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How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

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Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#21
post #15
post #9

And Iraq has chemical weapons, and Iran is a dangerous nuclear power, blah blah blah... Isn't $500 billion a year (50% of the federal budget!) enough for you people?

More like 27% of the 2008 federal budget. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget

That number doesn't include wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#22
post #9

And Iraq has chemical weapons, and Iran is a dangerous nuclear power, blah blah blah... Isn't $500 billion a year (50% of the federal budget!) enough for you people?

The federal budget is significantly more than 1 Trillion USD

Yeah, the numbers change year to year, and the most recent numbers are even greater. From [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_United_States_federal_budg...], I tally ~ $743 billion in defense and veterans affairs. Add a large percentage of the $220 billion in interest payments. The important question percentage-wise is whether you include Social Security.

Anyway, the fraction of the budget is really besides the point. We spend an inordinate amount of money on the military, and there is no viable threats to defend against. China is the best pick because they spend the second most money ($85 billion), but can we legitimately think that we'll go to physical war with such a huge trade partner?

Our military is funded by campfire stories and yellow press.

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#23
post #13

Out of every $100 spent on national defense worldwide , $40–$50 are spent by the United States. About 30% of the US Federal budget is military spending, and about 13% is paying interest on money we borrowed for previous military spending.¹ Any hypothetical war that the US couldn’t win unless it spends even more coin on military hardware is not a hypothetical war that the US should be hypothetically fighting in the fi…

What the US gets for that money tho' is a vast amount of tech that eventually ends up with the general public. I have two GPSs on me at the moment. Which is ridiculous but hey, they're so cheap, why not stick one in every electronic device?! There's a reason that all that comes out of the US.

The EU as a whole spends about half what the US does on defence and ends up with about 10% of the capability. Hmm.

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#24
post #13

Out of every $100 spent on national defense worldwide , $40–$50 are spent by the United States. About 30% of the US Federal budget is military spending, and about 13% is paying interest on money we borrowed for previous military spending.¹ Any hypothetical war that the US couldn’t win unless it spends even more coin on military hardware is not a hypothetical war that the US should be hypothetically fighting in the fi…

Keep in mind that US defense contrctors are probably the most expensive in the world. How much does a Lockheed Martin engineer makes versus a Chinese contractor engineer?

The US spending 40-50% of the world's defense budget doesn't say much other than the fact that a lot of people are getting very rich in America. Don't get me wrong, they are still far ahead from everyone else, but I don't think that's a valid metric unless you adjust for purchasing power.

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#25
Surface navies are useless against competent organized opponents. Carrier groups are for power projection to scare the natives, little else. During a $250 million war game in 2002, OPFOR sunk the US fleet in the Persian Gulf. Sorry I can't find the original: http://bassreport.com/forum/rec.boats.t664050.htm

And another from the War Nerd: http://exiledonline.com/the-war-nerd-this-is-how-the-carrier...

He repeats this quote from the US Naval Institute about 10 times in that last article: "Ships currently have no defense against a ballistic missile attack," and points out that ballistic missiles are 50 year old tech.

The solution to defending a surface navy isn't to throw money at it, but to mothball it.

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#26
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China torpedoes a US aircraft carrier for no particularly good reason No. The scenario is that China hits a US carrier with a (conventionally armed) ballistic missile, for no particularly good reason

I stand corrected. Don't aircraft carriers have pretty good missile defence systems, though?

No. They have effectively none.

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#27
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China torpedoes a US aircraft carrier for no particularly good reason No. The scenario is that China hits a US carrier with a (conventionally armed) ballistic missile, for no particularly good reason

I stand corrected. Don't aircraft carriers have pretty good missile defence systems, though?

It's the bullet-hitting-bullet problem. Some labs are working on focusing light on targets to melt key components. Others do a 'metal sheet' in pellet form with the thought that if you put enough metal in the air, you're bound to hit targets...

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#28
post #26
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stand corrected. Don't aircraft carriers have pretty good missile defence systems, though?

No. They have effectively none.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ship/cvn-68.h...

The NIMITZ-class self-defense measures include: missiles, guns, and electronic warfare. The NATO Sea Sparrow Missile System is comprised of two launchers with eight missiles each. Sea Sparrow is a radar-guided, short-to-medium range missile capable of engaging aircraft and cruise missiles. NIMITZ-class also has Close-In Weapon System mounts for short range defense against aircraft or missiles. Each mount has its own search and track radar, and a six-barrel, 20-millimeter Gatling gun capable of firing 3,000 rounds per minute

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#29
The references are pretty interesting for this article. I highly recommend the "Pentagon's Wasting Assets" article by Andrew Bachevich, which talks about this in a section of it from a less inflammatory perspective (mostly focusing on the Hormouz and Taiwanese Straits, as well as the 2002 war game mentioned below)

It's a known thought that since the late 80s, the Chinese Navy has been led by strategists who follow Mahanian decisive battle theory. It'll be interesting to see how carrier air groups are integrated into a theory that was adopted in the turn of the 20th century for a 'big gun'/dreadnought/battleship navy that was made obsolete by the emergence of naval air power.

Billy Mitchell just keeps winning...

Re: How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

#30
post #25

Surface navies are useless against competent organized opponents. Carrier groups are for power projection to scare the natives, little else. During a $250 million war game in 2002, OPFOR sunk the US fleet in the Persian Gulf. Sorry I can't find the original: http://bassreport.com/forum/rec.boats.t664050.htm And another from the War Nerd: http://exiledonline.com/the-war-nerd-this-is-how-the-carrier... He repeats this…

That is a rather glaring flaw in the OP’s argument, innit? “The Chinese could bring down one of our massive ships with one cheap missile! Therefore we need... an even larger quantity of massive ships than we have now!”
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