Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy • Hacker News Board

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#21

Post by adventured » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 3:52 PM UTC

aurelianito wrote: post #4

Reading it reminded me of the articles in the same tone that were written against Argentina, also asking for more misery for the people here. They were wrong. Argentina recovered from e 2001 crisis by kicking the IMF out of the country. The IMF uses this kind of discourse to oppress countries. I hope China's government will be wise enough to not let the IMF bankrupt them.

Argentina didn't recover by kicking the IMF out. Their growth over that time is almost identical to Chile and Brazil. It began at the exact same time all economies began expanding, including Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador as well. The expansion was a macro effect, not something Argentina did.

Worse, Argentina's GDP has hardly moved in 20 years on an inflation adjusted basis. Their debt is soaring faster than during the 2001-02 crisis. [1] Last year their economy had 40% to 60% inflation [2], and is in dire condition. I'd say Argentina is doing a fine job of bankrupting itself. I'm just wondering who they're going to blame this time. [3]

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/argentina-...

[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-07/argentina-...

[3] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-07-17/-no-why-ar...

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#22

Post by irln » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 4:03 PM UTC

PeterisP wrote: post #2

One significant way where a free market economy has an advantage in efficient resource allocation over a planned economy is not the priority allocation of resources to successful enterprises/groups/economic niches (both styles can do that), but a rapid, ruthless deallocation of resources from unsuccessful enterprises, so they can then be used elsewhere. Planned economies could do that in theory, but this has always b…

This is NOT a sarcastic comment nor a defense of centrally planned economies: which country(s) has a free market economy post the 2008 financial crisis?

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#23

Post by gress » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 4:06 PM UTC

IIAOPSW wrote: post #14

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's evening in China right now, I assume everyone in the USA is still asleep. Why would parent not be in china, there are plenty of Chinese in China who speak English well enough, I work with them. Of course, the poster could be in Europe, but what does it matter? Compare say china daily (an English version of xinhua mostly) to NYT, and you'll see a vast difference on bias and reporting standards, where NYT is vastl…

Here's a quick (terse) summary of what happened up-thread: "I'm physically in China and I find that the NYT reports on China often don't match the reality that I see." "Shut up xinhua shill" Comparing the quality of xinhua and NYT is completely tangential to the point I was trying to make. I'm not saying we can't or shouldn't have a serious discussion about China. I am saying that such a conversation is not happening…

How does the contigenics 'see' the lack of zombie factories? Are they flying in a helicopter to fact-check the NYT? I think not.

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#24

Post by gress » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 4:09 PM UTC

IIAOPSW wrote: post #19

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is obvious that contigenics is in China, they admitted that in their post; you were only calling out nationality, but that isn't even relevant. If they don't have a VPN, like I don't, where else are they getting news from? NYT is blocked, WSJ is blocked, BBC is blocked. You don't have to tell me to "stop reading NYT" because I can't! So your whole argument makes an assumption that is not even technically correct.…

You aren't addressing what contigenics said. You are just filling in whatever you wish they had said and attacking that. This is called a straw-man argument. Let's look again at the source material: "Wow, yet another anti-China article from NYT. I can't get over the volume and frequency. Things look pretty good on the ground here!" No one said anything about the availability of news sources. Contigenics simply pointe…

Where do you think contingenics is getting their information if not from the local press?

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#25

Post by fredgrott » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 4:27 PM UTC

So basically they need to invest in the economy they cannot plan for consumer..

the only similar case Germany during WWII 250% or more debt over GDP but GDP was not expanding due sole effort on military building

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#26

Post by ghaff » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 4:56 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #21

aurelianito wrote: post #4

Reading it reminded me of the articles in the same tone that were written against Argentina, also asking for more misery for the people here. They were wrong. Argentina recovered from e 2001 crisis by kicking the IMF out of the country. The IMF uses this kind of discourse to oppress countries. I hope China's government will be wise enough to not let the IMF bankrupt them.

Argentina didn't recover by kicking the IMF out. Their growth over that time is almost identical to Chile and Brazil. It began at the exact same time all economies began expanding, including Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador as well. The expansion was a macro effect, not something Argentina did. Worse, Argentina's GDP has hardly moved in 20 years on an inflation adjusted basis. Their debt is soaring faster than during the…

This article from The Economist a while back [1] gives what seems to be a pretty good rundown of Argentina's rather sad economic and political history.

[1] http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-...

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#27

Post by tellthetruth1 » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 5:04 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #9

IIAOPSW wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that the person above wrote in English and is on this site means they are likely an expat/ABC. Thus your accusation that they get all their news from xinhua is a laughable ad hominid.

It's evening in China right now, I assume everyone in the USA is still asleep. Why would parent not be in china, there are plenty of Chinese in China who speak English well enough, I work with them. Of course, the poster could be in Europe, but what does it matter? Compare say china daily (an English version of xinhua mostly) to NYT, and you'll see a vast difference on bias and reporting standards, where NYT is vastl…

"where NYT is vastly more professional than the shill Chinese press."

Pfffft...

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#28

Post by AJ007 » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 5:08 PM UTC

aurelianito wrote: post #4

Reading it reminded me of the articles in the same tone that were written against Argentina, also asking for more misery for the people here. They were wrong. Argentina recovered from e 2001 crisis by kicking the IMF out of the country. The IMF uses this kind of discourse to oppress countries. I hope China's government will be wise enough to not let the IMF bankrupt them.

China isn't dependent on external creditors. Greece would be a better comparison.

If one wishes to participate in global trade then unfortunately there isn't much a country can do once it has borrowed money in a foreign currency. Germany just finished paying off debt dating back to World War I reparations last year. Greece, Argentina may have a hundred years to go before they are back to "normal."

China is more in a situation where they have let things get far out of balance. It is hard to sympathize. Irreversible environmental destruction on a massive scale has occurred across the world trying to rush the delivery of raw material so that China could construct infrastructure rapidly. Much of this may not have even been built in a quality that will last for a long time.

Fast growth always creates imbalances -- whether you are a country or a private company. China now has to decide how they will re-balance. For now they are making the decisions for themselves, however as a participant in global trade the actions of many other countries will provide constraints.

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#29

Post by DenisM » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 6:06 PM UTC

contingencies wrote: post #3

Wow, yet another anti-China article from NYT. I can't get over the volume and frequency. Things look pretty good on the ground here!

Do you think it's a conspiracy?

Re: Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese Economy

#30

Post by toomuchtodo » Sat, Aug 29, 2015, 6:38 PM UTC

irln wrote: post #22

PeterisP wrote: post #2

One significant way where a free market economy has an advantage in efficient resource allocation over a planned economy is not the priority allocation of resources to successful enterprises/groups/economic niches (both styles can do that), but a rapid, ruthless deallocation of resources from unsuccessful enterprises, so they can then be used elsewhere. Planned economies could do that in theory, but this has always b…

This is NOT a sarcastic comment nor a defense of centrally planned economies: which country(s) has a free market economy post the 2008 financial crisis?

You could even argue (and I don't believe this is a bad thing) that the way the US government handled GM's default was very much a "planned economy" sort of move, which resulted not only in the successful exit from crisis for the new organization, but also the prevention of a cascading economic failure (EDIT: hundreds of thousands of jobs were at stake).

A completely free economy nor a planned economy are ideal; a mix of the two with proper leadership seems to be the path to success. (EDIT: Most importantly, those at the top must be genuine, honest, and transparent. Corruption is a poison in this case, and must be avoided at all costs. You must want success for the stakeholders.)