581–590 of 620 posts
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How do those confidence levels work? It looks to me you're just assigning probabilities to outcomes.
I think it's roughly: "I would bet 9$ to your $1 that this happens", although some of these are vague enough that you couldn't objectively determine whether the bet materialized.
Auto makers will decide that putting 6 headlights on pickup trucks is no longer competitive. Consequently, they will innovate that the world needs pickup trucks with 8 headlights, starting in 2025. FML.
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"Broken Money" by Lyn Alden is a good engineering background. Then, for example, read one of many macro articles on fiscal dominance. You do not have to read Lyn first, but without reading it on modern financial systems I personally would not understand most technical points in the current macro discussions.
Even then though, there is a giant global debit maturity wall from covid that needs refinancing at much higher interest rates that starts coming due in 2026 and 2027. That is much sooner than fiscal dominance in the US. I suspect we can go to 100 trillion in debt at least without fiscal dominance. I suspect everyone will understand what fiscal dominance is in the 2030s though. This liquidity problem from debt refinan…
With the US budget deficit over 35% there are fewer and fewer external parties willing to lend to the US at low rates. The government could reduce the spending (yeah), collect more taxes (raising taxes 50% across the board -- sure) or use fiscal dominance to lower the rates. Fiscal dominance could be done in a variety of ways, either directly (e.g., printing money and using it to buy own bonds) or indirectly (e.g., by printing money and requiring pension funds to hold some treasuries), but whatever way it is done, the increase in M2 that goes with it will devalue assets for an average person. This is not the future; this is already happening via various quantitative easing programs. That was a US-centric view; Western Europe is in a broadly similar state.
The beauty of fiscal dominance for politicians and MMT-subscribing economists is that it removes the liquidity problem from debt refinancing. The problem (and the quiet part that some forget about and say out loud) is that it requires capital controls.
Capital flow controls was something the US had naturally in the 1940s, when a major US fiscal dominance effort was last run. But this is not the state today. In the modern world where one can buy gold, bitcoin or any of 100+ currencies with a few keystrokes capital controls will be harder to enforce.
Next decade will likely be very interesting, at least from the financials viewpoint... My 2c.
Forget about 2025. I predict that, despite being a highly valued member of my organization and despite my company making money hand over fist, I will not get a holiday bonus this year.
"Best year ever!" "Sorry, we can't do raises this year." Who is getting all the money?
There’s organisational equivalents of this.
Generative AI: Widespread integration of AI tools in workplaces for productivity and creativity.
Quantum Computing: Advances in quantum computing could bring breakthroughs in problem-solving for industries like healthcare and finance.
AI Regulation: Governments may introduce stricter AI regulations to ensure ethical use and minimize risks.
Space Exploration: Private and public sector missions (e.g., SpaceX, NASA, ISRO) will push further into space, with a focus on lunar exploration and Mars missions.
2. Economic Trends
Global Recession or Recovery: Many economies may face challenges with inflation and recession, though emerging markets might show resilience. Remote Work Evolution: Hybrid work models will mature, and gig economy platforms may grow.
Crypto Regulation: Stricter crypto policies in countries aiming to stabilize financial markets.
3. Environment and Climate
Climate Action: Countries and corporations will focus on green technologies like renewable energy, EVs, and carbon capture.
Extreme Weather: Climate change may lead to more unpredictable weather patterns, pushing sustainable living to the forefront.
Biodiversity: Efforts to protect ecosystems and endangered species will become more urgent.
4. Education and Skill Development
Online Education: EdTech platforms will continue to innovate, with more AI-powered personalization.
Demand for Skills: High demand for skills like data analytics, AI, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and sustainable development practices.
5. Health and Well-Being
Healthcare Tech: Continued focus on telemedicine, wearable devices, and AI-driven diagnostics.
Mental Health: Increased societal focus on mental health, with improved access to virtual therapies.
Pandemic Preparedness: Investment in early warning systems and vaccines for future pandemics.
6. Society and Culture
Digital Communities: Growth of communities in spaces like Discord, Reddit, and LinkedIn for networking and learning.
Minimalism: Post-pandemic shifts toward minimalism and sustainability in lifestyle choices.
Entertainment: Growth in immersive experiences like VR gaming and metaverse spaces.
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> LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. 100% wrong. LLMs are wildly useful in daily life, even the cheaper models.
For real. It's always a headscratcher when I see these weird takes against it. Amazon has been working with Anthropic which at the very least will create a much more comprehensive Alexa. > expensive talking fidget spinners Like Alexa, Siri, and Hey Google? Which are used A LOT and will only be used more when they're natural, smarter, and conversational? Always a strange take.
Turns out the top queries billions of dollars went into were to set timers or to play a song.
I would love to be proven wrong though.
* One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons) * LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and…
1. I don't know 2. I think this is probably right-ish. From what I hear LLMs are nearing what they do and I have never found any interesting use other than just laughing at them (which I could do with markov chains). AI-generated images are hideous and I have no opinion on AI-generated music as I just choose not to expose myself to it 3. Again, don't know 4. God I hope so. That would be such a funny trend. Plan9 come…
7. I would love to see a world that develops into something like dwarf fortress that uses AI instead of hard coded rules. And make it accessible too. By AI I really mean something like RL not the hyped up LLM craze.
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Google will rename their AI product at least 3 times, Google will also launch and shut down at least 5 messaging services.
Google AI will be better and more popular than the rest before they shut it down.
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Suppose the correlation was this simple and reliable, why don’t the markets already reflect it?
Alan Greenspan phrased it as “irrational exuberance”. Also, most Americans’ tax advantaged retirement accounts (via 401Ks) are locked in with consistent contributions to diversified index funds or ETFs containing primarily large market cap companies that make up a majority of the stock market.
If you can reliably make accurate predictions, then why on earth would you be talking about it instead of making the correspond bet via some combination of securities?