51–60 of 62 posts
I'd like to see a history of betting markets in elections. How accurate have they been in the past?
IIRC, like polls, they are fairly accurate -- if you look at the state of the market at the last point before the election.
Earlier than that, not so much.
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Actually the rise of Trump, Carson, and to a lesser extend Fiorina shows that people are tired of the professional politician. Even if Bush or Clinton were the best candidates (I don't think they are), they look to be facing a huge headwind of people tired of the Bushs and Clintons.
The rise of Trump and the others simply means people want entertainment, that's all, the usa is turning into idiocracy.
I worked for a summer at Intrade.com during 2008. It was a very flawed company (and CEO) but it's a pity it's not around during this election. US Presidential elections were one of the few things were it had enough data and people putting money on it's markets that it's predictions were excellent. (Though I think in hindsight I got the job by telling John Delaney the immediate market highs for the Republican's post-P…
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html
...and their "U.S. Presidential Election Market"?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually the rise of Trump, Carson, and to a lesser extend Fiorina shows that people are tired of the professional politician. Even if Bush or Clinton were the best candidates (I don't think they are), they look to be facing a huge headwind of people tired of the Bushs and Clintons.
The rise of Trump and the others simply means people want entertainment, that's all, the usa is turning into idiocracy.
It kills me when I hear, "Obama hasn't done anything?". Yea, the legislature put on the brakes on everything? (Sorry about the mechanical metaphors--spent the weekend under a truck.)
A few years ago someone/group did a study, and concluded most voters literally don't know who's the best candidate? (Basically saying, the average voter is to--simple--to vote for the best person.) I think about that study often?
I'll admit, I don't know who's the best candidate for this country. It's basically a craps shoot? What I really take seriously is, "What kind of judges will this presidential candidate put in office, if elected?" And I know, history has shown that liberal/conservative candidates can go in opposite directions once they get into office. I just hope for the best?
I worked for a summer at Intrade.com during 2008. It was a very flawed company (and CEO) but it's a pity it's not around during this election. US Presidential elections were one of the few things were it had enough data and people putting money on it's markets that it's predictions were excellent. (Though I think in hindsight I got the job by telling John Delaney the immediate market highs for the Republican's post-P…
There was an interesting Planet Money episode lately about the history of betting on US presidential elections - http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/08/21/433557935/episo....
It hadn't occurred to me before how much participation in the public sphere gambling could (and previously did) generate.
I don't know if this has any special significance, but I think the number of FB/Twitter followers for the current frontrunners are interesting. I'll use Facebook numbers. Hillary Clinton - 1.3 million Jeb Bush - .26 million Donald Trump - 3.7 million Joe Biden - .85 million Bernie Sanders - 1.4 million Marco Rubio - .99 million John Kasich - .14 million Scott Walker - .36 million Ben Carson - 2.88 million No, I don't…
(Maybe that is why there are so many Republican candidates. If you can pass all the litmus tests, you can get millions of dollars to pay your friends to do things for you -- between the Koch brothers and the rest of them you can get a lot of free money if you are a Republican. I think Trump thinks he can make money off the publicity, which is a different business model.)
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The rise of Trump and the others simply means people want entertainment, that's all, the usa is turning into idiocracy.
I don't know why this comment is being downvotes? I sometimes feel the average voter actually thinks the president has all the power? He/she is just the spoke, maybe a few bearings of the hub, on a big wheel? It kills me when I hear, "Obama hasn't done anything?". Yea, the legislature put on the brakes on everything? (Sorry about the mechanical metaphors--spent the weekend under a truck.) A few years ago someone/grou…
The problem is politics is a lot like religion where logic leaves the room in favor of polarizing opinions. You mention that Obama does not have all the power so it is not his fault that some things were not done, yet there are people still blaming Bush for everything under the sun 7-8 years later.
The difference I have from who you replied to is that I think yes people are smarter and tired of career politicians. They know DC is screwed up and that no side is any better than the other (anyone who thinks Bush/Cheney had all sorts of back door dealings for their friends can in no way support Hillary). They all just want to consolidate power and help our their friends. That is where someone like Trump comes in. He's out there, but he's not them.
I don't know if this has any special significance, but I think the number of FB/Twitter followers for the current frontrunners are interesting. I'll use Facebook numbers. Hillary Clinton - 1.3 million Jeb Bush - .26 million Donald Trump - 3.7 million Joe Biden - .85 million Bernie Sanders - 1.4 million Marco Rubio - .99 million John Kasich - .14 million Scott Walker - .36 million Ben Carson - 2.88 million No, I don't…
Prediction markets often break Republican because there are a lot of rich idiots who want to see Republicans win. (Maybe that is why there are so many Republican candidates. If you can pass all the litmus tests, you can get millions of dollars to pay your friends to do things for you -- between the Koch brothers and the rest of them you can get a lot of free money if you are a Republican. I think Trump thinks he can…
If you campaign with free money you are basically marketing your book with free money.
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Followed link, turns out all but one President can be traced to... King John, the one in the Robin Hood story, born December 24, 1166. Which in practical terms translates to "no", they are not related.
Per the link, the exception is Martin Van Buren.