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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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371–380 of 462 posts

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#371
post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chile has massive income and wealth inequality. What good is being "rich" in terms of raw GDP if in practice that wealth goes to a small elite?

Apparently quite a lot. Poverty has gone down six-fold in a generation: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY?end=2017&lo...

I wonder how much more it would have gone down if Chile had a more equitable economic system.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#372
post #263

> -People become more privacy aware after an image search engine with facial recognition is popularized and they realize that any picture ever posted of them by anyone is in the search result for their name. People become less willing to let others take compromising pictures as if they become posted, the link back to them will be made. Not an image search engine as much as whole governments but this rings eerily true…

The sad part is that I don't think this has caused people, on average, to become all that much more privacy-aware. Or, if they are, they still don't really care.

Privacy awareness is certainly not mainstream, if you see someone not using any Google service or so they'll probably be assumed paranoid and labelled a cypherpunk.

Funnily enough, my Dad asked me about what happens with data in the cloud the other day so that was interesting.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a weird thing that happens here with language: school shootings mean multiple things. So, if someone is shot at a school at an after-hours drug deal gone awry, that counts just as much as parkland, even though there is a very distinguishable difference between the two.

That’s exactly what the lists of “4375 school shootings this year!” are actually made of. Someone in New Jersey shot a rat 2 blocks from a school - school shooting. Drive by between rival gangs near a college - school shooting. Resource officer discharges his gun in his car - school shooting.

Well, they're comprised of that, and, y'know, children being murdered in mass.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> escalation of school shootings Bubble thought. School shootings are down from previous highs and are actually very rare [0]. COVERAGE and willingness to use any incident to promote a very specific narrative are up. [0] https://news.northeastern.edu/2018/02/26/schools-are-still-o...

"No Way To Prevent This", Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%27No_Way_To_Prevent_This,%27_...

Despite the vail of Wikipedia, your source is The Onion.

Does the onion’s satirical joke take into account all the places there are no guns but this does still happens?

Paris France, and Norway, have both had worse mass and school shootings than any in the USA ever.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On that thought, is there any way to prevent shootings without making guns harder or impossible for citizens to own? Seems many will not disarm in the US, so should we be exploring other options rather than repeatedly saying the US should be more like other countries?

Is it so bad to make guns as hard to own as a car? Simple licensing would go a long way to reduce the risk of guns. https://www.vox.com/2019/9/11/20861019/gun-solution-backgrou...

Last I checked, cars do not require any licensing to own. They require special licensing and often times yearly taxes to operate on public roads (but merely possessing them on public roads does not).

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s exactly what the lists of “4375 school shootings this year!” are actually made of. Someone in New Jersey shot a rat 2 blocks from a school - school shooting. Drive by between rival gangs near a college - school shooting. Resource officer discharges his gun in his car - school shooting.

Well, they're comprised of that, and, y'know, children being murdered in mass.

I agree that’s bad.

I think the only thing worse than lying about incidents to improve your statistics, is ignoring reality in arguing for policies and regulations that further instead of solve the problem.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#378
post #105

Some of those are really funny, but the one by adw nailed it. >adw on Jan 1, 2010 [-] >Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. >That'll be a watershed moment: the politics of information are going to start being the kind of core liberal issue that environmental issues currently are.

Thank you! There are still lessons to be learned from the early data journalism community, which is what got me thinking about this at the time; Craigslist eating classified advertising and Facebook eating display created this kind of apocalyptic burst of desperate creativity which didn’t save news but pointed in a bunch of important directions which haven’t been fully followed up.

wow crazy you found this comment.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#379
post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

It's interesting that it's so far down the page, too. Popularity and accuracy were inversely correlated from my reading of that thread.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#380
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the gotcha. If bitcoin hits $1M by 2030, the people reading your comment from the 2030 repost of this thread will have a good snicker. Bitcoin's entire value, literally all of it, is just an index for how widely and strongly felt HODLology is across the globe. The sale of a bitcoin is a cult member leaving, the purchase is a baptism, however transiently intended the purchase is, because the purchase represents…

Ok I make a prediction here for 2030: Bitcoin won't be at $1M at all, very far from it. Bitcoin will be between $0 and the cost of mining a single coin. Right now, this is around $7,000. Could be similar or less in 2030. I don't expect it to go anywhere. It seems to have a niche purpose, but will never gain mass adoption. I make another prediction: By 2030 not a single cryptocurrency will be used mainstream / have re…

That's a bold prediction,

I predict that gaming could see a huge uptick in crypto-currency usage. Could you imagine a game like Grand Theft Auto or World of Warcraft utilizing a crypto-currency rather than an in-game artificial currency? You could create entire in-game economies with real life value. People could actually make a living by playing games full time as scary as that sounds.

Could you imagine the moral implications of someone robbing you of crypto-currency in a game like GTA or some survival game?

I just think there's some very creative use-cases for crypto-currency that will pop up over the next decade.

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