21–30 of 90 posts
Last autumn I was involved in working on a similar web app [1] for WorldBank which consumed its data sources. I think it should be more accurate as they at WorldBank collect the data from multiple sources and process it in a scientifically precise manner. You can enter country you live in, which can make a dramatic difference. [1] http://population.io
Last autumn I was involved in working on a similar web app [1] for WorldBank which consumed its data sources. I think it should be more accurate as they at WorldBank collect the data from multiple sources and process it in a scientifically precise manner. You can enter country you live in, which can make a dramatic difference. [1] http://population.io
I'm the same as the author, a 34 year old male. For me, chances are pretty concentrated on me living a good few decades more. Which is ok, I can plan for that. I'll need a house to live in for the next 30 years, changing careers could be done, etc. I'm pretty unlikely to die in the next couple of decades, so hopefully I'll see my kids go to college. Chances of dying earlier are so low I can basically ignore them.
It also makes me sad about my high school classmate who passed away at 29. Set the marker to 18 and you have to wait quite a while before one of the simulations ends at 29 or earlier.
For someone older, there's an interesting issue. Say I put in my father's age, 71. There's a 1/3 chance of not making it to 81. But then there's also a 20% chance of making it past 91. What do you do about that? You can't spend all your money now. But you can't not spend it, either. Should you wait until next year to see your old friends? The likelihood is flattened out, which makes it quite hard to decide things.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> But somebody who is 10 today, will likely have a life > expectancy much longer than the 80 years Turns out there's a _highly_ developed and mature prediction market for this called life insurance, and they disagree with your assessment.
You're saying we have access to the premiums on a 70+ year life insurance policy for a 10-year-old, or at least a reliable proxy?
The nature of the curve, with virtually no chance of death until about 65, with a strong dropoff after, should give rise to a fair bit of reflection. I'm the same as the author, a 34 year old male. For me, chances are pretty concentrated on me living a good few decades more. Which is ok, I can plan for that. I'll need a house to live in for the next 30 years, changing careers could be done, etc. I'm pretty unlikely t…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're saying we have access to the premiums on a 70+ year life insurance policy for a 10-year-old, or at least a reliable proxy?
If you're asking "Can I insure my newborn for the rest of their life for a predictable premium?" the answer is yes.
Nice UX, but the probability is probably wrong. I am in my 40s, so I'll give the current life expectancy stats about a 50% chance of being valid by the time I reach the age to die. But somebody who is 10 today, will likely have a life expectancy much longer than the 80 yeas. The entire curve will be pushed out. So for that person, I'd guess the probability of this being correct is closer to 10%.
If I'm reading correctly, it seems they tried to deduce the bottom chart from the top chart, which is not appropriate for the reason you wrote.
The top chart only considers ONE year into the future from TODAY, based on someone's age TODAY. More specifically -- It's a chart for survival analysis (predict rate of failure, based on a certain fixed time period and a certain starting date) not life expectancy (predict the time period over which a certain fixed rate of failure occurs, based on any future date.)
The bottom chart though, should be far more influenced by the predicted increase in life expectancy -- since it would have to account for decades of predicted average life expectancy improvement, instead of just increase in average predicted life expectancy over one year, which probably has a negligible effect on the top chart.
I believe that we will see significant advances in lifespan-increasing research over the next hundred years, barring any major disasters affecting humanity. Old models and expectations for calculating death can no longer be relied upon. Most of the people alive today will probably (unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your world view) be among the last generations to die from what we currently consider natural…
Back in the real world, we can't even agree as a society what level of healthcare should be afforded to all members vs. what level you have to earn.
The greatest advancements in life extension in recent years have only added more years of horribly low quality life. I don't want to die, but I am going to. Why should I invest my resources to spend years suffering?