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Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

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Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#11
post #3
post #2

I thought this part was interesting: So what’s really going on? Something much simpler: asset managers are just managing much more money than they used to, because there’s much more capital in the markets than there once was. As recently as 1990, hedge funds managed a total of $38.9 billion. Today, it’s closer to $3 trillion. Mutual funds in the US had $1.6 trillion in assets in 1992. Today, it’s more than $16 trilli…

I find it hard to believe that there are 2 orders of magnitude more goods and services being bought and sold in the economy that 25 years ago. Rather, the complexity of financial instruments is the one that has gone up and up, but there's not that much more real wealth to back it up. If that is the case, the short answer would be "because of inflation".

If people have been making profits for the last 25 years and investing them, the amount of money in the markets will increase regardless of the instruments involved. Wealth is accumulating, but people don't really know what to do with it besides giving it to someone else to invest.

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#12
Some good points in the article, but I am not sure I agree with all of its conclusions.

CEO pay is going through the roof because of a ratcheting-up effect that has been going for years.

The board brings a consultant to evaluate the CEOs pay. Said consultant is in tight with board, and is looking for their next consulting gig. Not a chance they are going to recommend a significant cut, or a performance plan that is aligned with long term (5+ year) shareholder interests.

I'd like to see CEOs treated like true investors. Want to make 50 million if the company does well? Cool. Company loses money? You owe $60 million. The current status quo is all upside for CEOs - they have no skin in the game.

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#13
post #3
post #2

I thought this part was interesting: So what’s really going on? Something much simpler: asset managers are just managing much more money than they used to, because there’s much more capital in the markets than there once was. As recently as 1990, hedge funds managed a total of $38.9 billion. Today, it’s closer to $3 trillion. Mutual funds in the US had $1.6 trillion in assets in 1992. Today, it’s more than $16 trilli…

I find it hard to believe that there are 2 orders of magnitude more goods and services being bought and sold in the economy that 25 years ago. Rather, the complexity of financial instruments is the one that has gone up and up, but there's not that much more real wealth to back it up. If that is the case, the short answer would be "because of inflation".

Asset prices have gone up 2 orders of magnitude; real inflation for "real" things (not financial instruments) hasn't gone up as much (80% or so).

In part this is because profits have been up, therefore equities are up. Profits are up because companies aren't investing in the real economy as much since the 2008 crash. As to whether this is sustainable... PE ratios are trending higher but no where near the dot-com era levels. So it's not like equities are completely out of whack with reality.

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#14
post #2

I thought this part was interesting: So what’s really going on? Something much simpler: asset managers are just managing much more money than they used to, because there’s much more capital in the markets than there once was. As recently as 1990, hedge funds managed a total of $38.9 billion. Today, it’s closer to $3 trillion. Mutual funds in the US had $1.6 trillion in assets in 1992. Today, it’s more than $16 trilli…

Here is some context for anyone else who is curious.

A 1990 dollar is worth 1.84 dollars today because of inflation. There are about 3 times as many goods and services sold since 1990.(adjusted for inflation) [0] But real wealth has increased by 4.25x not adjusted for inflation[1]($20 trillion in 1990 to $85 trillion today)

So it looks like there is 2.3x as much wealth, its valued 1.8x as highly, mutual funds manage a 2.7x larger share of net worth.(which is 18% of the household net-worth of $85 trillion) and hedge funds manage a 18x larger share of net worht.(which is 3.5% of house net-worth).

It would also be interesting to see how much of this shift is due to larger amounts of wealth inequality. Specifically the wealthy have less of their net-worth in real estate, a larger share in the mutual funds, and astronomically larger share in hedge funds compared to the poor.

[0] http://www.statista.com/statistics/188105/annual-gdp-of-the-... [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a3/Graphic.png [2] http://time.com/money/3919690/americans-total-net-worth-reco...

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#15
The article omits some of the basic information needed for making sense of the data: What is the composition of the one-percent?

I doubt that corporate executives make up a significant percentage of the super-wealthy, despite the attention the media pays to them. If that's true, then ipso facto changes in CEO compensation cannot account for most of the structural increase in inequality over the last half century.

A more likely suspect is the influence of technology, which has interlinked global markets so that the dominant players are able to extract significantly more value than in the past. Outsourcing has suppressed wages while increasing profitability, which naturally contributes to inequality. And in an interconnected global trading system, economies of scale become more and more beneficial, which consolidates resources among the top competitors in a given field.

One interesting question is how the sharing economy will affect this phenomenon in the future. Will the creation of 'Ubers for everything' drive down wages even further by saturating labor markets with even more surplus human capital? Will it destabilize some of the entrenched social hierarchies in America by gutting the fortunes that legacy industries currently enjoy?

Another issue worth serious thought is which kinds of inequality are most harmful to society and why. Is stratification of the middle class and the hyper-rich the primary dilemma, simply because it accounts for the greatest resource disparity on paper? Or in practice is America's social cohesion damaged more by the smaller gaps between members of the other social classes?

Finally, how should concerns about inequality influence America's immigration policy? If we view the current situation as a problem, then importing more low-skilled laborers will exacerbate things. It's hardly a coincidence that the super-rich are some of the strongest advocates of comprehensive immigration reform. That may well be a desirable policy for humanitarian reasons, but we should remember the relevant externalities.

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#16

Some good points in the article, but I am not sure I agree with all of its conclusions. CEO pay is going through the roof because of a ratcheting-up effect that has been going for years. The board brings a consultant to evaluate the CEOs pay. Said consultant is in tight with board, and is looking for their next consulting gig. Not a chance they are going to recommend a significant cut, or a performance plan that is a…

I'd be happy with just a minimum vesting term for options, like 5 or 10 years. That way they're in the same boat as the rest of us schmucks who can't go golden-parachute job-hopping every few quarters.

Something that would motivate them to make decisions in the interest of the company's overall future, not just the next earnings report.

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#17

Some good points in the article, but I am not sure I agree with all of its conclusions. CEO pay is going through the roof because of a ratcheting-up effect that has been going for years. The board brings a consultant to evaluate the CEOs pay. Said consultant is in tight with board, and is looking for their next consulting gig. Not a chance they are going to recommend a significant cut, or a performance plan that is a…

There's no reason to limit that kind of obviously beneficial practice to just the CEO.

Imagine how beneficial it would be to apply it to all the employees. Company is earning money? You get your paycheck. Company is losing money? Cough up.

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#18

Some good points in the article, but I am not sure I agree with all of its conclusions. CEO pay is going through the roof because of a ratcheting-up effect that has been going for years. The board brings a consultant to evaluate the CEOs pay. Said consultant is in tight with board, and is looking for their next consulting gig. Not a chance they are going to recommend a significant cut, or a performance plan that is a…

There's no reason to limit that kind of obviously beneficial practice to just the CEO. Imagine how beneficial it would be to apply it to all the employees. Company is earning money? You get your paycheck. Company is losing money? Cough up.

Sounds like a co-op.

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#19
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Much of it is just leverage and financial engineering. Create derivatives of derivatives until you're essentially divorced from any underlying real asset. Still, it's all counted.

Pardon my ignorance of economics, but does US/FED policy and trillion dollar deficits have anything to do with this? Along with other countries printing more money? I remember reading Zimbabwe had the best performing stock market, but it was fueled through the "printing press". And they had no choice but to stop printing more.

Not specifically, though indirectly. The FEDs activities are intended to counter balance the lack of economic activity and investment capital coming out of the banks after the 2008 crises left them having to unwind their debt positions globally. Someone has to keep the fuel spigot on - usually that's the government but most did the opposite (austerity) due to politics.

What you're witnessing is a LOT of unused capital sitting around trying to find low risk returns. Interest rates are low so money is cheap, and there are only so many places to park capital, thus... Prices go up. Post 2008 Companies aren't investing as much in the real economy: wages, productive capital, etc. are stagnant. they're profit taking and retaining the profits. What's important to know is that while assets are trending higher historically , these are all mostly paper assets - they're indirectly tied to the real economy, and haven't completely become unhinged yet like in 2000.

See http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/07/08/upshot/welcome-to-the-e...

Zimbabwe was a case of hyperinflation. Which is what eventually happens when you have more money than productive capacity - prices of "real stuff" go up fast. But real inflation in the U.S. and Europe is very low by historical standards. We are not going to become Zimbabwe.

Re: Why the Rich Are So Much Richer

#20

Some good points in the article, but I am not sure I agree with all of its conclusions. CEO pay is going through the roof because of a ratcheting-up effect that has been going for years. The board brings a consultant to evaluate the CEOs pay. Said consultant is in tight with board, and is looking for their next consulting gig. Not a chance they are going to recommend a significant cut, or a performance plan that is a…

Things that would happen:

- CEO like any other investor is driven to apply mostly by speculation.

- CEOs would bail ship very quickly when things turn sour

- Failing companies would be doomed to fail as no one wants to be their CEO. Competition decreases as companies become more volatile on the downside.

As for the upside?

- HN and reddit pitchfork mobs are happy as they are less jealous of CEOs.

IMO, definitely worth it. Every company should implement this idea.

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