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Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

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Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#61

Twitter hasn't focused on anything else besides twitter. Facebook is taking on the mission of "connecting the world". Google has gone well beyond being only a search engine. Amazon has expanded into mobile, AWS and ... Twitter, on the other hand, is still pushing the same product.

Taking a step back, what's the advantage to society of every company growing into a conglomerate? Why not just let a company live and die on its core business? Do we really want to allow all that power to be consolidated into company boards and executives?

Not necessarily, but the world is evolving which means that maintaining the same product will not be profitable forever (or in this case, never).

Companies will want to continue exist and generate more profits for their owners, which means deploying new products - and these products might appear to be different but upon closer inspection they kind of make sense. Facebook is connecting everything (core product + whatsapp + the internet balloons etc.). Googles core business appears to be analyzing large, dynamic and complex datasets (the web, maps, their biotech research, self-driving cars).

Of course there are always outliers (Android), but companies go for profit. If they can incorporate something new they will.

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. I get that they want sign-ups, but it's hard to sell the service with that page.

but would a search engine approach be any more effective at conversions? I use google and wikipedia, but it doesn't mean i have a blog or edit.

That to me is the problem, that for some reason conversions is the sole metric with which success is measured. Why is that though? I don't have to be a GMail/Google user to get value out of Google search, yet Google generates most of its revenue from search.

If Twitter knows what everyone likes, or is talking about (especially the influencers), then that would be a good source of search results if I'm looking for something to buy or do. Its an entirely different search engine than Google or even Facebook.

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#63
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their revenue exceeds 1bn per year so...yeah. They are a billion dollar company.

TWTR right now has a operating margin of -26%. So they spent ~1.3B to get that 1.0B in revenue. If I were to make a bunch of goods for $130/each, and then sell them for $100/each but managed to sell 10M of those goods should I be valued as a billion dollar company?

That's apparently jet.com's business model ;-)

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#64
post #23

Am I the only one who never really liked the whole concept of Twitter?

It's really hard to sell/explain to the uninitiated because it's a diverse platform. Even my twitter feed is very diverse- breaking news and headlines from the beat writers for my favorite teams, activists and protesters covering police brutality, and developer blogs. With this mix, my twitter feed varies greatly. Unrest in Ferguson? Breaking news from the ground. Microsoft Build conference? Latest in tech from Redmo…

No, I've tried it. I've really tried to like it, but it just didn't click with me. I know it's perfect for others, but it can never reach the growth of a platform like Facebook that is more universally liked. That's pretty much my point.

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. I get that they want sign-ups, but it's hard to sell the service with that page.

but would a search engine approach be any more effective at conversions? I use google and wikipedia, but it doesn't mean i have a blog or edit.

That prompts a question as to whether Twitter can best grow its future value more through user signups / conversions, or through maximizing one-way consumption as a broadcast medium.

I read the nytimes.com all the time. They have no idea who I am and never will. I'll never signup for an account. They still get to feed me ads.

I consume ESPN one-way. They have no idea who I am and never will. It's worth $50 +/- billion to Disney (per Forbes and others).

Why can't Twitter maximize that potential? Most of Google's global users don't have or don't use a G account, and are not signed in when they search (even if Google builds a profile on them anyway). That doesn't detract from Google's ability to monetize based on interest and intent. Twitter's intent will never be as valuable, but it wouldn't take much given we're talking about Google's intent being worth $100 billion in advertising sales in the near future.

My point being, perhaps Twitter's biggest mistake is in trying to be Facebook and worrying about users. Instead they should focus on maximizing output of high quality sources, and boosting total consumption.

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#66
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twitter is huge, it costs a lot of money to run. They had a net profit of negative $162.4 million Q1. I don't know what defines an $X0 billion business, but I would imagine that it would be profit.

Put simply, future value. Otherwise a sidewalk lemonade stand profiting 1 cent per glass would be far more valuable than a lemonade manufacturing business which sells millions of bottles a day and pumps all the profits plus additional investment money into manufacturing facilities. At some point, the money-losing lemonade manufacturer no longer needs to ramp up their facilities, they pay down the equipment cost, and…

Of course, but at some point the whole "future value" logic runs flat. The market is losing faith in TWTTR's ability to generate value.

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#67

To me the problem with Twitter lies solely with what Twitter's logged-out homepage looks like. I don't know what it's trying to be but asking me to sign up, browse categories (?), and read top celebrity posts is not it. Why is logged-out Twitter not a search engine? They have up-to-the-second thoughts from their users about everything and it's the first place I go when a site is down, or some news story is breaking.…

That's part of it. Another is a lack of good curation features, as Chris Sacca has written about (http://lowercasecapital.com/2015/06/03/what-twitter-can-be-2...)

I also thought about this when I started building Testimote. A lot of interesting things are being said (positive things about companies in my case), and are drowning out there in the great torrent coming from the firehose. I think there's room for both Twitter and outside companies to continue to build out curation ideas around this, as the data set is quite rich (and Twitter - at least recently - has been fairly generous with their basic APIs with things like rate limits [though I think lower cost plans would be fantastic for higher rate limits, rather than big money for the full hose].)

A combination of better curation and rebuilt developer relations could really help - maybe not user growth, per se, but certainly with service usage. What about web sites and mobile apps giving people a way to give feedback to the company (something as simple as a Tweet box that says "give instant public feedback") that simply tweets out the message using their account? People would start using Twitter without doing anything more than filling in a form and supplying an email address (for first-time users.) There's a lot of untapped potential around this. I think it also helps to think of Twitter as a giant, sometimes overlapping set of IRC channels and DMs, but with the ability to tap into it all. Like with IRC bots that would catch stuff, and put it in a database. Interesting conversations happening, not much being done with it. Twitter could encourage people to do more with it from the outside, and help everyone, including themselves.

It still has tons of potential if cards are played right.

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#68

To me the problem with Twitter lies solely with what Twitter's logged-out homepage looks like. I don't know what it's trying to be but asking me to sign up, browse categories (?), and read top celebrity posts is not it. Why is logged-out Twitter not a search engine? They have up-to-the-second thoughts from their users about everything and it's the first place I go when a site is down, or some news story is breaking.…

Nodding my head in agreement, only to realize I'm agreeing with an IRL friend.

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#69
post #47

Twitter should do group messaging and structured tags. I want to do things like: @friends Don't forget my birthday party on #(Aug 20, 8pm) at #SomePub or @friends Don't forget my birthday party! #invitation(Aug 20, 8pm, SomePub) And I want to be able to create a list where all invitations from people in the @friends group go And finance people could do things like Twitter has bottomed #buy(TWTR) And I want to be able…

This would be fantastically niche and tech-person-oriented, probably not the right move for the company as a whole. That said, nothing stops you from writing a bot on top of Twitter to power any of these interactions.

It would be a big niche if you consider how many people use Excel functions. It could make Twitter part of enterprise and group communications infrastructures.

Re: Twitter Falls Below IPO Price as Concerns Mount Over CEO, Growth

#70
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twitter had a Q1 revenue of $436 million. Doesn't it make it a $X0 billion business or am I missing something ? The main concern to investors is primarily the growth and their ability to warrant a premium price on the stock.

Businesses are usually valued on reasonable (e.g. 12-18x) multiples of their profit (and by that it's their actual profit not these silly non-GAAP 'profit if you ignore all this stuff we don't want you to look at' profit nonsense). Tech companies often try to pretend this isn't reality, but after you've been trading on the public markets for a while reality starts to set in hard. So for Twitter to be a legit business…

12-18 is a reasonable P/E range by historical standards, but not in the present environment. S&P 500's overall P/E is over 20 right now.
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