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Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

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Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#121

Post by gremlinsinc »

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #87
enchiridion wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for explaining. Any idea what the mortality increase would be?

10-15% of cases require hospitalization. The US has hospital beds for about 0.2% of the population, so possibly 10% or higher mortality rate.

To piggy back.. this gets really bad because you have the question: "How many people need critical care per year, or in a given month". Now, how many of these people die if there IS no critical care to give? No room in the inn so to speak?

I'm sure they're working on jerryrigged work arounds like using schools and hotels, but still it's not the same as a real ICU... plus it's highly possible a lot of these people could come in with a heart attack or a car crash and get COVID19, and die from the virus when their other injuries they would've survived, or they might've even survived COVID19 by itself without the extra ailments.

Not to mention, it's possible all other patients in hospital could end up w/ it if it's not contained well, and again same thing as above.

What about immune compromised patients, like Cancer patients who need chemo... they could have to postpone treatment (not enough staff to administer) which could cause them to die..or they could show up, get infected and die within 2 weeks from COVID19 + already weakened immune system....

How many people feel safe breaking quarantine to go give blood? We're having a major blood shortage right now. They say it's safe to give, but pretty sure if someone else was there or if the blood drawers are infected you'll come home with it... There's no way they can guarantee you won't... So if the blood shortage continues to worsen, how many lives will that kill as a result...

I mean you could go further and say some might starve, but I don't think we're at that yet... but it's a possibility esp. w/ panic buying and supply chain woes... but I think not till summer. There's going to be a major issue with migratory workers who work on farms..so we might be short on crops and farm goods this year.

Also according to scientists we need to social distance for an entire year at the least... This could cause a lot of depression, anxiety, and suicide too.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#122

Post by Jamesbeam »

thu2111 wrote: post #102
Jamesbeam wrote: post #39

Says "Note that I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories so I will focus only on non-political information." Spreads youtube Video of a guy who didn't even realize that he made an impostor his second in command leading a public health office in Germany. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gert_Postel Article: Why Wolfgang Wodarg's Statements have little to do with science. By a well respected fact checking and inve…

this is the same guy who voted against a Child Predator law in Germany What does that have to do with anything? It's really better to leave stuff like that out if you're attacking someone's credibility. Bringing in unrelated political points phrased on obviously inflammatory ways just makes it sound like you're got a partisan axe to grind and would criticise the guy no matter what he did.

The OP was talking about non-political opinion of said "Expert". But everything said "Expert" did in the past was politically motivated, including voting against a Child Predator law to generate attention for himself and to promote his other weird thesis, like the "Fake pandemic" stuff.

In no way, form or shape did I say he voted against it because he's a child predator. It was to show that he is a politician that is frequently trying to generate controversy to push his personal "Fake Pandemic" agenda.

So of course it has to do something with the topic.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#123

Post by graycat »

thu2111 wrote: post #100
Tomte wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prof. Drosten is the chief virologist at Berlin Charité. I'm confident that somewhere in his medical education the concept of false negatives came up, and I'm also certain that he doesn't word his answers in an interview for the general public to the standards of the nitpicking HN population.

That's a bit weak though. Right now what the world needs more than anything is precise, clear, accurate information. It's really hard to do that, I got called on making a vaguely worded and misleading statement here on HN just the other day. But then again it's not my job to make such statements. When it is, I take more care than I do in this little box. Why can't we ask for more?

> Right now what the world needs more than anything is precise, clear, accurate information.

Right: Among the things we need, good data is a biggie.

Part of that is what I've been addressing here: Test quality, especially for test results reported by the news media.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#124

Post by entee »

conformist wrote: post #69
entee wrote: post #19

No. Very simply, an extreme response is required here. The most recent UCL study demonstrates that given everything we know about the virus, extreme social distancing may not even be enough [1]. Worse, if we are successful, it will look like we overreacted because the nature of exponential spread is that if you act when you’re on the steep part of the curve you’re too late. If you act beforehand, you never get to the…

*ICL study, there's a bit of friendly rivalry between ICL and UCL ;) Otherwise, great comment!

Sorry! Can't fix now :( Thanks for correction! (Worst part: my cousin went to ICL)

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#125

Post by mcnamaratw »

rossdavidh wrote: post #2

The answer to your question is almost certainly, "yes". Any look at the grocery stores will confirm this. Unfortunately, exactly in which ways we are overreacting, is trickier. It is possible for us to be overreacting, but Covid-19 still to be a serious problem. One could also argue that, since we lose 25-60,000 people a year to flu in the U.S. alone, we were underreacting before. If we lost 25,000 people to a new th…

But if the fatality rate is 20 times higher than the flu (I don't know), and if deaths due to the flu were 50,000 per year, then there could be 1,000,000 deaths due to this disease.

Maybe the appropriate reaction to 1,000,000 deaths is different than the appropriate reaction to 25,000 deaths.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#126

Post by jnbiche »

thu2111 wrote: post #73
entee wrote: post #19

No. Very simply, an extreme response is required here. The most recent UCL study demonstrates that given everything we know about the virus, extreme social distancing may not even be enough [1]. Worse, if we are successful, it will look like we overreacted because the nature of exponential spread is that if you act when you’re on the steep part of the curve you’re too late. If you act beforehand, you never get to the…

Italian ICU capacity is completely overwhelmed, if not this virus, why? Being a truly evil Devil's advocate for a moment: 1. Because it's not actually overwhelmed. See this discussion from 2 days ago about a Reuters report where the head of ICU for Lombardy says nobody has been turned away due to lack of beds: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605144 2. Because ICU demand expands to meet available capacity as no…

Thank you for your input. We absolutely need more dispassionate analysis right now, just like yours.

In fact, I think that this does have the potential to overwhelm the healthcare system here in the US, but I think we need to continuously re-evaluate the data and its implications. And our actions.

I also believe it's wise to err on the side of caution initially if we don't fully understand the implications of this pandemic, but it's important to always re-evaluate our reaction as a clearer picture comes in.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#128

Post by biolurker1 »

thu2111 wrote: post #73
entee wrote: post #19

No. Very simply, an extreme response is required here. The most recent UCL study demonstrates that given everything we know about the virus, extreme social distancing may not even be enough [1]. Worse, if we are successful, it will look like we overreacted because the nature of exponential spread is that if you act when you’re on the steep part of the curve you’re too late. If you act beforehand, you never get to the…

Italian ICU capacity is completely overwhelmed, if not this virus, why? Being a truly evil Devil's advocate for a moment: 1. Because it's not actually overwhelmed. See this discussion from 2 days ago about a Reuters report where the head of ICU for Lombardy says nobody has been turned away due to lack of beds: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605144 2. Because ICU demand expands to meet available capacity as no…

This is equivalent to all the thousands of lies Trump said during three years. It's so unscientific and dangerous I wish you didn't belong to this community. This analysis will kill people and is equivalent to convincing people to stop chemo.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#129

Post by objectivetruth »

notacoward wrote: post #80
threatofrain wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You might feel you're Living Right and you're at no risk yourself, but - as has been pointed out many times but apparently not enough - It's Not Just About You. Your actions are connected to others' outcomes. There's a social responsibility to avoid becoming a vector for infection. Influenza kills tens of thousands per year, and people are getting sick through social contact. The fact that the medical system is hav…

You want figures? I've already cited a report estimating a possible 4.4M people needing ICU-level care. That's vs. ~85K ICU beds and ~62K ventilators. https://www.healthaffairs.org/pb-assets/documents/blog/blog_... http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/20... Even if those patients were spread evenly over the whole year and across hospitals, which is totally unrealistic, that's tens of thousands wh…

>What numbers are you assuming for the economic collapse you've predicted? What rational basis is there for believing that the cure is literally worse than the disease? Can you debate with facts instead of "avoid bad things" and emotion?

You won't get an answer because they realize that putting an actual dollar amount on the lives of those who will die isn't quite acceptable yet, even on a libertarian paradise site like HN.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#130

Post by qqn »

javipas wrote: post #99

I'm from Spain, one of the most exposed countries right now. At first you see this as something distant, something that was happening in China as Ebola was happening years ago on Africa. It can't touch me. A few days ago the state of alarm began over here. Remain at home, minimal movement (just to go for groceries, pharma, the rest of retail businesses are closed now). It felt closer, but still you feel safe. You're…

Yes, captioned an avalanche video to show this: https://twitter.com/theandrewglover/status/12389377584684646...
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