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Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets

toddwschneider.com

61–62 of 62 posts

Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worth pointing out that Rand Paul has 2.06 million likes and he's polling at 2.7%.

Yeah, I noticed that after posting (he wasn't on the original list). My guess is that he's attracted a following of libertarian college students who pollsters probably (rightly) don't give much weight. Maybe he's an example of how flawed the metric is, but maybe he'll be surprisingly resilient as the field winnows.

> My guess is that he's attracted a following of libertarian college students who pollsters probably (rightly) don't give much weight.

;_;

No really, why is it right to not give people like me much credence? Ron Paul made a lot of ground there.

Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I noticed that after posting (he wasn't on the original list). My guess is that he's attracted a following of libertarian college students who pollsters probably (rightly) don't give much weight. Maybe he's an example of how flawed the metric is, but maybe he'll be surprisingly resilient as the field winnows.

> My guess is that he's attracted a following of libertarian college students who pollsters probably (rightly) don't give much weight. ;_; No really, why is it right to not give people like me much credence? Ron Paul made a lot of ground there.

Younger 'voters' don't show up on Election Day, it's a time honored tradition. They make a lot of noise online and then forget to pull the lever..

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/05/08/six-take-awa...

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