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How Cheap Can Solar Get?

rameznaam.com

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Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#31

Post by mtgx »

leni536 wrote: post #23
fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

> I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose later for the environmental equivalent of a triple bypass surgery. That's really generous, however I think it would be the government's duty to compensate for these externalities so you don't have to pay more for solar (or not much more) than for the grid. Otherwise the environment will just stay a huge "tragedy of the commons".

The very least the governments can do is eliminate all subsidies to coal, oil and natural gas. They've had them for decades. I don't think it's healthy for a society to prop up an industry that long with subsidies, especially when it's one of the most profitable.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#32

Post by [deleted] »

leni536 wrote: post #23
fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

> I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose later for the environmental equivalent of a triple bypass surgery. That's really generous, however I think it would be the government's duty to compensate for these externalities so you don't have to pay more for solar (or not much more) than for the grid. Otherwise the environment will just stay a huge "tragedy of the commons".

[deleted]

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#33

Post by [deleted] »

leni536 wrote: post #23
fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

> I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose later for the environmental equivalent of a triple bypass surgery. That's really generous, however I think it would be the government's duty to compensate for these externalities so you don't have to pay more for solar (or not much more) than for the grid. Otherwise the environment will just stay a huge "tragedy of the commons".

[deleted]

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#34

Post by mtgx »

jl6 wrote: post #4

Does this make solar a great industry to invest in because of the growth potential, or a terrible industry to invest in because the prices are racing to the bottom?

There are going to be some huge companies thanks to solar. Those companies are also going to have big valuations, at least until the market is much more mature and saturated, but we're decades away from that.

As Ramez said, you don't bet on an "emerging industry", you bet on the winners in that emerging industry, otherwise you may very well lose your money. When new industries are born there are usually hundreds of competitors in the beginning, but eventually only a few big ones remain, and it's usually those that started early and got big early.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#35

Post by pjc50 »

Jedd wrote: post #29
RamezNaam wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to say. Solar thermal is not dropping in cost the way that solar PV is. For now, at low penetrations, solar PV is a far better bet. But solar thermal has the advantage of integrated storage. When solar overall is at some reasonably high penetration (say, 10-15%) storage will become important. At that point, it depends on the cost curve of storage technologies. If batteries or other energy storage techn…

Great, thank you Ramez. I know they're different technologies, but I wonder on the cross-over effects of the two. If people see a solar thermal plant going up near their town, will it encourage or discourage them from installing PVCs? Are nation states that encourage / subsidise large-scale solar thermal deployments more likely to encourage end-user scale (PVC-based) systems? Entirely agree managing storage is increa…

If people see a solar thermal plant going up near their town, will it encourage or discourage them from installing PV?

I don't think this will make much difference - individual PV installation is an investment decision (just like other big home improvements) based on cost of energy and subsidies. It makes some difference to how "green" people feel, but the cost matters more. It may have an effect in planning battles. Here in the UK (esp Scotland) it's all about the wind farms. European solar thermal is currently struggling against low natural gas prices: http://www.estif.org/statistics/st_markets_in_europe_2014/

Pumped storage requires naturally occuring suitable locations (not too many available) and incurs environmental damage of damming a river.

(Calling it "PVC" is really confusing me with the flexible polymer)

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#36

Post by netcan »

RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

What's the interaction between the home solar market and the grid solar market. Is the cost p/kw following the same curve?

Even if these two use the same basic technology, I think they are essentially two completely separate "markets."

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#37

Post by jacquesm »

justaaron wrote: post #25

i live off grid inside of a 500w/h peak footprint. i paid around $1000 for proper German (Schutten) panels, a charge controller suitable for them, 2 110ah "solar batteries" (lead acid usual cheapo old school stuff), and a Xantrex inverter. After nearly 1 year running a fridge, lights, computer, router, & studio monitors, I'm ready to add more battery capacity before the winter (cloudy days) and a small wind turbine.…

If you're up for it I still have my 2500 W windmill here and can't use it so you can have it, the base is damaged (slip rings, tower shaft and tower mount) and you'll need to put up a pretty solid tower. It's a 2.5 meter diameter machine.

See:

http://jacquesmattheij.com/how-to-build-a-windmill

It weighs about 100 Kg and it's currently in storage near the town of Beverwijk in NL. It cost a small fortune to make it and I'd rather see it being used than slowly rust away in storage.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#38

Post by symfrog »

netcan wrote: post #36
RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

What's the interaction between the home solar market and the grid solar market. Is the cost p/kw following the same curve? Even if these two use the same basic technology, I think they are essentially two completely separate "markets."

The actual solar panels used are almost identical. Generally in the residential solar market you may use a slightly more expensive panel for aesthetic reasons, but the improvement in the underlying solar panel technology in terms of efficiency and cost are available in equal terms to both markets.

The inverters used in the residential market versus the solar plant market are usually quiet different and, IMHO, form two distinct markets. Reductions in the inverter cost for solar plant deployments would result in a reduction in the home market, but the relationship is not as direct as the relationship between the panels since you would rarely be able to use the same inverter in both markets.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#39

Post by Gravityloss »

mtgx wrote: post #31
leni536 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose later for the environmental equivalent of a triple bypass surgery. That's really generous, however I think it would be the government's duty to compensate for these externalities so you don't have to pay more for solar (or not much more) than for the grid. Otherwise the environment will just stay a huge "tragedy of the commons".

The very least the governments can do is eliminate all subsidies to coal, oil and natural gas. They've had them for decades. I don't think it's healthy for a society to prop up an industry that long with subsidies, especially when it's one of the most profitable.

Australia had a carbon tax. Unfortunately it has been reverted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_pricing_in_Australia

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#40

Post by crdoconnor »

nroets wrote: post #17
RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

IIRC all the efficient solar cells we currently have contains some rare materials. Once a particular solar technology reaches grid parity, the demand for the relevant rare material will increase, placing a floor under the price of that solar cell. In the case of Moore's Law, a transistor can be any size. By contrast, solar cells absorbs too little energy if they are too thin. TL;DR: There are real physical limitation…

>IIRC all the efficient solar cells we currently have contains some rare materials.

Yeah, but the super-efficient solar cells are not the cheap ones that everybody is putting on their roof. They're the ones going on the international space station.

>Once a particular solar technology reaches grid parity

It already did in about half of the continental US, about two years ago.

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