those subjects - are going to pontificate on why having a bunch of trained experts study the brain was always a terrible idea.
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