A solar storm wipes out 20% of the US grid.
Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
341–350 of 620 posts
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#342I think the defining story of 2025 will be AI agents getting very good with computer use, largely enabled by RL fine tuning.
Lets hope so; computer use with AI is currently absolutely terrible. It is something I expected to see far larger progress in this year but it's no better than last year.
Yeah, +1. Looking back to the WebVoyager [1] and GPT4V generalist agent [2] papers from last January, it feels like we haven't come that far.
But there are now several major technical unlocks - fine tuning for cursor locations (in Claude), better reasoning with o3, and RL fine-tuning so we can learn based on task success.
That gives me significant hope.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#343-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…
> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k.
Wild prediction from me: Trump creates a US coin, everyone realises that a large government can easily create an alt coin, with enough people buying it and selling Bitcoin because it has the US government's support. Bitcoin then loses significant value and possibly becomes worthless eventually.
The value of Bitcoin is only there because it was the "first", but there is nothing fundamental about it that cannot be replicated. Am I wrong?
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#34490% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…
I don’t think global temperatures get another record because El Niño is over. Your „weather“ suggests a more local reference though?
It sounds more clever to use Confidence Level, rather than just saying you are pulling random probabilities out of your a$$
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#345Earlier quoted context omitted.
" is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources " The main problem is that for many reasons people tend to focus on the economic growth part while the population growth part is the killer.
Population growth is a solved problem. We have already passed peak births.
It is absolutely not a solved problem:
* Population is probably (it's actually a certainty in my mind) too high to be sustainable and it is still growing,
* Governments are terrified of population decrease because of the far-reaching effects on markets and public finances and are pushing for growth.
So it is a "less solved" problem than emissions as the IEA predicts that global fossil fuel demand will peak by 2025, possibly even this year.
It might be solved in some countries in the sense that population should now be naturally decreasing because of the low birth rate but it is in fact "not solved at all" considering the second bullet point above.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#346Bird flu pandemic.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#34790% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…
Really bullish on AI, huh?
Designing an engine?
“[snuffs] out common diseases”?
Solving SEO?
Idk cotton, let’s see how this plays out.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#348-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…
> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Wild prediction from me: Trump creates a US coin, everyone realises that a large government can easily create an alt coin, with enough people buying it and selling Bitcoin because it has the US government's support. Bitcoin then loses significant value and possibly becomes worthless eventually. The value of Bitcoin is only there because it…
Prediction: Musk will call it x-coin.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#349"Hybrid WW3" continues. Russia advances most everywhere in the proxy politics space (perhaps paradoxically except Syria.) Western economies continue on their troll-induced march to self-implosion. The defamation attacks on their Comparative Advantage industries intensify, particularly: - Non-Musk Big Tech / AI - Non-Musk aerospace (=> Boeing) - Wall Street / non-crypto finance - Non-Musk automotive - Hollywood Immigr…
I'm a young whippersnapper, but how is the current state of affairs more "WW3" than what happened in Vietnam and Korea? To me it seems we're back to cold war.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#35090% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…
Really bullish on AI, huh? Designing an engine? “[snuffs] out common diseases”? Solving SEO? Idk cotton, let’s see how this plays out.
Sniffs out, meaning diagnoses