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Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

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Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#121

Post by slilo »

tclancy wrote: post #103
neom wrote: post #48

Tangentially related but just watched this pretty interesting youtube mini-doc-thing about the recent moves China has been making regarding oil (and its bigger picture): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0

Clicked it and was greeted by a YouTube ad opening “How the fuck am I going to get a big dick from eating gelatin?” And then the woman in scrubs on the cowboy’s front porch explained it all to him. It’s nice because it ensures I’m never going to get over-smart from watching YouTube. Plus I gotta go get some Jell-O.

> Plus I gotta go get some Jell-O.

Don't forget to post a Show HN success story.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#122

Post by lanstin »

tclancy wrote: post #102
cheschire wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you also provided was conjecture based on… oh right you didn’t provide what it’s based on. Citation needed. What I meant with nobody talking about it was that outside of your post your bullet points aren’t being brought up in any reliable sources.

I get what you’re getting at, but do you honestly expect mainstream press to have a story on the technical details of oil production?

Kind of? It is of central importance at this time.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#123

Post by edmundsauto »

themaninthedark wrote: post #113
throw310822 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the attack on Iran was simply instigated by Israel, which has been trying to push the US in a war with Iran since at least 20 years. Trump has a long history of doing what Israel wants- it's him who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem (which was illegally annexed by Israel), tore up the nuclear agreement with Iran, sanctioned the ICC, sponsored accords to get Arab states to accept the occupation of Palestine, and j…

I disagree with the current Iran action, however we can't just say that Iran has been forthcoming and compliant with their agreements. >During the 1990s and early 2000s, Iran developed several undeclared sites, which were identified by international observers in 2002 and 2009. Following the collapse of negotiations with the EU-3 in 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors found Iran in n…

Tell the story of what’s happened in the last 15 years, not just the 2000s under Bush 2.

In 2015, the JCPOA was signed to address some of these shortcomings. It especially enhanced verification and started discussions between Iran and the rest of the world. But rather than build on it, the 45th administration decided to cut it up without alternatives in place.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#124

Post by cheschire »

tclancy wrote: post #102
cheschire wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you also provided was conjecture based on… oh right you didn’t provide what it’s based on. Citation needed. What I meant with nobody talking about it was that outside of your post your bullet points aren’t being brought up in any reliable sources.

I get what you’re getting at, but do you honestly expect mainstream press to have a story on the technical details of oil production?

There was a time...

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#125

Post by specproc »

neilellis wrote: post #106
kccqzy wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would be sometime around October/November, right in the middle of harvest season Right in the middle of election season.

You guys still having elections?

This could well be the last one for a while

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#126

Post by anigbrowl »

cheschire wrote: post #90
anigbrowl wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are talking about this, because we're discussing a model of oil price vs availability which includes modeling of national oil reserves. I'm pointing out that the popularly understood amount of US reserve levels somewhat overestimates the available cushion, and provided two different and easily verifiable reasons for considering it to be smaller than the headline number. I also specified that I was oversimplifying…

What you also provided was conjecture based on… oh right you didn’t provide what it’s based on. Citation needed. What I meant with nobody talking about it was that outside of your post your bullet points aren’t being brought up in any reliable sources.

Consider the possibility that this is a failure of the business press rather than on my part. I linked to the recent GAO report on the physical state of the SPR facilities and infrastructure elsewhere in the thread. You might also find this trucking industry overview of the fuel supply situation illuminating. I leave it to you to dig around in the Department of Energy's website until you find the (obscure) tracking data for sour vs sweet stocks and integrate with other information, from storage chamber maintenance issues to anomalous outcomes in recent commodity loan offerings.

https://tanktransport.com/2026/07/strategic-petroleum-reserv... https://www.plainview-energy.com/p/us-spr-deep-dive-part-iv-...

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#128

Post by kashunstva »

brokencipher wrote: post #52
anigbrowl wrote: post #35

An interesting fact to consider is that the US stockpile (the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is reported as the total of sour (high sulfur) and sweet (low sulfur) crude oil. The sweet stock makes up about 1/3 of the reserve and hardly varies at all. This is because US refineries are virtually all configured for sour crude: due to a mistaken belief in the 1990s that sweet crude was running out, the industry bet the farm…

Isn't this the reason why they specifically targeted Venezuela, to get their oil?

Oh. It wasn’t because the authoritarian leader was involved somehow in drug trafficking and needed kidnapping? Or was that a distraction from the distraction?

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#129

Post by themaninthedark »

elzbardico wrote: post #117
themaninthedark wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree with the current Iran action, however we can't just say that Iran has been forthcoming and compliant with their agreements. >During the 1990s and early 2000s, Iran developed several undeclared sites, which were identified by international observers in 2002 and 2009. Following the collapse of negotiations with the EU-3 in 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors found Iran in n…

Considering Israel has a illegal nuclear program, why should we hold Iran to a higher standard?

Not sure what you mean by illegal.

India, Israel, Pakistan and South Sudan are all non-parties to the non-proliferation treaty. Iran is a party.

North Korea was a party, gave notice to withdraw, said they were still in then said they were out. The way that Iran is acting parallels the behavior of North Korea.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#130

Post by tclancy »

cheschire wrote: post #124
tclancy wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get what you’re getting at, but do you honestly expect mainstream press to have a story on the technical details of oil production?

There was a time...

This was never a thing.
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