Ask HN: Predictions for 2025? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#471

Post by WXLCKNO » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:31 PM UTC

benjaminwootton wrote: post #112

abetusk wrote: post #108

* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, e…

I think you’d need an almighty market rally for some of these. For the first trillionaire we’d need to see Tesla double and the market would need to be going bananas for Bitcoin to 2x. Remember 2024 has been a monster year in the markets and they just indicated they are slowing down the rate cuts.

I guess at the current market cap you may be right about 2x being "a lot", but the crypto market is no stranger to multiple increases.

And the valves are fully open now with a ton of Bitcoin/Crypto ETFs across the planet and in the US in particular. Even at these prices it won't take that much to raise the price drastically.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#472

Post by WXLCKNO » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:34 PM UTC

nozzlegear wrote: post #74

I predict that I will finally finish making that bird feeder camera that I've been wanting to make for my wife. I've got all the parts for it, I just need to figure out how to put them together and write some code to take a picture of a bird. Can't be too hard, right?

A friend of mine just bought this for his mom, I thought it was really cool apparently it can recognize if the same bird comes multiple times and stuff like that

https://www.birdfy.com/products/birdfy-feeder

But I just saw it has a subscription fee lol. I understand but no way would I get that.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#473

Post by WXLCKNO » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:34 PM UTC

0x00cl wrote: post #442

Lets get creative - There will be a "Predictions for 2026" thread. (Hehehe) - OpenAI announces GPT-5 will be the last model of the GPT-n series (As in they won't release a GPT-6) - Apple will sell a backpack (With some sort of technology included of course) - Magnus Carlsen will lose his 1st place in the FIDE top ranking. ("He has held the No. 1 position in the FIDE world chess rankings since 1 July 2011") - E.T. wil…

I haven't been following chess much, is there anyone in particular he would love his ranking to?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#474

Post by dTal » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:36 PM UTC

exitb wrote: post #171

thepuppet33r wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still not sure how they plan to enforce this. Even now, I see an age verification popup on both illicit sites and even sites I feel are innocuous. But I can just click that I'm old enough to move on. If the social media companies are only trying to shift blame, this makes sense. They're not liable if the customer lies. But if that loophole is closed, the only way to enforce age approved sites would be a global id…

You’ll be asked to log in into a government-run account, which will pinky promise not to store who accessed what.

That's not a technical requirement; you could simply have a government-verified official public key. You could "log in" by signing a challenge message with your private key. The government would have no log that you'd even used your official government ID.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#475

Post by WXLCKNO » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:36 PM UTC

uncomplexity_ wrote: post #132

andy_ppp wrote: post #7

Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.

haha this is gonna be an interesting one for sure. it's crazy how us humans yearn for magic pills for the highs and the lows just to get ourselves in a healthy baseline and as bryan johnson's experiments look like, it all comes down to our consistency in eating healthy, exercising regularly, and resting enough - those three alone will net you better health than most people - and it's hard to get into habit of doing t…

Fully agree on consistency, unfortunately I realized after a while that my anxiety was preventing me from being consistent and after getting some medication, I was able to get back into all these habits.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#476

Post by ranyume » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:43 PM UTC

nindalf wrote: post #298

swiftcoder wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with significant benefit to kids Straight kids from stable homes, perhaps. For LGBT kids, or kids in abusive homes, it's the end of a significant lifeline.

It's interesting yet saddening to play out the consequences along the path you've outlined. LGBT kids, by definition a 2-4% minority, are unlikely to find other people like themselves. They remain closeted for longer, trying and failing to conform. Their struggle will be unfortunate, but also not measurable . What will be measurable is the % of youth who identify as LGBT, which will be lower because more of them woul…

> That'll be a win for people who want to "protect kids from LGBT ideology".

That'd be dumb and funny if politicians wouldn't abuse people's fears to boost conspiracy theories for their agenda. For example, where I live some politicians associated the trans community with paedophilic behavior.

I don't understand their endgame really. Where these anti free choice (anti-freedom) stances come from.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#477

Post by disambiguation » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:43 PM UTC

idiot_predictor wrote: post #165

* One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons) * LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and…

+1 for AI games.

I'll add to it that we'll see more gamification of AI training as well. I.e your play data becomes training data.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#478

Post by nozzlegear » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:45 PM UTC

WXLCKNO wrote: post #472

nozzlegear wrote: post #74

I predict that I will finally finish making that bird feeder camera that I've been wanting to make for my wife. I've got all the parts for it, I just need to figure out how to put them together and write some code to take a picture of a bird. Can't be too hard, right?

A friend of mine just bought this for his mom, I thought it was really cool apparently it can recognize if the same bird comes multiple times and stuff like that https://www.birdfy.com/products/birdfy-feeder But I just saw it has a subscription fee lol. I understand but no way would I get that.

Yep, that's what inspired my project! My wife is a wildlife photographer, and taking pictures of the squirrels and birds at our feeders is what started her down that path. I had wanted to get her one of those feeders, but they're all subscription based and send the photos to their cloud/AI services. Like you said, I understand it. It's a really neat product for people who enjoy birding, but I want to try my hand at building something that can run off a Raspberry Pi and sync to my local NAS instead of a third-party cloud service.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#479

Post by mdaniel » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 5:57 PM UTC

abetusk wrote: post #108

* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, e…

> Twitter and Facebook will still be around, Bluesky will be no more, Mastodon will continue to be niche

I'd be curious to know if you have an expectation for what will cause your cited Bluesky death. About 6 months ago I would have probably backed a prediction of "will remain niche" for it just like your Mastodon one, but now I am following some relatively big name accounts that have migrated over. And I undoubtedly enjoy the experience a lot more than X

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#480

Post by wolfgang42 » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 6:00 PM UTC

nightowl_games wrote: post #426

nindalf wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting yet saddening to play out the consequences along the path you've outlined. LGBT kids, by definition a 2-4% minority, are unlikely to find other people like themselves. They remain closeted for longer, trying and failing to conform. Their struggle will be unfortunate, but also not measurable . What will be measurable is the % of youth who identify as LGBT, which will be lower because more of them woul…

The root issue here is children not coming out to their parents. If we improve that metric, we can begin to improve all other metrics. Ie: the parent can help the child discover appropriate peer groups

That requires the parents to be accepting and engaged, which is a great long-term goal but will take much longer to achieve than the first-order effects of losing access to peer communities. (There are also feedback loops: a group being less visible means that people in the group are less likely to realize it isn’t something uniquely wrong with them, there are fewer other people who know fact from myth, and so on.)