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How Cheap Can Solar Get?

rameznaam.com

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Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#21

Post by RamezNaam »

minthd wrote: post #14
RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

When we look at figure-1(levelized PPA), we see steady price reductions until mid-2013 , and than none. That is probably due to soft costs starting to dominate. So since the cost drivers changing - why does it make sense to model future price on old cost drivers ?

The graph doesn't have an 2015 data on it, but the average in 2015 has dropped further.

I initially set out to model soft costs on their own, separate from module costs. However, that effort revealed other factors. Solar capacity factor is rising and operational costs (which are not included in soft costs are dropping. There are more variables at play. For some of those variables, there isn't robust data available over lon times.

All of those variables ultimately feed into electricity prices, in the end, which is why I chose that modeling approach.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#22

Post by [deleted] »

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

[deleted]

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#23

Post by leni536 »

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

> I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose later for the environmental equivalent of a triple bypass surgery.

That's really generous, however I think it would be the government's duty to compensate for these externalities so you don't have to pay more for solar (or not much more) than for the grid. Otherwise the environment will just stay a huge "tragedy of the commons".

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#24

Post by pjc50 »

jl6 wrote: post #4

Does this make solar a great industry to invest in because of the growth potential, or a terrible industry to invest in because the prices are racing to the bottom?

It's a commodity manufacturing industry. It's going to have big turnover and thin margins. There's scope for innovation-driven cost reduction, but not for SV-style "unicorns".

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#25

Post by justaaron »

i live off grid inside of a 500w/h peak footprint. i paid around $1000 for proper German (Schutten) panels, a charge controller suitable for them, 2 110ah "solar batteries" (lead acid usual cheapo old school stuff), and a Xantrex inverter. After nearly 1 year running a fridge, lights, computer, router, & studio monitors, I'm ready to add more battery capacity before the winter (cloudy days) and a small wind turbine.

grid-tie systems are another story and a bigger investment. (need a proper electrician to wire it etc...)

feeding ignorant "city ways" in terms of people's silly habits fed by years of cluelessness (no a hairdryer will never ever be possible, as that's 2kw right there...) that's where the biggest expenses come in... if you don't try to keep up with the usual clueless electrical consumption, a well organized person can begin cutting their footprint down...

for example my alleged 85w macbook pro power supply consumes less than 20w typically... my inverter says so...

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#26

Post by pjc50 »

leni536 wrote: post #18
chm wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry for the non-answer: The term "solar cell" refers to a wide variety of technologies[1]. Anything from common semiconductors, rare-earths or even fruit juice can be used to make solar cells. The impact will be highly dependent on the type of cell in question. [1]: http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpg The above graph isn't all-encompassing.

Fair enough. I think the most satisfying answer would be the released chemicals and other environmental effects normalized to kWh for various cell types, taking the designed lifetime and recycling into account maybe with some emphasis on cell types that are currently sold for households, or planned to be sold in the not too far future. I'm interested in these questions: - What cell types are currently bought, will be…

The first of these links gives an overview of the risks, pointing out that it depends very much on the particular factory's safety record. I don't think normalising is even possible across so many different possibilities. All the risky chemicals can be recycled and non-CO2 emissions neutralised, but this is not always done. It also says the majority type sold is polycrystalline, so CdTe are rare. (Both cadmium and tellurium are quite nasty, but also bound in by the manufacturing process and not prone to leaking)

http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/solar/solar-energy-isnt-...

The second addresses the carbon cost specifically.

http://info.cat.org.uk/questions/pv/what-energy-and-carbon-p...

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#27

Post by andyjohnson0 »

leni536 wrote: post #10

What is the environmental impact of making solar cells?

There is some information at [1], and refers to reports at [2] and [3]. The latter tries to numerically quantify the environmental impact.

[1] http://info.cat.org.uk/questions/pv/what-environmental-impac...

[2] http://www.ethicalconsumer.org/ethicalconsumer_researchrepor...

[3] http://www.solarscorecard.com/2014/2014-SVTC-Solar-Scorecard...

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#28

Post by Gravityloss »

1971genocide wrote: post #2

Does anyone know methods for hackers to help and learn more about solar ? It it possible for the mathematically trained to easily immerse and innovate in the industry ? It it possible to manufacture solar cells "in your garage" so to speak ?

Production-demand balancing / forecasting will be a huge business.

It can include a lot of software.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#29

Post by Jedd »

RamezNaam wrote: post #20
Jedd wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your post focuses on PVC's - what's the impact of / where does thermal solar fit in with these projections?

It's difficult to say. Solar thermal is not dropping in cost the way that solar PV is. For now, at low penetrations, solar PV is a far better bet. But solar thermal has the advantage of integrated storage. When solar overall is at some reasonably high penetration (say, 10-15%) storage will become important. At that point, it depends on the cost curve of storage technologies. If batteries or other energy storage techn…

Great, thank you Ramez.

I know they're different technologies, but I wonder on the cross-over effects of the two. If people see a solar thermal plant going up near their town, will it encourage or discourage them from installing PVCs? Are nation states that encourage / subsidise large-scale solar thermal deployments more likely to encourage end-user scale (PVC-based) systems?

Entirely agree managing storage is increasingly the pain point - in both scales of systems (thermal just rides out cloudy / dark periods more smoothly, I believe).

Is it still true that the most $-effective large-scale power-storage mechanism is to pump water up a hill?

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#30

Post by aembleton »

justaaron wrote: post #25

i live off grid inside of a 500w/h peak footprint. i paid around $1000 for proper German (Schutten) panels, a charge controller suitable for them, 2 110ah "solar batteries" (lead acid usual cheapo old school stuff), and a Xantrex inverter. After nearly 1 year running a fridge, lights, computer, router, & studio monitors, I'm ready to add more battery capacity before the winter (cloudy days) and a small wind turbine.…

That 85W rating on your Macbook Pro power supply is it's peak power output. Typically it will be much less.
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