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Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com

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Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#41

Post by notyourwork »

SmellTheGlove wrote: post #15
mendeza wrote: post #6

What about student loan debt, how does that factor into the economy or the stock market being affected? Right now student loan debt is at 1.4 trillion source: https://www.debt.org/students/

I wouldn't worry about student loan debt being a problem. It's very likely that they're going to get a bailout before a bubble bursts. Where on earth did I come up with this, you ask? Easy - I just paid my student loans off last week. It's only natural that everyone else will now get bailed out! Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something. Even if it doesn't have a direct effect any time soo…

I completely agree, this is going to be a problem for our generation. For those of us who are lucky enough to not have any student debt, how can we take advantage of this?

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#42

Post by vvdcect »

TekMol wrote: post #25

The page strives solely on it's nice graphics, and sensationalist wording. There is little to no content of substance. For example the page calculates "Market Overvaluation" as the US stock market value divided by the yearly US GDP. Hilarious.

How would you calculate Market overvaluation?

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#43

Post by [deleted] »

truffle_pig wrote: post #3
timsayshey wrote: post #2

Really cool idea. As someone that hasn't really investigated the market indicators for collapse this is really eye opening. It really breaks things down into plain english. Hope this goes to the top for some rational/interesting conversation.

Thanks for the kind words! I'm not an economist myself so I'm hoping others on HN might be able to correct any inaccuracies.

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#44

Post by grandinj »

The answer is of course: YES.

The more important question is when, and the answer to that is "who knows".

The market is a chaotic system, with severe non-linear responses. As such, it can remain stable much longer than people think, and crash much harder than anyone expects.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#46

Post by mathiasben »

mathiasben wrote: post #29

I feel as though the "stock market" following the 2008 crisis has become further insulated from the larger economies fundamentals. wages can continue to not keep up with inflation, savings rate continues it's downward slide, household debt service payments consume an ever increasing slice of disposable income, etc... all the while the type of dramatic dislocation event similar to 1929, 1987 are unlikely to occur. the…

the stock market is so divorced from the actual economy that over half of Americans don't participate in any way at all whether through direct purchase, 401k, mutual funds, etc.. most of the action on the stock markets is companies rebuying their stock to generate earnings and hedge funds and the less than half of Americans who have access to retirement planning.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#47

Post by truffle_pig »

runako wrote: post #35

I've never seen market valuation expressed as market cap as % of GDP. I'm not an economist, so I'll leave the detailed arguments to them. But it would be at least useful to explain why you think this is a meaningful metric as compared to those typically used to measure market valuation (e.g. P/E ratios etc.). Your graph also ties your valuation metric to the 2000 peak and the 2008 peak. However, there were crashes in…

Good points, I might go into a bit more detail for how I calculate the risk for each factor.

Thanks for the feedback

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#48

Post by krit_dms »

truffle_pig wrote: post #27
avip wrote: post #20

I love the design and phrasing. This is just a well-done website. It would be really interesting to see your collapse pyramid over time. How did it look in 2000? 2008?

This is a good idea. I'm going to implement it as a timeline I think.

It not really an easy thing to do, but value weighted price/earning would probably be the most common way to do it.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#49

Post by anonu »

As the site makes clear, nobody really ever knows if the market is going to crash. On the market valuation side they claim the current market is overvalued. But overvalued is a relative term... As you have to value versus something, and that something is usually something historical.

The way I see it though is the markets are a big voting machine.. and they're making predictions about the future and incorporating future expectations. With the current US administration still pondering over tax plans and infrastructure stimulus packages that are promised, market may be underpriced???

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