781–790 of 816 posts
- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the people are just poorer and more desperate Precisely because of this, globalization is destined to stay. It is the ultimate wet dream of capital: an endless reserve of cheap labor. Marx might not have got the prognosis right, but his diagnosis still holds.
If you look at China, it's exactly due to the West's insatiable appetite for cheaper labor that it has become more technically competent, and more well-off, especially the coastal cities. And this is why it now (for some years) ceases to be a pool of cheap labor: the living standards, while not near Western, have risen so much, the Western customers started finding the labor cost too high. Now it's the turn of Vietna…
In practice, in aggregate they are. As you mentioned, there were other countries filling that gap before, and there will be new ones. East Asia got there first because of a combination of factors (cultural, historic, and logistical), but once that area is spent, new frontiers will be opened. In fact, in markets where there are fewer logistical constraints (i.e. software), those new frontiers are already coming online (South America, Africa, etc).
- Recession by the end of the year (might not be entirely apparently until 2024 though, but at some point in 2024 at least one quarter in 2023 is designated a recession) - Binance and Coinbase collapse - BTC trades at under $4k (really I only think there's about a 50-50 chance of this happening and it also might be a 2024 prediction since I think the recession is the trigger--I'm also not making a prediction that BTC…
Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me: -The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and training isn't that large. -Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular occupy this swee…
We probably need at least another doubling of global processing power before we will see any major advancements in AI tech, which will take 3-7 years in my opinion.
I would enjoy being proven wrong, but I fear I am actually overly optimistic.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. This is, errrr, very specific.
It's a great almost-specific prediction! Followers of ancient prophets would be proud. It's the kind of thing that has a 1% chance of being accurate--it sounds very specific because it mentions France, but has ample wiggle room: - It includes "any major world leader" not just French leaders; - If a world leader of any stripe were to die in a plane crash next March, people would still argue in favor of the prediction…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Was there something ambiguous about destroying the most prosperous African nation?
I guess that part when Gaddafi promised to massacre the revolting cities street by street got many frowning.
https://www.salon.com/2016/09/16/u-k-parliament-report-detai...
Of course, those of us who pay any attention whatsoever already knew that back in 2011.
- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…
Are you high?
- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…
> Google will cancel the Search product I wouldn't be surprised if they created a new experimental search product using GPT3: GAIgle.
- Putin will still control Russia on December 31st, 2023.
- Several countries collapse economically, which leads to a humanitarian crisis in one or all of these countries: Pakistan, Lebanon, Haiti, Ukraine, and Yemen.
- Finland and Sweden join NATO finally
- China has a deep recession
- Dianne Feinstein announces retirement
- Apple's AR glasses will not be announced
- No Apple car will be announced
- US starts ramping up production of military hardware for possible war with China and its allies
- A major terrorist attack in Europe
- A major supply chain cyber attack
- Magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan near Tokyo
A major tsunami or shipping incident could occur in the Indian Ocean or Southeast Asia.
A plane may crash into the ground in Northeast India or Bangladesh.
There may be a train disaster in Western China.
There could be an explosion at Pine Gap or Alice Springs in Australia.