How depressing that a country of 300+ million individuals has candidates from the same families again and again.
I hope it is Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump. Not because I like Trump but because it would make Sanders more likely to win.
Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
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Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#12How depressing that a country of 300+ million individuals has candidates from the same families again and again.
Ah, but the pool isn't really 300+ million. It takes a person with the qualities of a lawyer, used car salesperson, con artist and book maker to even consider running.
I guess this is why many (even intelligent) people think that their favorite candidate is honest.
Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#13I don't know if this has any special significance, but I think the number of FB/Twitter followers for the current frontrunners are interesting. I'll use Facebook numbers. Hillary Clinton - 1.3 million Jeb Bush - .26 million Donald Trump - 3.7 million Joe Biden - .85 million Bernie Sanders - 1.4 million Marco Rubio - .99 million John Kasich - .14 million Scott Walker - .36 million Ben Carson - 2.88 million No, I don't…
If that's your metric, it's probably worth running them through a few filters to detect authenticity of their followers:
Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#14I don't think people understand how close presidential elections are in the US (even after the nightmare in Florida with the supreme court picking Bush as the winner).
The idea of Trump picking the next few supreme court judges is nauseating.
Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#15How depressing that a country of 300+ million individuals has candidates from the same families again and again.
Right because two sons of a president being a president is exactly the same as a non-blood relation of a president becoming president.
The entire Bush family (and it's rather big) is in politics, except the women.
How many Clintons are in politics?
Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#16I don't know if this has any special significance, but I think the number of FB/Twitter followers for the current frontrunners are interesting. I'll use Facebook numbers. Hillary Clinton - 1.3 million Jeb Bush - .26 million Donald Trump - 3.7 million Joe Biden - .85 million Bernie Sanders - 1.4 million Marco Rubio - .99 million John Kasich - .14 million Scott Walker - .36 million Ben Carson - 2.88 million No, I don't…
Be careful with using social media followers/engagement as a metric, because it's an easily manipulated stat. According to some recent stories, a million of H Clinton's followers are fake or fakeish users, actually putting her closer to Jeb's actual number.
Also, with the increasing rise of sock puppetry, I would not be surprised to see these sort of artificially inflated numbers are not just organic, but a planned/hired out part of a public relations campaign.
Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#17I don't know if this has any special significance, but I think the number of FB/Twitter followers for the current frontrunners are interesting. I'll use Facebook numbers. Hillary Clinton - 1.3 million Jeb Bush - .26 million Donald Trump - 3.7 million Joe Biden - .85 million Bernie Sanders - 1.4 million Marco Rubio - .99 million John Kasich - .14 million Scott Walker - .36 million Ben Carson - 2.88 million No, I don't…
This is pretty interesting. Consider turning into a short blog post?
Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#18How depressing that a country of 300+ million individuals has candidates from the same families again and again.
Actually the rise of Trump, Carson, and to a lesser extend Fiorina shows that people are tired of the professional politician. Even if Bush or Clinton were the best candidates (I don't think they are), they look to be facing a huge headwind of people tired of the Bushs and Clintons.
The rise of Trump and the others simply means people want entertainment, that's all, the usa is turning into idiocracy.
Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#19Interestingly, with Joe Biden in the range (10%, 13.5%) to win the nomination, and (7.7%, 8.3%) to win the Presidency, the lowest his electability could be is 7.7% / 13.5% = 57% and the highest it could be is 8.3% / 10.0% = 83% so the market seems to be pricing a probability in the range of (57%, 83%) for Biden to be elected president if he won the nomination - compared to Hillary Clinton's range of (56.9%, 57.7%) I…
A 4th option could be:
If Biden defeats the established nominee, he must have an exceptionally well run campaign making him more electable. That is by winning the nomination Clinton has just met expectations but Biden exceeds most expectations.
Re: Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets
#20I don't know if this has any special significance, but I think the number of FB/Twitter followers for the current frontrunners are interesting. I'll use Facebook numbers. Hillary Clinton - 1.3 million Jeb Bush - .26 million Donald Trump - 3.7 million Joe Biden - .85 million Bernie Sanders - 1.4 million Marco Rubio - .99 million John Kasich - .14 million Scott Walker - .36 million Ben Carson - 2.88 million No, I don't…
If that's your metric, it's probably worth running them through a few filters to detect authenticity of their followers: https://www.twitteraudit.com/
That site thinks I'm a fake, so I question the accuracy of its metrics.