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Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

nytimes.com

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Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#101

Post by csixty4 »

cryoshon wrote: post #19

It's hard for me to tell whether this is just a "correction" (massive deflation after exuberance) or an actual meltdown. I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all. "The New York Stock Exchange said it will halt trading for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drops 7 percent." [0] How is it fair that the marke…

> How is it fair that the markets get put on pause if they're failing? I really don't understand.

The "circuit breaker" was put in place in response to the 1987 "Black Friday" event. It was the early days of automated trading, and computers got the lion's share of the blame. The "circuit breaker" is intended to shut down machines that can drive the market downward faster than people can react. It also shuts out people making panic decisions without thinking at all.

Basically, everyone gets a "time out".

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#102

Post by savanaly »

kevando wrote: post #85
code4tee wrote: post #7

Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…

Bubble? http://i.imgur.com/lQt3Ylr.jpg

Now extend the timeline 100 years into the past, it will look a lot more encouraging. Or a 1000 years, it will look positively sunny.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#103

Post by mikeash »

logicchains wrote: post #71
Cshelton wrote: post #6

I think it's a bad sign when they can write an article and get it out in under 25 minutes...but by the time they release the article, the market has gone up by half the amount it fell on opening. This market is severely flawed.

Would you consider it less flawed if it hadn't rebounded after the drop? I thought being able to recover quickly from market shocks was considered a good thing.

I don't understand your critique. It's a good thing that the market rebounded but how does that make the article better? It's like writing an article about a guy falling out of a plane and how he's going to go splat when he hits the ground, and by the time you hit "publish" the guy has already opened his parachute and landed safely. It's great that he survived but the article is bad!

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#104

Post by kchoudhu »

chmaynard wrote: post #69
kchoudhu wrote: post #37

Oh look, an opportunity to buy.

Long-term investors who bought stocks after the 1987 crash did very well. It took a few years, but the market fully recovered.

I thank my lucky stars every day that I started saving right around/before the crash in 2008.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#105

Post by cryoshon »

rcavezza wrote: post #47
cryoshon wrote: post #19

It's hard for me to tell whether this is just a "correction" (massive deflation after exuberance) or an actual meltdown. I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all. "The New York Stock Exchange said it will halt trading for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drops 7 percent." [0] How is it fair that the marke…

Can you elaborate on your prediction? I'm interested in the details.

A few factors that were extremely evident from 6+ months ago:

1. US stock market is massively overvalued due to being propped up by QE for years

2. China's growth rate is largely fabricated

3. Russia's oil economy is finished as a result of sanctions

4. European troubles with Greece are undermining confidence in the EU

5. Japan's economy is weak due to demographic slide

6. Nigeria's growth is weakened due to instability

7. Consumer demand in the US and much of Europe is weak due to poor wages and high real unemployment

8. US stocks are being pumped as much as possible by hollowing out companies for short term gains, handicapping their long term capacity to keep providing gains

The actual date was picked "7 years-ish after the last financial meltdown" because sometimes these things follow roughly 7 year cycles.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#106

Post by [deleted] »

code4tee wrote: post #7

Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…

[deleted]

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#107

Post by forgetsusername »

code4tee wrote: post #7

Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…

>people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time

"People" are expecting a correction 100% of the time, so the forecast is pretty much useless. If it was truly anticipated, it wouldn't happen. Action, like that which occurred at opening this morning, is sheer panic.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#108

Post by kchoudhu »

FilterSweep wrote: post #51
MCRed wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Warren Buffett says "If you're buying hamburger your whole life, do you want the price to be low or high?" For me, the situation is such a mess that I don't think we're close yet to what I would consider a buying opportunity. One saying is "buy when there's blood in the streets"... but I don't think we're there yet. Downvoted and slow banned. Why do I even contribute to this site?

When I saw the articles in my local newspaper over the weekend of this happening, I figured its almost time for me, a fresh college graduate, to jump into the markets. But considering how profound the issues of Chinese Real Estate bubble are - they were paying people to make it look like empty, recently-built, luxury apartment complexes had people actually living in them - I think the worst is yet to come and I'm sti…

I'll tell you what I told my little sister (who is in your shoes, i.e. just starting to save after graduating from college): you won't be using the money you're investing for 30+ years. Just invest, stop trying to time markets.

It's going to be okay.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#109

Post by drcode »

rdudek wrote: post #57

Stocks are rebounding. Someone made it off like a bandit this morning.

Disney stock was down almost 10% this morning. HOW POSSIBLY can it be rational for Disney stock to drop 10% because of a single day of rough trading in the Shanghai market, especially given how much Disney has dropped already in the last few months? I considered that the buying opportunity of the year. (knock on wood...)

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#110

Post by forgetsusername »

kevando wrote: post #85
code4tee wrote: post #7

Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…

Bubble? http://i.imgur.com/lQt3Ylr.jpg

Utterly useless to show a growth graph spanning decades without a log scale.
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