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Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

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Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#231
post #165
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>seamlessly send value across jurisdictions I have money. How can I get some crypto? From a middleman. Need to pay fees. Then I send it to someone. Transaction fees. The receiver wants to buy groceries or pay kid's school fees, so they need to convert the crypto to money. Again fees. So lots of middlemen and fees are involved. And most of the time, One would need to provide full KYC and need to have a bank account to…

Credit cards cost 3% + $.25 per transation (doing this from memory, but I think i'm in the ballpark here). USDC to USD costs .20% + $.50 (and that's per payout, you could aggregate transactions to pay only one fee). If you use a modern chain to do the transactions, the fees are getting increasingly more trivial (like a few cents regardless of size). As scaling solutions come online, they should be even cheaper. Avala…

Credit cards are ridiculously overpriced. It is a joke that the credit card oligopoly can siphon of an entire percent or more of a large majority of retail purchases in some jurisdictions (other jurisdictions prudently cap those fees).

But most other methods of transferring money are cheap and fast.

If we compare with worst cases, I had a BTC transaction in 2019, IIRC, with a transaction fee of USD 50 that sat in the mempool for half a day before it was picked up.

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#232
I think "effective rebranding for marketing purposes of database technologies" alone justify all the fuss, business wise.

I'm working in gaming, and in pc gaming today, when you ask 5$ pretax and preplatform fee, customers think you own them to dedicate your entire company to support the product fot the next 10 years for no additional fee, you will never heard of 90% of your customers, 5% will insult you on your steam page for any trouble they encountered, 4% will insult you and your game on youtube and social media for entertainement and self promotion, and maybe 1% will have positive feedback.

Meanwhile with a good marketing, you can potentially sell low effort proceduraly generated random png 30$ to 3000$ piece in blockchain collection/games and each of your customer will probably actually spend time promoting your game even if he disliked it, if nothing to resell that it bought or earn interests.

Of course i'm greatly exaggerating, but no wonder gaming company dream to develop the market.

And I think video game market today is awfull. Every one want everything for free and no one want to actually pay. It's probaly a big part of why VR market is nearly empty : investing what is required to make good content is probably nearly impossible to recover on sales.

It need a way to reinvent itself and allow content maker to make profits, and it may be the blockchain where it's 'normal' to pay around 100$ to try a new game and be ready to see it fail more often than not.

The fact it's purely psychological is irrelevant marketing and business wise. I even think today the console market exist for purely commercial reasons. Console player accept to spend more on video game than computer players. Then developping for console make sense, even if probably today you could probably have exactly the same game on a same price range computer.

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#233

The sole purpose of blockchain is to prevent double spending without a trusted party Other proposed applications are mostly dumb / misguided, like immutable storage, social network posts, etc, these can be done with hashing or digital signatures alone If you have a better way to avoid double spending than blockchain folks woukd get very excited. Traditional database can’t do that (requires a trusted party)

Preventing double spending is possible even without trust. A centralised authority could publish the transactions in a signed append only log. Independent verifiers could pull the log with some frequency and verify that no one spent twice.

Wouldn't you have to trust the centralized authority?

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please provide an example of any database that is tamper resistant. As a DevOps engineer I have setup and configured many different databases, I have yet to come across any that someone with admin credentials (which you always need at one least of), didn’t have the ultimate ability to tamper and do anything they will to database.

I agree that databases on their own are never tamper resistant. But you can certainly set up a process around the database that guarantees tamper resistance. You'll still have to trust said process, and with blockchain you still have to trust the code. You'll never get away from having to trust _something_, but at least it is in theory feasible to have tamper resistance both with a centralised database and with a blo…

in practice, there's a difference between "our SREs and management promise to not change anything" and "it would cost x billion dollars to replace this record with a different one, based on previous attacks we've observed"

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#235
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A database does this. The trusted party isn't eliminated by blockchain, because someone has to code the implementation of the software. Unless you checked the software for bugs or backdoors camouflaged as bugs and compile it yourself, you trust someone else. The trust 'problem' is overrated, because nothing in this world works without trust.

You’re wrong because you’re talking about database when we’re talking about distributed databases.

> You're wrong

Can I just say, on a rather unrelated note, that this just sounds very toxic and will trigger most people into "defense mode". I understand that "wrong" thoughts and opinions don't come out of nowhere, someone must have produced them, but it just reads so much nicer when the attack is explicitly targeting the opinion, and not the author.

In your other comments in this very thread you're using "Your comment goes in all directions...", "Your example is implemented in...". This is so much nicer! Thanks for going the extra mile! Let's keep the discussion going and reduce the chances of someone getting triggered and starting a flame war.

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#236
post #75

You're missing the fact that it enabled purely online/digital money people will actually use. You could build an online currency with a database much more easily than blockchain but people won't use it because it relies on a central authority to maintain the database and not enough people will trust that central authority not to misuse their power. It was tried a bunch of times in the past and never worked. Fundament…

People were using money online just fine well before Bitcoin, and even today, actually using BTC for non-investment purposes is a tiny minority. What exactly makes a dollar or euro less "online/digital" than a bitcoin?

tl;dr: Nothing. But there are some big caveats to that.

Sure, we already have tons of currency transactions going on digitally and on-line, but Bitcoin offers something that the centralized entities cannot, and these are (in no particular order):

Unconfiscatable: Because nobody can take your bitcoins away from you unless you give away your keys.

Regulation resistant: Because nobody can stop you from trading or transacting with your bitcoins at any point if you own the keys. Bitcoin does not care about which borders it goes over, or the regulation therein. (But if you break the laws of your country by making illegal transactions, then you're of course taking a huge risk.)

Crime resistance: Granted, you can be coerced into giving up your keys, but then you have the option to flag your own account for all other parties. Since all transactions are public on the ledger, it will prevent criminal parties from using your funds with full anonymity, thus making them a lot easier to catch.

Relative privacy (but not 100% anonymity): Because nobody can really know who owns an address or a transaction unless they have access to special intel that they usually will only be privy to if they own a ton of third party hardware, software and skill (i.e. if they're operating for a totalitarian surveillance state). Or if you willingly give it up your anonymity to some central authority that promises to safekeep that information, which most buyers do, btw, which decreases regulation resistance while it increases crime resistance.

Corruption resistance: Honestly, if you want to commit crimes or corruption, then cash is a way better vessel for value, since all transactions with cash are near 100% anonymous (barring widespread bank note ID code control which is also limited), and there are several superior ways in which cash may be whitewashed if you have the infrastructure for it. Meanwhile it's surprisingly hard to whitewash Bitcoin given that all transactions are public.

I might even have missed a few value propositions, but those are the most important.

> and even today, actually using BTC for non-investment purposes is a tiny minority

This is increasingly untrue. Take the countries now adopting Bitcoin as legal tender (with the Lightning Network), for example, and the many stories of people using it to make bigger purchases.

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#237
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Current Bitcoin usage is literally a rounding error of global energy usage I'd say that BTC + ETC use up about 1% of world electricity. That is significant, given that the main value is to make a few miners rich ($50m a day). > and won’t increase too much. The energy usage (more precisely: the amount of money spent on energy and electro waste) is roughly proportional to BTC price, I posit (until the next halving),…

> I'd say that BTC + ETC use up about 1% of world electricity Where did you get that figure? If you read the researched article I linked, the estimate is around 0.1%. > would go up dramatically if BTC went up dramatically Not as dramatically as you think: if BTC goes up to 1 million per coin it will still be using less than 1% of global energy consumption (again relying on the article I previously cited as my source)…

Despite all the hype. Very few people use Crypto. It doesn't matter if it's "just" 0.1% what matters is how much do all the banking and credit card systems in the world consume by comparison. I would bet it's less than that.

So it's not tenable as a currency.

It's also not very valuable as a commodity since it fluctuates too much and has no intrinsic value.

It has no value to "disconnect from the banks/government" since you need to convert it to "real currency" for usage.

There's the claim that green is possible with Crypto but I don't see how. Without turning it into a centralized system. The wastefulness is the system designed to discourage bad actors from taking over. Without it, what will stop the hacks? (not that it helps with all the robberies anyway).

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#238
> I am still unable to alleviate my scepticism that this entire space is vapourware, there is nothing here more than you can get with traditional database technology?

Technically, there could be some value in an append-only datastore that can be distributed - such as verifying where some product has come from throughout its supply chain and tracking evolution of various data series over time. Of course, there's nothing to prevent someone from entering malicious data into the chain anyways (e.g. if people did that with COVID vaccinations and recorded someone as vaccinated after taking a bribe, who's to say that someone couldn't do that with "ethically" sourced coffee, for example).

> At the same time, the amount of coverage and attention it is getting and for a sustained period makes me believe I am missing something.

We largely live in a post-factual world, so as soon as there is some supposedly advanced technology (the blockchain, machine learning, AI, serverless, Kubernetes, a while ago cloud computing also fit the bill) that nobody understands all that well, people tend to conflate speculation with fact and claim that every potential problem could be solved with this technology, oftentimes to extract resources from potential investors or other people with decision making powers (e.g. software engineers striving for resume driven development).

To those people, it doesn't actually matter whether the technology will solve the problems or actually even work, even the people that believe that these things will work oftentimes only do so due to deluding themselves, because it's not like you can easily test those claims.

In my eyes:

  - the blockchain (in any its form, excluding event-sourcing which is an architectural pattern and basically a generalization of the approach) isn't preferable to a MariaDB instance most of the time.
  - machine learning is good for a few problems but in many cases linear regression and simple algorithms are enough
  - we are decades if not centuries away from "true" generalized AI, most of the current progress is simply research, not products that solve complex problems, use cases will be limited for now
  - serverless is still someone else's machine, there is merit to the approach, but it's not suited for all systems
  - Kubernetes is cool when you have the resources to support it, which is more than many companies out there are willing to spend (many don't even need it)
  - cloud computing is cool for certain systems but in the end just boils down to the CapEx/OpEx question, it's just a different set of tradeoffs
  - you can apply the same reasoning to other advanced yet hard to "test" technologies, like full self driving cars and the "hyperloop" and other concepts like that
I'm reminded of the Gartner hype cycle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

In our current world, it's really easy to end up in the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" which will also make plenty of millionaires out there, which also should be recognized - so at worst, it doesn't hurt to explore even the improbable technologies and maybe work for a well funded startup every now and then, unless you're not about that life. You might not always solve all of the problems that you chase after, but the money in your bank account will still be very real.

At the same time, it kind of hurts to see speculants get rich off of projects like "Earth 2" and empty promises.

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#239
post #195
post #175

I’ll paste what I wrote in https://cryptologie.net/#article_555 The simplest abstraction is to see cryptocurrency / blockchain / distributed ledger technology as a database running on a single computer. Everybody can access this database and there’s some simple logic that allows you to debit your account and credit someone else’s account. The computer has a queue to make sure transactions are processed in order. Bloc…

Yes, it is a slow computer that uses the resources of about a billion modern computers. (Note that you could achieve basically any desired fault tolerance with a minuscule fraction of that with a trusted central authority.)

Your second statement presupposes central authorities can be trusted. Some presuppose that they cannot.

Re: Ask HN: Am I going insane or is there genuinely no value in blockchain tech?

#240
One interesting application is the ability prove that something existed at a specific point in time (at scale).

Publish the hash of the content to the chain. This can be scaled by combining an arbitrary number of items into the same hash using a merkel tree (https://petertodd.org/2016/opentimestamps-announcement#how-o...).

It's not a new idea - you could also publish the hash in a bunch of newspapers, but it's not as easily scalable, still relies somewhat on a third party, and the cost of independent verification is much higher.

How useful it actually is and if it's worth the cost is another question.

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