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Microsoft is Dead

paulgraham.com

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141–150 of 454 posts

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#141

Post by weblivz »

They're are easy target and i had this discussion over drinks with some friend last night. I actually think their software in the last few years and what is coming through is getting great respect from hackers.

Also, a few things to remember.

1. Search in only 10% done.

2. Pervasive devices are taking over as the key interface to systems.

3. Collaboration is the big wave on the web.

4. Privacy/Trust - things like google apps work for some data (and are a great addition) but add in trust and privacy in business and they're screwed. Open ID is thinking about identity, but there's a long way to go.

For these reasons there is a long way to go before anyone can be considered alive or dead. I for one think Google will be overtaken by someone in the not too distant future as well. It may be a resurgent Microsoft - remember Netscape.

Oh, the have an ace in their cards. Ray Ozzie is Chief Software Architect (a position Gates himself used to hold) and created probably the more powerful collaboration software in its time at Groove. He's been very quiet recently and his emergence may be their resurgence.

Not everyone is going to want to create 5 minute web 2.0 software to get bought by Google - a big change will emerge as happened with Netscape and AltaVista. Stay tuned.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#142

Post by weblivz »

BobG wrote: post #32

Being nearly 50years old, what frightens me about MS is that they think they can sell an OS which they can remotely turn off without out a court warrant and then its up to you if your business hasn't gone bankrupt to sue them . This just shows complete and utter contempt for their customers.Which will do for them in the long run.My next box will be linux. Maybe the apple setup etc looks attractive to the younger gene…

They're are easy target and i had this discussion over drinks with some friend last night. I actually think their software in the last few years and what is coming through is getting great respect from hackers.

Also, a few things to remember.

1. Search in only 10% done.

2. Pervasive devices are taking over as the key interface to systems.

3. Collaboration is the big wave on the web.

4. Privacy/Trust - things like google apps work for some data (and are a great addition) but add in trust and privacy in business and they're screwed. Open ID is thinking about identity, but there's a long way to go.

For these reasons there is a long way to go before anyone can be considered alive or dead. I for one think Google will be overtaken by someone in the not too distant future as well. It may be a resurgent Microsoft - remember Netscape.

Oh, the have an ace in their cards. Ray Ozzie is Chief Software Architect (a position Gates himself used to hold) and created probably the more powerful collaboration software in its time at Groove. He's been very quiet recently and his emergence may be their resurgence.

Not everyone is going to want to create 5 minute web 2.0 software to get bought by Google - a big change will emerge as happened with Netscape and AltaVista. Stay tuned.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#143

Post by wykthorr »

Now that I read this I realize that I haven't been paying any attention to Microsoft lately and that is because they don't matter anymore.

The clearest proof of their death is their failure to launch an improved operating system. Vista was a big failure and I think they are starting to realize it. I think this particular piece of software is going to kill them for good. (that being 6ft under) Though this process could take some time it has started and it's not going to stop.

Bye Bye Microsoft. Hope not to see any lookalikes any time soon.

Victor

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#145

Post by rickygee »

eh, I still find Windows 2000 perfectly adequate for everything I do - including reading your excellent essay. That said, VISTA may well be a coffin nail. R/G

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#146

Post by redbeard »

I actually respected Paul Graham and linked to him in his article about starting a startup. Now I see he is basically not even serious enough to keep reading. What a dork.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#147

Post by talkingtab »

I agree with everything you said, but there is one crucial bit more. MS is like the Soviet economic model competing against the "free trade" model. One is adaptive and the other isn't. Here it is the collaborative, adaptive model of software development (y-combinator like) versus the large monolithic MS development culture. Which is why MS will just not come back ever. They may be able to use Ajax, or other technologies, but they will never be able to change their culture. Doing so would require them to repudiate Bill Gates , et al and they are not going to do that.

We should thank them in a way, because rather than having to compete against a mob of dinosaurs, MS has killed the others off for us - Novell for example. Thanks Bill.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#149

Post by Elfan »

JMiao wrote: post #83
zach wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Xbox is a red herring. Microsoft's "Home and Entertainment" division still loses millions a day, six years after the Xbox unveiling, and has very little to do with technology in the first place, much less software innovation.

This isn't a fair analysis. XBOX is probably one of the only groups that is moving in a positive direction at Microsoft. Yes, they've lost billions, but Microsoft expected that going in. The billions they've spent over the last few years is a small price to pay for making Windows technology the center of the home entertainment experience as well as owning a significant content pipeline into the living room. However,…

Its a strange irony that Microsoft's best products (Xbox, Natural Keyboards) are hardware.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#150

Post by Elfan »

zach wrote: post #45
hello_moto wrote: post #10

Paul, I think you're being an ignorant a little bit in this case. Have you seen how Microsoft become the second major player in the game industry behind Sony PS brand? I think right now more people own XBOX 360 compare to Sony PS3. Of course there's Wii, the Apple of Console machine. Google is popular because people like Michael Arrington, Walleywag, and those biased non-professional bloggers-turned-online-reporters…

The Xbox is a red herring. Microsoft's "Home and Entertainment" division still loses millions a day, six years after the Xbox unveiling, and has very little to do with technology in the first place, much less software innovation.

It's not unusual for companies to sell game consoles at a large loss in hopes of increasing market share and making the money back on licensing. Pretty much everyone who isn't Nintnedo seems to do it that way.
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