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July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

ncdc.noaa.gov

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Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#61

Post by Frondo »

zajd wrote: post #47
rnovak wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

I'm guessing you have some data that backs up this point? There are some pretty accurate forecasting services http://www.wunderground.com/most-accurate-weather http://forecastadvisor.com/

In fairness, he did say that the whole thing was his opinion, so I'm guessing he's just hoping we'll notice the sounds-like-facts nature of his opinions and go along with it.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#62

Post by marcstreeter »

rnovak wrote: post #41
cryptoz wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are significant temperature records that go back much farther than 1880 even. Many navies and armies kept records from all over the world, so we actually have lots more data than people think. There are also bodies of science that deal with 'aftcasting', which is making a weather forecast for a date in the past. These techniques have been refined to the point where we can make 1-day aftcasts for ~1850 that are…

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

While I see your point, the forecasts for past weather are based on data very different from forecasts for tomorrow's weather. The former is for past occurred events and the latter is for future probabilities.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#63

Post by [deleted] »

cryptoz wrote: post #42
[deleted] wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[deleted]

Yes, governments will pay a lot. The US Department of Defense considers climate change to be an urgent national security issue. [1] But also, agribusiness like Monsanto will pay - they just bought Climate Corp for $1B+ a couple years ago to improve weather and climate predictions for crop outputs. The primary customers are probably insurance companies I think. There's a lot of money to be saved by predicting and avoi…

[deleted]

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#65

Post by mturmon »

cryptoz wrote: post #36

Climate change is the biggest problem of our time. I wish there were more startups focused on solving it - there are so many opportunities to make money here while improving the world at a global scale. Mitigating the effects of climate change for businesses could easily be worth $1T+. More VCs should pay attention to these opportunities, and more startup founders should enter this space.

Here is a proof of your concept. The Climate Corporation (https://www.climate.com) is a SF based company founded in 2006 by two ex-Googlers. Its purpose is to help agriculture adapt to climate change. It was acquired by Monsanto in 2013 for $1.1B.

[ETA: I had a feeling you knew this, and indeed while I was writing, you captured this info below as well. Hope your project is going well.]

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#66

Post by rnovak »

BillTheCat wrote: post #46
rnovak wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

By "horribly inaccurate" do you mean 3 degrees Celsius off or 20 degrees Celsius off? These aftcasts are accurate enough for us to plot the overall course of global climate change.

I mean turning on the "weather channel" and having it say it's sunny out, only to look outside to see pouring rain across the entire city. That's pretty inaccurate in my book.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#67

Post by cryptoz »

[deleted] wrote: post #63
cryptoz wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, governments will pay a lot. The US Department of Defense considers climate change to be an urgent national security issue. [1] But also, agribusiness like Monsanto will pay - they just bought Climate Corp for $1B+ a couple years ago to improve weather and climate predictions for crop outputs. The primary customers are probably insurance companies I think. There's a lot of money to be saved by predicting and avoi…

[deleted]

> So let me get this straight ... selling climate control stuff to the government

No, you got it wrong. Please read my comment again and recognize that I think most profits would come from a variety of different private sectors, specifically agribusiness and insurance.

> nobody has thought of

On the contrary, there are many startups in this space. I even mentioned some by name. I am making a call for more to enter the space and join the efforts to reduce the effects of climate change, help large enterprises and governments adapt, and make lots of money while doing so.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#68

Post by SimpleXYZ »

[deleted] wrote: post #40
cryptoz wrote: post #36

Climate change is the biggest problem of our time. I wish there were more startups focused on solving it - there are so many opportunities to make money here while improving the world at a global scale. Mitigating the effects of climate change for businesses could easily be worth $1T+. More VCs should pay attention to these opportunities, and more startup founders should enter this space.

[deleted]

It doesn't necessarily have to be a "block out the sun" type of project.

There are other opportunities, like energy. Surely someone can take a bite out of a 100+ trillion dollar industry in a profitable and green way.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#69

Post by inversionOf »

fluidcruft wrote: post #24
[deleted] wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[deleted]

It's pretty easy to understand why it's being downvoted. It doesn't contribute to the conversation--it's a pedantic tangent that isn't any more interesting than noting that (1) the surface of the Earth used to be molten and (2) all matter in the known Universe was a lot hotter during the big bang. Is that relevant?

The surface of the Earth was molten some 4.5 billion years ago. The big bang was about 14 billion years ago. The start of the relative record is a mere 135 years ago. It is absurd to conflate the two, and it's a critical foundation for the statement.

By simple random odds (which given that weather stations are few and far between, simple odds of micro-climates can shift temperature slightly), even with zero influence of global warming or any other effect, it's entirely possible to break records set over such a short period. I'm far too lazy to calculate random odds right now, but setting a new high at a 17 year interval doesn't seem remarkable. It is in the context of global warming, but in isolation it really doesn't mean much.

This isn't an anti AGW comment, and it's unfortunate that it's impossible to even state something so fundamental without it becoming religious, but the truth is that we've been recording our planet for a very short period of time, with growing accuracy and coverage every year.

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