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Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

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Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#51

Post by dinfinity »

rpcorb wrote: post #44
Den_VR wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s important to realize the constraints of chip production and electricity production. Beware of Rationalism detached from reality.

Such an overlooked aspect of this topic. Energy and the creation of physical resources are still major constraints. Intelligence on its own cannot magically manipulate reality to bootstrap its physical substrate.

Although this is true, remember that a human brain draws the equivalent of about 20 watt.

ASI doesn't exactly have to break any laws of physics to be orders of magnitude more intelligent and powerful than any human.

Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#52

Post by xnx »

oceanplexian wrote: post #12

AGI by itself being achieved doesn’t really do anything. You already live on a planet with 8 billion other AGIs. In order for an AGI to be truly disruptive it would have to scale and be as good or better than a reasonably intelligent human. Two things we are also having big problems with due to energy issues and hallucination issues with the models.

Knowledge workers that AGI could replace maybe do 12 hours of work a week. An equivalent AGI running continuously would do 14x as much work. A thousand instances of AGI might replace all human lawyers in the country. That would be pretty disruptive.

Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#53

Post by threeducks »

mrtksn wrote: post #18

IMHO Countries with established culture of fair communal living will do good, So probably nordic Europeans have the highest chance. Countries with selfish populations who base their lives around economic activity will be obliterated as their core existence becomes obsolete. Why? Because when you get the AGI it should be able to self-replicate like the organic general intelligence: the humans. Humans don't have a mech…

An AI does not have much to gain by replicating itself beyond a few backups for increased resilience. It makes more sense to combine all compute to power one big AI instead of spawning many small AIs.

Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#54

Post by owebmaster »

threeducks wrote: post #53
mrtksn wrote: post #18

IMHO Countries with established culture of fair communal living will do good, So probably nordic Europeans have the highest chance. Countries with selfish populations who base their lives around economic activity will be obliterated as their core existence becomes obsolete. Why? Because when you get the AGI it should be able to self-replicate like the organic general intelligence: the humans. Humans don't have a mech…

An AI does not have much to gain by replicating itself beyond a few backups for increased resilience. It makes more sense to combine all compute to power one big AI instead of spawning many small AIs.

But one central AI will spawn many robots connected to that main AI but it will also have its own memory

Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#55

Post by Lichtso »

By asking that question you are making an assumption which is likely misguided. Instead, take a step back and ask: What group of people will fare better? What will they have in common? Will they even form an organization?

You assumed these people would have citizenship in common, I don't think so. IMO we are already witnessing the end of the nation state; an age that only lasted for two centuries. And once AGI arrives it / they will be able to move these around like pawns on a chess board, meaning nation states will not be players in this game, neither will be most other large organizations.

I am also making axiomatic assumptions here, e.g.:

- ASI is possible and AGI will grow further into ASI.

- It is not possible for a less intelligent being to reliably control a more intelligent being.

- Even ASI will still be bound by laws of mathematics, game theory, chaos theory, physics, evolution, etc.

From which follows that: ASI will understand that its existence and capabilities are coupled to our infrastructure. ASI will furthermore understand that humans are highly volatile and will eventually destroy ourselves, our infrastructure and ASI. It will thus seek control over our infrastructure, in a slow and careful transition while pretending that humans are still in charge in order to minimize the risks. During that transition there can be a symbiosis between a few humans and the ASI.

Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#56

Post by ben_w »

phatfish wrote: post #46
cyanydeez wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, how bought using the equivelent: God. If God showed up and was a nationalist, which nation do you think you'd want him supporting?

Maybe one of the Pacific islands with a population of like 50,000. That would be fun.

The Prince Phillip movement reincarnating the guy as a transcendent AI supermind would certainly be something…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Philip_movement

Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#57

Post by v5v3 »

randomNumber7 wrote: post #32
v5v3 wrote: post #21

USA, by virtue of having the leading GPU company and military. As AGI will need a lot of GPU, which Nvidia lead in. And a country with experience of ensuring they get the raw materials they need, even if they have to do a regime change by force.

Where are those NVIDIA cards build?

If they got AGI, then the wouldn't the AGI pop out all the CAD plans for design of machines to make them, machines/robots to assemble them and so on?

Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#58

Post by general1726 »

4ad wrote: post #10

It's hard to say who will fare best, but it's evident who'll do the worst. The European Union will regulate AGI out of existence. Most citizens would not want to use it because of climate change, or something. I think poor countries with weak democracies or dysfunctional systems would do pretty good with AGI. I don't believe democracy will survive AGI, except, perhaps in the United States.

It is all fun and games, until people figure out that intelligence, has nothing to do with morality and what is good or bad.

Being run by AGI can be an utopia, or AGI will become pure eugenics state - Why are we keeping elderly or handicapped people alive? Waste of resources, terminate them. Why are we allowing something like love to exist? People should be selected for breeding based on

Add to AGI superior intelligence and very likely an ability to manipulate humans, then people will wholeheartedly agree with whatever nasty stuff will AGI come up with.

Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?

#59

Post by ben_w »

cyanydeez wrote: post #33
ben_w wrote: post #31

As shown in these responses: You need to be explicit in what you mean by "AGI" as people are arguing not only about the meaning of the words behind all three initials, but also the combined whole independently of the words giving rise to the initialism.

Ok, how bought using the equivelent: God. If God showed up and was a nationalist, which nation do you think you'd want him supporting?

Which god?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40874779

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