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How Cheap Can Solar Get?

rameznaam.com

11–20 of 138 posts

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#11
post #10

What is the environmental impact of making solar cells?

Sorry for the non-answer:

The term "solar cell" refers to a wide variety of technologies[1]. Anything from common semiconductors, rare-earths or even fruit juice can be used to make solar cells. The impact will be highly dependent on the type of cell in question.

[1]:http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpg

The above graph isn't all-encompassing.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#12

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

So given the Fed 30% solar subsidy is set to expire at the end of 2016, have you modeled (or know of a model) that shows when the price of solar will crossover the loss of subsidy? I.e. I'm trying to figure out if going solar now is better (in California) or just waiting a few more years. I'm in no particular hurry since my electric bill vs. sq/ft is already pretty good.

[deleted]

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#13

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

Your post focuses on PVC's - what's the impact of / where does thermal solar fit in with these projections?

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#14

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

When we look at figure-1(levelized PPA), we see steady price reductions until mid-2013 , and than none. That is probably due to soft costs starting to dominate.

So since the cost drivers changing - why does it make sense to model future price on old cost drivers ?

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#15

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

So given the Fed 30% solar subsidy is set to expire at the end of 2016, have you modeled (or know of a model) that shows when the price of solar will crossover the loss of subsidy? I.e. I'm trying to figure out if going solar now is better (in California) or just waiting a few more years. I'm in no particular hurry since my electric bill vs. sq/ft is already pretty good.

It appears that all his calculations in the article are done without subsidies factored in.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#16
I'm not happy with the diagrams. Example: the first one compares time to costs. That's really what we want. But why not add some lines for traditional ways to make electricity? That's what we want to compare to, or don't we?

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#17

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

IIRC all the efficient solar cells we currently have contains some rare materials. Once a particular solar technology reaches grid parity, the demand for the relevant rare material will increase, placing a floor under the price of that solar cell.

In the case of Moore's Law, a transistor can be any size. By contrast, solar cells absorbs too little energy if they are too thin.

TL;DR: There are real physical limitations to solar cells.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#18
post #11
post #10

What is the environmental impact of making solar cells?

Sorry for the non-answer: The term "solar cell" refers to a wide variety of technologies[1]. Anything from common semiconductors, rare-earths or even fruit juice can be used to make solar cells. The impact will be highly dependent on the type of cell in question. [1]: http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpg The above graph isn't all-encompassing.

Fair enough. I think the most satisfying answer would be the released chemicals and other environmental effects normalized to kWh for various cell types, taking the designed lifetime and recycling into account maybe with some emphasis on cell types that are currently sold for households, or planned to be sold in the not too far future.

I'm interested in these questions:

- What cell types are currently bought, will be bought in large quantities?

- How it affects / will affect the environment?

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#19
post #17

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

IIRC all the efficient solar cells we currently have contains some rare materials. Once a particular solar technology reaches grid parity, the demand for the relevant rare material will increase, placing a floor under the price of that solar cell. In the case of Moore's Law, a transistor can be any size. By contrast, solar cells absorbs too little energy if they are too thin. TL;DR: There are real physical limitation…

Two things have happened in this area recently.

1. The grams of rare earths required per watt of solar have been dropping steadily. And Solar PV panels with no rare earths at all have been developed, though they are not yet common.

2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#20
post #13

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

Your post focuses on PVC's - what's the impact of / where does thermal solar fit in with these projections?

It's difficult to say. Solar thermal is not dropping in cost the way that solar PV is. For now, at low penetrations, solar PV is a far better bet.

But solar thermal has the advantage of integrated storage. When solar overall is at some reasonably high penetration (say, 10-15%) storage will become important. At that point, it depends on the cost curve of storage technologies.

If batteries or other energy storage technologies have gotten cheap enough, PV + storage will be cheaper than solar thermal. If batteries haven't dropped in price enough, solar thermal may see a resurgence.

My bet is on PV + storage, though there is no certainty here.

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