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California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

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Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have evidence for this? I seem to recall that low-mpg light trucks and SUVs were wildly popular in the US until the price of gasoline went to $4.

http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub... Since 1980 we've gotten about 50% better mileage over all. Considering the number of cars is greater today the real effect of gas saved is even more.

I was hoping for evidence of causation, not correlation :-/

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#152

I don't get it. Mandating that auto manufacturers sell a certain percentage of electric vehicles seems a bit like legislating the weather. If CA really wants to push people into electric vehicles, why not manipulate the demand for electric vehicles? Perhaps add another dollar or two to the gasoline tax?

Don't you understand? When government mandates something, things happen. We've won Bush's war on terrorism, we've won Reagan's war on drugs, and we've won Nixon's war on cancer. Victory is at hand in Obama's war on gasoline powered cars, and you're going to feel pretty foolish when you miss the celebration.

If the war on drugs was to sell a certain amount of legal pills, or the war on terrorism was to kill a certain amount of terrorists, or the war on cancer was to cure a certain number of cancers, those would all be 'won'.

Your analogy is terrible, and with enough money and willpower the government could easily get rid of gasoline cars.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#153

I don't get it. Mandating that auto manufacturers sell a certain percentage of electric vehicles seems a bit like legislating the weather. If CA really wants to push people into electric vehicles, why not manipulate the demand for electric vehicles? Perhaps add another dollar or two to the gasoline tax?

>Perhaps add another dollar or two to the gasoline tax? If only, the gas tax is waaaaaaaaaay too low.

Increasing the price of gas would incentivize more efficient vehicles for sure, but it is also incredibly regressive, impacting lower-income individuals disproportionately.

The rich keep driving their Escalades since it makes little difference to them what the gas costs, but the poor can't afford to get to work... To the extent possible, it's best to try to avoid externalities like this, making a gas tax less appealing than it would otherwise be, free market or no.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#154

The California Air Resources Board and the EPA have achieved quite a lot. Los Angeles air was barely breathable in the 1970s. Now, there's very little smog. Look at 1960s pictures of Los Angeles, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New York. That was once considered impossible. Now, it's mostly done. The only thing keeping electric cars from taking over is battery cost. Performance and range have already been fixed. Once battery…

And the fact that millions of people live in flats, condos, terraced houses with no private parking spots and they can't charge their cars overnight. Here in UK the vast majority of people I know live in places where it would be impossible to take out a charging cable at night, so the only option is...charging at work? But who will foot the bill for installing chargers at literally every single parking spot everywher…

"Parking is not Free"

Those parking spots already cost a lot of money. Setting up chargers is not unreasonable.

Heck, bundle it into the price of the car for home use. A thousand dollar bump, paid over time, not a big deal.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#155

I don't get it. Mandating that auto manufacturers sell a certain percentage of electric vehicles seems a bit like legislating the weather. If CA really wants to push people into electric vehicles, why not manipulate the demand for electric vehicles? Perhaps add another dollar or two to the gasoline tax?

> Mandating that auto manufacturers sell a certain percentage of electric vehicles seems a bit like legislating the weather.

nope. We have levers for the market that we don't have for the weather. In this situation the manufacturer's are forced by the state either to sell cheap EVs or develop more capable EVs - attracting buyers either way through pure market devices. As conservatives like to point, developing a more capable and cheaper car is not the business of government, it is the business of the car businesses. Government in this case does exactly what it does best - applies force.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#156

1. "Sergio Marchionne had a funny thing to say about the $32,500 battery-powered Fiat 500e that his company markets in California as “eco-chic.” “I hope you don’t buy it,” he told his audience at a think tank in Washington in May 2014. He said he loses $14,000 on every 500e he sells and only produces the cars because state rules re­quire it. Marchionne, who took over the bailed-out Chrysler in 2009 to form Fiat Chrys…

So, I think you are trying to make an argument that opposes these more stringent emissions requirements (correct me if I'm wrong), but I could just as easily read these the other way...

1. Chrysler's fleet is so inefficient that they have to make one-off cars to bring up their average, losing money on each one. This regulation is single-handedly forcing them to improve their fleet or suffer massive hemorrhaging from the electric car mandates. Seems like it's working...

2. Gas costs more in California, making people buy more efficient cars, drive less, and seek mass-transit options, reducing traffic and encouraging increased density. Maybe they'll buy a Fiat 500e?

3. Fossil fuels have helped us get where we are, and now energy is so ubiquitous that we have the luxury of looking for more efficient/less-emissive options...

Looks like things are shaping up pretty well to me!

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#157
This is yet another indication that people at the highest levels of government simply don't understand or care how free markets work. You don't raise demand for anything by mandating increasing levels of production of a product that people won't buy. You do it by incentivizing or subsidizing the development of a product (and in the case of cars, a nationwide infrastructure) that has advantages over those already in the market.

The major hurdles with electric cars are cost and range. Cost will come down on its own as battery technology improves. But imagine if these politicians were intelligent and instead used their power to mandate that the industry agree on a standard for interchangeable batteries, that all electric cars sold must conform to the standard, and that all sellers of the gasoline that they hate so much must install equipment to do automated swaps of charged for uncharged batteries. If recharging the car (battery swaps) were faster, cheaper, and more convenient than pumping gas, that would remove an enormous roadblock in the minds of many consumers. Consumer demand for electric cars would skyrocket, gas stations would have a massive new profit center, and as a side effect, politicians would get the environmental benefits they desire far faster than they would under their current plan.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Electric vehicles last longer. Do they? Because ICE vehicles last decades and they don't have expensive battery packs that need replacing.

I'm willing to bet all of the ICE-related maintenance will cost more than a battery pack replacement.

I drove a $500 dollar car another 100,000 miles and only had to do oil changes for the engine. I'm guessing shocks, struts, etc that I did have to fix would be the same on an electric. This was on a 90s car, I'm assuming the current generation of ICE cars will only last longer if properly taken care of.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#159

I wonder about the infrastructure change required for electric vehicles. The bay area relies extremely heavily on on-street parking. If everything is to go electric, will there be charging stations every 15 feet along every sidewalk?

In the not very distant future cars will drive themselves to a charging center and parking needs will be greatly reduced.

That's where things get interesting.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#160

Emergency situations and natural disasters, where are the discussions? Real life has the two and yet there is no real life discussion of what one should do with a pure electric car. Snow storm his the Midwest and nocks out the power. You need to get someone to the hospital or you work at a hospital how does one get the electricity to ready their vehicle? Electrical core for cars yes but pure electric cars for real wo…

This is where I start liking the Volt. Pure electric? No way. Not in Michigan winters.
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