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Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

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Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#131

Post by podocarp »

themaninthedark wrote: post #113
throw310822 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the attack on Iran was simply instigated by Israel, which has been trying to push the US in a war with Iran since at least 20 years. Trump has a long history of doing what Israel wants- it's him who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem (which was illegally annexed by Israel), tore up the nuclear agreement with Iran, sanctioned the ICC, sponsored accords to get Arab states to accept the occupation of Palestine, and j…

I disagree with the current Iran action, however we can't just say that Iran has been forthcoming and compliant with their agreements. >During the 1990s and early 2000s, Iran developed several undeclared sites, which were identified by international observers in 2002 and 2009. Following the collapse of negotiations with the EU-3 in 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors found Iran in n…

Ah, if only Iran did not get pushed onto the path of being a rogue state by the CIA. If only we just let other countries be normal.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#132

Post by podocarp »

petcat wrote: post #57
brokencipher wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this the reason why they specifically targeted Venezuela, to get their oil?

Venezuela and Iran are strategic targets to control China's supply of crude oil. That's pretty much it. USA can produce all the oil/energy it needs for itself. Everything else is about controlling the energy supply to adversaries.

This is frequently stated as a goal of the 5D chess but it is ridiculous if you think about it. China is not buying oil and gas from Russia at discount rates (and had been for quite a while). They haven't performed blood rites with Venezuela that force them to only get oil from Venezuela. They can buy it from anybody who is willing to sell. Even if you sink the Middle East into the ocean they will still be able to buy oil from others, albeit at much higher prices. So no, this is not a strategic target, unless you actually want to attrition them to bankruptcy with oil prices. But this path is and should be very unpopular with regular citizens.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#133

Post by tdu01 »

Nice. How does this stand up against backtesting with recent data? Also, i thought China's emergency stockpile is about 1.4b barrels or close 5 months of domestic consumption, and they are building it up atm. In the sim, it shows China's stockpile depleted after 1.2 wks?

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#134

Post by tclancy »

slilo wrote: post #121
tclancy wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clicked it and was greeted by a YouTube ad opening “How the fuck am I going to get a big dick from eating gelatin?” And then the woman in scrubs on the cowboy’s front porch explained it all to him. It’s nice because it ensures I’m never going to get over-smart from watching YouTube. Plus I gotta go get some Jell-O.

> Plus I gotta go get some Jell-O. Don't forget to post a Show HN success story.

Will do, but I need to master the panorama feature on my phone first.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#135

Post by eliotho »

tdu01 wrote: post #133

Nice. How does this stand up against backtesting with recent data? Also, i thought China's emergency stockpile is about 1.4b barrels or close 5 months of domestic consumption, and they are building it up atm. In the sim, it shows China's stockpile depleted after 1.2 wks?

Thanks! Two answers (repeated in other comments): UN Comtrade data doesn't include sanctioned oil (Iran), and nobody (except their government) knows China's actual stockpile. The model is more of a sensible baseline/stress testing tool than a prediction, the cool part is that anyone can BTON (bring their own numbers) and rerun their scenarios

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#136

Post by eliotho »

NooneAtAll3 wrote: post #110

did you model rapid decrease of oil import by China?

it came from the data (UN Comtrade) that notably doesn't include sanctioned oil flows (Iran, etc). On top of that, China's reserve levels are a state secret, yet, the model's framework is BYOD (Bring Your Own Data) which gives the depletion timeline for free. Also, the model is more of a sensible baseline than a prediction
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