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Why This Tech Bubble Is Worse Than 2000

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Re: Why This Tech Bubble Is Worse Than 2000

#11
I think the reality is that there are a lot of angels that will lose a lot of money on their investments. However, most of those angels are wealthy individuals, and as a percentage of the total amount of investment capital across all of the various investment opportunities in the market, it's still a relatively small amount. Think of it like any other high-risk investment vehicle.

For the crowdfunding equity part, I think that things like kickstarter are vastly more pernicious - there's even less due diligence than there potentially will be for crowdfunded equity. But also, if the amounts invested really are $5k, $5k investments are not going to bankrupt people.

If we compare this versus the tech bubble in 2000, in that situation thousands of people lost their jobs, and many people who were playing the stock market lost a lot of money, regardless of whether they had liquidity or not.

So I guess it depends on your definition of "worse". I suspect that it's "worse" for angel investors in that there are many more startups for them to lose money in, but definitely not nearly as bad for the overall pool of people who invest in companies.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble Is Worse Than 2000

#13

Isn't it kind of ironic that he says that people don't know what they're getting into when they invest in small apps and tech startups, and then plugs his own app startup at the end of the article?

No, it's not ironic, it's hypocritical at worst, and a coincidence at best.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble Is Worse Than 2000

#14

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the 225,000 angel investors the author counts are all going bust. Their investments are illiquid and effectively worthless. How is this scenario worse than that of the late '90s, when the bubble affected the public market, and millions of people's investments evaporated overnight?

It isn't. In fact, it's almost certainly better.

All else being equal, the total loss to the economy when a doomed company goes under is the same. If $50m was invested, that $50m has been lost, almost always with nothing at all to show for it. Of course, if no debt was involved, that money didn't go away, it just went somewhere else. Most likely, since it was paid out as wages, that somewhere else was China.

The ability to sell a worthless security at a loss as opposed to holding it until it is eventually canceled when the corporation is wound down does not change this. All it does is spread the loss out: the first investor loses whatever he put in less what he gets for the stock later, and whoever buys it at that point eats the rest of the loss (or at least until she sells it at a loss too, and so on). The total loss doesn't change; all that changes is the distribution of losses across the economy.

However, it's not that simple. An IPO invariably entails the issuance of shares that did not exist previously. That is, some portion of the raise is new investment. When the company fails, all investment made in it is lost, so any additional investment increases the total loss to the economy. So the world actually becomes poorer when a company is able to go public before failing (or, more broadly, each additional round of funding whether public or private increases the total loss). The longer a bubble is allowed to inflate, the greater the total loss to malinvestment.

So, is it better for 225k "qualified" investors to eat the entire loss, or for several million retail investors to share in a somewhat larger loss? Your answer probably depends on which you are. Overall, though, all that matters is how much total investment was made in companies that fail without ever paying a dividend.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble Is Worse Than 2000

#15
post #2

> Because the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity. > In the tech bubble it was Broadcast.com, AOL, Netscape, etc. Today its, Uber, Twitter, Facebook, etc. Umm I think there certainly is value in Facebook and all their apps of WhatsApp, Instagram and FaceBook. Just link bait article to me.

You're misreading him. Those are examples of "an existing success story" that other startups are comparing themselves to.

Yes, nobody except Mark Cuban would consider broadcast.com a success story, but if I got rich off selling a company, I'd consider it a success too.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble Is Worse Than 2000

#17
With the kind of money he has, Cuban should know that Angel investing is nothing new. I was part of a startup in the late 90s that was entirely funded by angel investments. These private investments are just business as usual. The only new thing is the organization of micro investment angels to allow investment from people with less money. Personally I think those are a bad idea and smart people would be better putting their money in an index fund, but I'm not a big risk taker.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble Is Worse Than 2000

#18
post #9
post #2

> Because the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity. > In the tech bubble it was Broadcast.com, AOL, Netscape, etc. Today its, Uber, Twitter, Facebook, etc. Umm I think there certainly is value in Facebook and all their apps of WhatsApp, Instagram and FaceBook. Just link bait article to me.

I agree, it seems a bit like link bait. From what I understood, though, the author's point has some merit -- in stocks, you are at least always able to cash out, to change your mind, to have new priorities. In the modern form of start-up investing, your fate becomes inextricably bound with that of the start-up, with your only options being an eventual pay-out or loss of your investment. I'm not saying I think this in…

You are basically talking about risk vs. reward, and bring up an interesting point. In the original tech bubble of 2000 the broad market ended up participating in highly risky investments without fully understanding the risk because every company was IPOing.

It is a much different environment today where the majority of the very high early risk is being shouldered by private investment. IMHO, this is how it should be and in no way is nearly as bad as the 2000 bubble.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble Is Worse Than 2000

#20
post #2

> Because the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity. > In the tech bubble it was Broadcast.com, AOL, Netscape, etc. Today its, Uber, Twitter, Facebook, etc. Umm I think there certainly is value in Facebook and all their apps of WhatsApp, Instagram and FaceBook. Just link bait article to me.

You're misreading him. Those are examples of "an existing success story" that other startups are comparing themselves to. Yes, nobody except Mark Cuban would consider broadcast.com a success story, but if I got rich off selling a company, I'd consider it a success too.

Why wouldn't anyone consider it a success? Broadcast.com was streaming movies in the 90s! It was way ahead of its time. Unfortunately Yahoo squandered it (and Cuban himself thought it was a dead-end business, oh how he was wrong).
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