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Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

scienceblogs.com

31–40 of 72 posts

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#31

I was going to comment that this borders on ad hominem: > FoxNews.com tells us that we finally have a 'smoking gun'--proof that scientists are manufacturing a global warming crisis so that they can… they can… You know, calling out political theater instead of acknowledging that reasonable people are concerned when they see scientific misconduct. I was going to explain that this sort of Fox News reference is not so go…

"Why might the science be wrong? Because it's moved from science to an identity issue. Us vs. them. This guy isn't helping."

This is exactly why I choose to avoid the whole global warming climate debate thing. It is so hard to find any sort of unbiased information because everyone who talks about it has an agenda and forces it in your face. An Inconvenient Truth was actually gag worthy, an hour and fifteen minutes of Al Gore masturbating his ego over his crusade, five minutes of ridiculous cartoons, and maybe fifteen minutes of actual statistics. Obviously a station like Fox News or a talking head like Sean Hannity is going to push a right wing viewpoint to the death, so there is really no point bringing them up in any serious debate about basically anything. Even this posting, I just have a hard time taking this particular blog seriously given the "Evolution, development, and random biological ejaculations from a godless liberal", as the description, whether it is intended to be humorous or not.

The whole global warming debate is not as clear cut (if you can call it that) as something like stem cell research where the issue was basically science vs morality/religion. Both sides have their own statistics, both sides try their hardest to refute the other sides' science, and even the people who actually agree with each other that there is global warming often have different opinions on what can actually be done (if anything) to fix the problem. When something like the climate-gate situation becomes public, it makes it even harder to actually take any of the science seriously, because one can only assume that the studies, experiments, and modeling is being done with the intention of proving one side right or wrong, which will undoubtedly lead to all sorts of unintended cognitive bias.

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#32
post #6

This is how science is supposed to work. Sure there are a few straw men/ad hominem attacks peppered in the article but the proper response to criticism isn't calling the other side "denialists" and feigning offense but to respond with data and counter arguments. The problem that many of these scientists have themselves compounded is the shroud of secrecy they've put over their "normalized" and "value added" data and…

It still doesn't give a scientific reason why it is okay to truncate the tree ring temperature graph at 1960 and paste the real thermometer temperature graphs on top of them, except for the fact that it makes one hell of a picture. That's the "hiding the decline" that most people are concerned about. This article completely dances around that.

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which "other measurements of the climate" are you referring to exactly? CO2 level is not a measurement of climate, of course. It seems to be correlated, but it's unknown if its phase is leading or lagging. So, what measurements are you referring to?

> CO2 level is not a measurement of climate, of course. LOL. Well, that's it. I'm done. Have a nice weekend, folks.

If you honestly think that CO2 is the one and only cause of climate, ignoring solar cycles, and other effects, and furthermore, if you believe with certainty, that the CO2 cycle is phase shifted ahead in time, compared to temperature, when it's just as likely that it's lagging, than you're right, we really have no point in talking.

Also based on your response, I think we now know what "other climate measurements" you were referring to.

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#34
It's interesting and important to read the comments below that article. What this shows is that seeing a smoking gun in the "nature trick" email alone is misplaced, but also that the interpretation of what's going on with those tree rings is not nearly as clear or uncontroversial as the global warming alarmists want us to believe.

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#36

I have spent some hundreds of hours listening to arguments for global warming, er Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change or AGW or ACC (or whatever the PC acronym is this week) The problem that I keep getting back to is best phrased like this: archaeological climate record extrapolation is nowhere near as sure-fire as supporters make it out to be. I have many more problems, but this one addresses the current artic…

>The problem is....archaelogical climage record extrapolation is nowhere as sure fire....

Then pray provide us with some science supporting your point.

If you cannot, when you just keep bleating you are "troubled" over and over, you really look like someone just pushing an agenda without any support whatsoever.

And oh, what's needed now is a "slam-dunk" on the issue. A "slam-dunk", of course, was never needed when any of the corporate interests (who are the ones really astroturfing and dissembling on this issue) set out to basically rape ecosystems for their stockholders. Do you also call for "slam-dunks" from these corporate interests, or just when it's convenient for your political ideology?

This whole discussion is reminiscent of the tobacco industries continual two-faced insistence on "slam-dunks" when it came to any encroachment on their ability to reap profit from suffering.

>I have no more emotion invested in whether the planet is cooling or warming than I do variations of the gravitational constant around the time of the big bang. Whichever way the facts lead will not change my underlying concern. So I really don't have a dog in this fight as far as the science goes, at least not to the degree that some others do.

Right. And in your disinterestedness you personally posted three anti-warming editorials to Hacker News over the last three weeks. Not three science articles - three editorials espousing a single view.

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#37

If anything, I would expect the relatively recent divergence of correlation between tree-ring measurements and other climate measurements to bolster claims of an unstable climate, rather than suggest cooling. Here we have a situation where plant behavior closely follows other measurements of the climate for a very long time, and then recently ... they don't. The most likely explanation here -- still being studied, mi…

By your logic, any noise in measurement is evidence of instability in the system being measured.

Sorry, but that's nonsense. A simple thought experiment: use a blind man to visually measure the location of a rock. Does the fact that his answers are noisy provide evidence the rock is moving around in an unstable manner?

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#38

I have spent some hundreds of hours listening to arguments for global warming, er Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change or AGW or ACC (or whatever the PC acronym is this week) The problem that I keep getting back to is best phrased like this: archaeological climate record extrapolation is nowhere near as sure-fire as supporters make it out to be. I have many more problems, but this one addresses the current artic…

This bothers me too. I don't know how tree-ring data is interpreted, but it's safe to assume that it's not a simple size of rings -> temperature mapping. How are the myriad of factors that contribute to tree growth accounted for?

How are the myriad of factors that contribute to tree growth accounted for?

The short answer is that they are not, because they are not known.

That's the point. If they were known there wouldn't be nearly so much controversy. Climate history modelling using tree-ring data as a proxy is incredibly immature. It may have value but the degree to which it has been relied upon is all out of proportion to the validity of the current state of the science (which is probably true for much of climate science at the moment as well).

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#39
Watching Hacker News argue about climate change is like watching the blind argue about colors. Please stop. In general you have no idea what you are talking about.

Again and again and again and again there are comments along the lines of, "I did five minutes of Googling about this issue and I've come up with a fatal flaw in climate science!" Do you really think that the tens of thousands of scientists who do their life's work in this area are all fucking idiots? Every last one of them? You are late to the party. How greenhouse gases work has been thoroughly explored. The science of whether we'll get a substantial human-caused climate change from increasing the amount of atmospheric CO2 by 35% is done. It's over. The science now is in determining/predicting just how much it will be, and in predicting the effects.

Every thread about climate science on Hacker News is one giant facepalm. Every thread. Please stop.

Re: Why climatologists used the tree-ring data ‘trick’

#40

Watching Hacker News argue about climate change is like watching the blind argue about colors. Please stop. In general you have no idea what you are talking about. Again and again and again and again there are comments along the lines of, "I did five minutes of Googling about this issue and I've come up with a fatal flaw in climate science!" Do you really think that the tens of thousands of scientists who do their li…

Your comment has even less evidence or analysis than the comments you're complaining about. It's just an angry assertion.

It's ok for people to who are not experts in a subject to explore it. If you feel they're on the wrong track, help them by giving them information.

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