Earlier quoted context omitted.
Quantum information is indeed a new field. Yet, I wouldn't compare it with 20s or 70s. In the last 20 years there was hardly any paradigm shift in that matter (don't be fooled by poor science reporting/popularizing or scientist overadvertising their results, in search for fame and grants). And for example, when I as attending conferences in quantum information (my PhD field), people were constantly lowering their exp…
I myself am getting at PhD in quantum information. I completely agree that the timeline for quantum computing was extremely optimistic 20 years ago. However, I think current estimates are much closer to the truth. We now have a much better understanding of the systems on which we are building QCs. Estimates of fault-tolerance thresholds have become much better. We have 20 years of experimental progress to extrapolate…
The thing I do not want to normalize w field by its difficulty - then progress would be just related to the effective number of smart people working on it.
I was raised in a scientific culture (Central/Eastern Europe), where difficulty was a virtue, not - impact. But that way produces a --lot-- small number (because they are difficult!) of difficult results, with little impact.
Likewise, the most progress happens where there are low-hanging fruits.