I would recommend an article by George Magnus called "The Chinese model is nearing its end", which was printed in the FT on Friday. You can bypass the paywall if you Google for it.
Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
81–90 of 433 posts
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#82Stocks are rebounding. Someone made it off like a bandit this morning.
Could be a dead cat bounce:
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am also interested in seeing the data which claims that the US economy is quite healthy right now. The unemployment rate is a juked stat; check out the labor force participation rates if you want the full story. A primer: labor force participation got smashed in the Great Financial Crisis, and still hasn't recovered.
The participation rate is down 3.3% from 2005 [1]. Given the huge shift in demographics over the last 10 years [2], I don't think that's a data point that screams "smashed." [1] http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 [2] Lost of baby boomers retiring and Gen X being such a small demo compared to the boomers and the millennials.
The demographic shift angle doesn't make sense. The boomers are slowly exiting the workforce, sure-- on an individual basis, as they can choose to retire at different times. Many are having to defer retirement or not retire. This isn't an orderly mass exit, it's a trickle.
Millenials are a far larger generation than the boomers, and are rapidly leaving college and attempting to enter the workforce-- 100% of them are trying to enter the workforce at the same time, immediately after graduation day. The fact that labor participation rates haven't stabilized or even increased in response to their population level attempts to enter the workforce shows that there really are not enough jobs to go around.
Jobs lost in the early depression haven't returned, and there are many more people out and about looking for them now than there were before. Boomers are retiring, but their children are desperate to take their place, which isn't actually possible.
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
PS... I don't deny that a subset of the US economy/workforce got hit really hard in 2008 and never recovered. But when you look at the US economy as a whole things are doing quite well.
> when you look at the US economy as a whole things are doing quite well To be more accurate, when you look at the propaganda spewed by the mainstream media, everything seems to be fine, because they keep spinning everything in a positive light. In the US, for starters, there's a huge bubble in stocks, and an echo bubble in housing. There's a massive property bubble in Canada and Australia, and so on. With interest r…
We have a democrat who is president, and who took over after a crisis during the term of a republican. (never mind that he was part of the cause of the crisis with his 1990s era "not lending to people who can't repay is racist" lawsuit against banks)... so the liberals of HN are highly motivated to believe that democrats are "responsible" and that they have "fixed the economy" after republicans "wrecked it".
So when you point out that the king has no clothes, naturally you get downvoted.
The current mess of the US economy is due to the choices of many politicians, in congress and the presidency, from both parties. Neither party should get a passing grade in this regard.
This is why we need the government out of the economy, and let it work. Hell if it weren't for government the bad banks would have failed in 2008-- and we would have had a real recovery afterwards.
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#85Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…
Bubble? http://i.imgur.com/lQt3Ylr.jpg
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#86I'm assuming the Fed will not raise interest rates now.
I'm struggling to think of what the Fed can even do in this situation. I guess they can either 1) dig themselves deeper into a hole and issue another round of QE to inject liquidity into the markets or 2) do absolutely nothing. Though they are probably loathe to do nothing as then it would seem like they don't have a solution. Whatever happens, it will be an interesting/exciting time in non-traditional monetary polic…
Well, at this point everyone is expecting them to raise rates, so not raising would, in effect, be doing something.
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#87Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…
Bubble? http://i.imgur.com/lQt3Ylr.jpg
Central bank bubble.
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wages are shit for workers and thus consumption/demand are weak... this undermines the Chinese economy, which in turn undermines the US economy. Labor force participation is also garbage. Savings rates are a bit moot when tons of people are living paycheck to paycheck, also. It's not 2007-2008, but it's not quite 1998 either.
Capitalism at it's finest. The race to the bottom will eventually force someones (possibly everyones) hand. The mechanism that will drive change (either violent/non-violent) is just a matter of who blinks first.
> Capitalism at it's finest. The race to the bottom will eventually
What are you going on about? If capitalism is a race to the bottom, we would have reached it a long time ago.
Capitalism isn't new. It's been around for a while.
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#89I think it's a bad sign when they can write an article and get it out in under 25 minutes...but by the time they release the article, the market has gone up by half the amount it fell on opening. This market is severely flawed.
I'm not rich enough to be an investor but I agree, some kind of cool down system should be required.
Why was this down voted?
Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
#90I wonder if any of this could be related to recent tensions in Korea? http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/21/asia/koreas-tensions/
Why was this down voted?