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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#311

Post by rapsey »

lolinder wrote: post #35
OutOfHere wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just a bit out there; it's completely antithetical to what we're seeing in the data.

The data strongly suggests that AI is dealing with a bad case of a bubble, and it's not that far out there to suggest that the bubble will pop next year. That's not to say that some companies won't come out ahead—there were success stories that came out of the .com bubble too—but I'd give it no more then three years before the bubble bursts and the startup casualties stack up.

The AI bubble as of now is nothing compared to the dotcom bubble. The only real reflection of it is in the nVidia stock price. We're not seeing IPOs of companies making no revenue and being valued in billions. It is all mag 7 capex going into nVidia.

Private startups having high valuations is completely irrelevant. VCs getting wiped out is not relevant for the wider economy.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#313

Post by pjc50 »

cm2187 wrote: post #249
huijzer wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

That's true but apart from Poland, all large EU countries have anaemic weapon production and diverted all their military spending into social programs decades ago, which they cannot reverse. They are at their budget deficit limits and are all in territory where if they increase tax rates, tax proceeds go down (along with growth and employment). So the reality is that I don't think there is any chance the EU is a subs…

The question becomes one of politics: how much does each EU member care? I'm reminded about the old joke about the difference between ham and eggs being that the chicken is involved but the pig is committed.

Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states are "committed" in that they regard the risk of a Russian invasion as real, and have seen occasional incursions by Russian flights and even missiles. If it comes to a fight between self-defence and the deficit limit, they're just going to have to break the limit.

Germany, on the other hand, has been very comfortable taking Russian bribes and gas, as well as being uncomfortable with re-arming, so they've been lagging behind on the project.

Maybe there will be another "incident". France has already been reporting attempts of sabotage against their railway network.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#314

Post by mrweasel »

OutOfHere wrote: post #22
jmclnx wrote: post #9

AI Investments will slow down. A bit out there but I will go on a limb :)

It's not just a bit out there; it's completely antithetical to what we're seeing in the data.

Wasn't there some statistics showing that 90% of AI startups fail within a year, and others showing that is was perhaps closer to 85% in the first three? Both a rather bad, especially considering the amount of money these startups burn.

I don't think it's unreasonable to see investments go down, if the risk remains this high, for little to no profit.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#315

Post by eamag »

qznc wrote: post #284
eamag wrote: post #277

For those curious how well you did last years - I built a table with evaluated predictions some time ago: https://hn-predictions.eamag.me/

Wow, did you assess all of them?

I've just queried all posts from these threads and ran an llm over predictions, see https://eamag.me/2024/HackerNews-Prediction-Evaluator

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#316

Post by lwansbrough »

Random probabilities, some I think are certain, others just for fun.

- US abandonment of Ukraine spurs EU to make major change in military posture, spending (leaders will be Poland, France)

- Wide spread unrest in Europe, focused on cultural integration of immigrants from abroad/aforementioned military spending

- China tests US response to Taiwan under Trump with significant but limited escalation

- Israel expands operations in Syria and Lebanon

- Bitcoin to $50k

- Open Source LLM takes lead in ARC benchmark

- Sporadic civil unrest in US, focused on corporations. 2 more CEOs killed. Domestic terrorism significantly galvanized.

- CAD/USD continues to fall, Canadian dollar to US$0.65

- Trump makes some sort of insane offer to integrate Canada to Pierre Poilievre

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#317

Post by mrweasel »

walterbell wrote: post #187
andrewinardeer wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please elaborate on your position? In what context?

Thread-over-Matter mesh networking UWB in door locks Unlicensed 6Ghz spectrum Apple room panels (AI/conferencing/control) Apple security cameras, door locks Apple iPad-on-motorized-pole In-home AI/media servers (Mac Mini/Studio, Tinybox) Speech interfaces based on open-source stacks

If Apple, as rumored, ships an HomeKit hub with a screen I can see the category warming up. Sadly it seems that a lot of IoT/Smart Home companies avoids supporting HomeKit as they want to be in control of data collection and the ecosystem in general.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#318

Post by rapsey »

pjc50 wrote: post #308
Yoric wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough, but this doesn't sound like a major correction, does it?

70% is the end of the world for traditional stocks, not a "correction"!

70% is not the end of the world for a single company stock. Plenty have done similar and come out on top (Apple, Meta, Carvana, Netflix, etc.).

BTC market cap is lower than nVidia, Apple or MS. But that is not important, what it should really be compared to is gold and compared to that it is an upstart at current price levels.

BTC has no utility other than being digital gold. Other crypto currencies have no utility either.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#320

Post by Lionga »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #164
andrewinardeer wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 100%. The monstrous debt storm just over the horizon that most people can't see (or refuse to acknowledge) will hit and will hit hard. The Fed won't be able to restrain or lessen it with policies and blunt instruments at their disposal. Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.

>Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth. And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?

I like how trading cards and BTC are same category of "investment"
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