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Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

nytimes.com

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Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#61

Post by Retric »

cryoshon wrote: post #19

It's hard for me to tell whether this is just a "correction" (massive deflation after exuberance) or an actual meltdown. I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all. "The New York Stock Exchange said it will halt trading for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drops 7 percent." [0] How is it fair that the marke…

-markets get put on pause

The day to day stock market has limited liquidity. Most of the time people have enough buy and sell limit orders to keep the price reasonably stable. (Sell if price reaches X, or buy if it falls to Y.) But, if the price falls say 10% more people not actively looking at stock prices are going to get in on the action.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#62

Post by at-fates-hands »

cryoshon wrote: post #19

It's hard for me to tell whether this is just a "correction" (massive deflation after exuberance) or an actual meltdown. I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all. "The New York Stock Exchange said it will halt trading for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drops 7 percent." [0] How is it fair that the marke…

>> I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all.

Depends on where you invested your money. A lot of 401K's lost close to 40% of their value after the 2008 crash. A lot of people near retirement had high exposure since most of their investments were in equities (90% or more) and lost even more.

I'm pretty sure this is just a correction. You should get concerned when the market goes down and stays down. As pointed out earlier, the market has already gained back most of the losses already.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#63

Post by swalsh »

cryoshon wrote: post #19

It's hard for me to tell whether this is just a "correction" (massive deflation after exuberance) or an actual meltdown. I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all. "The New York Stock Exchange said it will halt trading for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drops 7 percent." [0] How is it fair that the marke…

A pause makes sense, if you study this history of sell off's, they're often emotional... and sometimes technological. A pause gives the market time to recollect itself.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#64

Post by roymurdock »

code4tee wrote: post #29
roymurdock wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interested to know which statistics you based this opinion of the US economy being "quite healthy" on. Anything deeper than top level unemployment rate?

Debt to income ratios, capitalization of companies, worker productivity, oil prices, savings rates, more healthy housing prices (in most areas), foreclosure rates, industrial orders, housing starts, .... This isn't 2007-08.

Would you mind providing some color around these metrics, or pointing me towards a source that paints the picture in greater detail?

I don't mean to be snarky or sarcastic, I'm just generally uninformed and would like to develop a more nuanced opinion.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#65

Post by th0waway »

valarauca1 wrote: post #34
kailuowang wrote: post #8

The global panic might have a good reason, this is probably the first time China goes through a true financial crisis. Their ability to deal with such situation is by and large unknown to anyone.

China (as we know it) can't suffering economic down turn. The Communists largely maintain power though the threat of Its us or chaos . Which before and during the communist rise China was pretty bad off. This is more or less the social contract we make your life better , you give up your rights . If it becomes clear the central government can't control the economy. We'll likely see a rise in anti-government protests.

more like "obey or die"

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#66

Post by rorykoehler »

cryoshon wrote: post #40
code4tee wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Debt to income ratios, capitalization of companies, worker productivity, oil prices, savings rates, more healthy housing prices (in most areas), foreclosure rates, industrial orders, housing starts, .... This isn't 2007-08.

Wages are shit for workers and thus consumption/demand are weak... this undermines the Chinese economy, which in turn undermines the US economy. Labor force participation is also garbage. Savings rates are a bit moot when tons of people are living paycheck to paycheck, also. It's not 2007-2008, but it's not quite 1998 either.

Capitalism at it's finest. The race to the bottom will eventually force someones (possibly everyones) hand. The mechanism that will drive change (either violent/non-violent) is just a matter of who blinks first.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#67

Post by saryant »

kasey_junk wrote: post #35
zrail wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> even the premise of index buying requires some smart timing Or just investing a regular amount of new money on a regular schedule, which will even out the timing issues.

This is only true if your investment horizon is sufficiently long (I expect you know this, but it's important to point out for correctness).

(Not writing this for your benefit but for passer-by who may not be familiar)

The unwritten context of "buy and hold an index fund" is that it's for retirement—people with 20, 30 or 40 years before they actually need the money. That's enough time to ride out swings in the market.

If you need the money to buy a house or start a company in a few years, keep it in cash.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#68

Post by cryoshon »

ramblerman wrote: post #43
andrelaszlo wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all." If you predicted it, then it should at least make you rich? :)

Thank you. This cognitive fallacy of "I knew" and "I was saying it long ago" etc... really irks me. Especially in something like stocks you are 100% right, put your money where your mouth is and spare us the story of your grand predictive prowesses.

I mean, if you want, you can hunt through my comments on this site and reddit/voat around 6 months ago and find me saying then that there would be a crash around this time.

I'm not going to claim that I have any deep technical knowledge of the stock market, but the writing has been on the wall for quite a while.

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