Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
radar.oreilly.com
Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
1–10 of 35 posts
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#2This guy's amazing! He managed to get data up to year 2020! I wonder if he can get information on other things to come in the next 10 years ...
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#3There are debatable aspects of climate change - but I hope these clear, data-driven, illustrative works help convince the tech community that if you can trust the science in the papers provided, that the outcome is clear.
I also like to mention the decision matrix - I forget the term in game-theory - but the possibility space is 2x2 - either global warming is man made or isn't on one axis, and on another axis is that humanity acts on this information is doesn't.
In the case that there is no man made global warming and we act, then the outcome is still good. Moreover - even if the warming is from natural causes, trying to understand and alter the global climate is an important skill to have for a species with ambitions to survive for thousands more years, at least.
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#4This guy's amazing! He managed to get data up to year 2020! I wonder if he can get information on other things to come in the next 10 years ...
What are you referring to? Maybe I'm missing something, but the chart stops at 2020, but the data graph stops at 2009...
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#5There were 877 new snowfall records set this week. That would be rather unlikely if we are experiencing catastrophic warming. Also there is this (from Watts Up With That)
"Keep in mind, everyone sorta has to admit that CO2 by itself doesn’t do much. Even at current concentrations, it’s a teensy weensy bit of the atmosphere (.00038) that soaks up only a teensy weensy bit of the sun’s long-wave radiation at a particular high altitude in the tropics (the tropics account for about 80% of the Earth’s energy budget). Moreover, we have long since passed CO2 concentrations which are more than sufficient to flag down 99% of that wavelength."
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#6There are debatable aspects of climate change - but I hope these clear, data-driven, illustrative works help convince the tech community that if you can trust the science in the papers provided, that the outcome is clear. I also like to mention the decision matrix - I forget the term in game-theory - but the possibility space is 2x2 - either global warming is man made or isn't on one axis, and on another axis is that…
Your analysis of the 2x2 possibility space is simplistic and wrong. I'll attempt to quickly illustrate this.
We assume the desired goal of mitigating global warming is to save the lives of poor of those in poor countries. An argument can be made that the relatively rich will face changes, but will be able to adapt.
So the do nothing and no global warming scenario, while on its surface may not seem to have any negative effects, its effects in fact are quite devastating. The money and attention that we are focusing on global warming could be used to address problems that are actually killing people today. Some simple examples, are vaccination, education, disease research, building infrastructure etc.
So the question is best phrased as giving what we know now, what can we do to mitigate risk and save the most people. Some solutions are:
0. Family Planning & Birth Control
1. Nuclear power
2. Research into drought resistant crops and crops that can grow in warmer environments.
3. Improved monitoring of the earth
4. Research into new energy technologies, so that they can be deployed when they are mature enough.
So I'm not advocating any action over any other, I'm merely pointing out that your analysis is heavily flawed.
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#7There are debatable aspects of climate change - but I hope these clear, data-driven, illustrative works help convince the tech community that if you can trust the science in the papers provided, that the outcome is clear. I also like to mention the decision matrix - I forget the term in game-theory - but the possibility space is 2x2 - either global warming is man made or isn't on one axis, and on another axis is that…
> In the case that there is no man made global warming and we act, then the outcome is still good.
That actually depends on the "act". Any "analysis" that doesn't have such a dependence is bogus, even if it is in an easy to understand format.
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#8There are debatable aspects of climate change - but I hope these clear, data-driven, illustrative works help convince the tech community that if you can trust the science in the papers provided, that the outcome is clear. I also like to mention the decision matrix - I forget the term in game-theory - but the possibility space is 2x2 - either global warming is man made or isn't on one axis, and on another axis is that…
> In the case that there is no man made global warming and we act, then the outcome is still good
This is the kind of statement that fuels skeptics. If the cost of "we act" exceeds the benefit, it is not "good." Skeptics are suspicious that some are using global warming to advance unrelated causes which (conveniently) require the same actions; namely, higher taxes, more regulation, bigger government.
They might further ask why, if, in your possibility space, there is natural warming, are we sure that we should act to reverse it? That is, there is a chance that a slightly warmer planet might itself have more net benefits than costs.
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#9There are debatable aspects of climate change - but I hope these clear, data-driven, illustrative works help convince the tech community that if you can trust the science in the papers provided, that the outcome is clear. I also like to mention the decision matrix - I forget the term in game-theory - but the possibility space is 2x2 - either global warming is man made or isn't on one axis, and on another axis is that…
We can make the same matrix for other hazards/mitigation schemes too. For example, we should spend 100 billion dollars on an asteroid defense system!
See also Pascal's wager.
Re: Decoding Climate Change with Perl, gnuplot and Google Earth
#10There were 877 new snowfall records set this week. That would be rather unlikely if we are experiencing catastrophic warming. Also there is this (from Watts Up With That) "Keep in mind, everyone sorta has to admit that CO2 by itself doesn’t do much. Even at current concentrations, it’s a teensy weensy bit of the atmosphere (.00038) that soaks up only a teensy weensy bit of the sun’s long-wave radiation at a particula…
Sigh. Snowfall tracks atmosphere water content, not temperature. In almost all climates, the "coldest winters" are uniformly the dryest. Oddly, it seems like the people who parade this canard (despite constant refutation by those who know what they're talking about) are also the least likely to be alarmed by heat waves...