How to Manufacture a Climate Consensus

Here's what it seems like:

1. The Earth is warming at a slow rate, but at least some of this is natural as temperatures were historically considerably higher, then considerably lower than now.

2. We're still well within the bounds of normal, habitable historical temperatures.

3. Warming definitely occurs at local levels with deforesting, mining, and urbanization. This can decrease condensation and make areas less habitable to life. This can be stabilized to a large extent by planting trees, restoring soil quality, and so on.

4. Carbon dioxide currently makes up 0.3% of the greenhouse gases including water vapor, and about 5% of the non-water vapor greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide increases are lagging temperature increases - suggesting that CO2 is not the biggest culprit of global warming.

5. That said, fossil fuels will gradually be replaced - the two current biggest hurdles are battery quality and political/public fears about nuclear power. Nuclear has gotten incredibly more stable and safe, and the advent of thorium reactors is exciting. Innovations in batteries and transitions to next generation nuclear will reduce fossil fuels a lot.

6. Much of green technology isn't so green - in many areas, turbines and solar panels take enough energy to create that they won't "pay back" their energy cost within 50 years, at which point we'll likely be able to produce energy much cheaper anyways. Some areas are very well suited for green energy - deserts with solar, very windy areas with turbines, hydroelectric on rivers, but they're brute forcing some very Earth-unfriendly alternative energy into areas it's not well suited for. Much of what's called green is marketing.

Personal judgment call based on everything I've seen? Money into R&D for hydrogen power, better batteries, fusion, and safer next-gen nuclear probably goes a lot further towards cleaning up the Earth than the current proposed solutions. Fossil fuels seem like they're going to largely be obsolete within 100-150 years or sooner, and rumors of the Earth's imminent demise appear to be greatly exaggerated.

If global warming advocates are right what do they get? Gold star, notoriety for being great scientists, pat on the back and a gold watch? Even billions of dollars in research grants? Once they're right research money dries up, and you still have to fix the energy crisis that would ensue. And, big oil is handing out money left and right for any study saying the opposite. If funding were your only incentive you could just as easily get money from the other side. If you can prove global warming is or IS NOT caused by human activity you'll be very very famous, maybe rich.

Still that's paltry in comparison to the revenue of the oil, coal, and to some degree gas industries. I can't seem to make the the pay offs for being right equal out.

I like to not be so paranoid, but quite frankly this whole debate just seems like a smoke screen from both sides at the moment. Which could be yet another tactic since status quo benefits the CO2 producers.

"2. We're still well within the bounds of normal, habitable historical temperatures."

This is a severe oversimplification, IMHO. Human society is sensitive not just to whether the Earth is overall habitable, but to impacts to the significant "sunk costs" we have in the locations of population centers. It's not much comfort to the people of California if the Earth remains habitable on average when the Sierra snowmelt disappears and the state faces a drought of unprecedented proportions.

"4. Carbon dioxide currently makes up 0.3% of the greenhouse gases including water vapor, and about 5% of the non-water vapor greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide increases are lagging temperature increases - suggesting that CO2 is not the biggest culprit of global warming."

Where do you get that CO2 is 0.3% of greenhouse gases? It's true that water vapor is the largest contributor to the greenhouse effect, but CO2 is next. It accounts for 50% of the non-water greenhouse gases and for way more than 0.3% of the total greenhouse effect. Besides, counting water is a little spurious because the water content of the atmosphere is set by the temperature. Thus, if temperature goes up, water content goes up. So saying that CO2 doesn't matter because water vapor is much more important is wrong, it's precisely the opposite. CO2 matters more because its effect is amplified by water. (Barring controversies about cloud covers.)

CO2 is also the greenhouse gas that has the longest lifetime in the atmosphere. The others (methane, etc) break down a lot quicker.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nom...

And also two orders of magnitude less expensive than proposed global warming solutions:

http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-09/defense-lhc http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05...