This is really cool, please more of this from the AI folks! That’s way more impactful and interesting than another coding agent
DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
21–30 of 109 posts
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.
Valuable, agreed. But lucrative?
Are Sol and Fable lucrative? I suspect they also are valuable (to clients) but not lucrative (yet).
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#23Accurate weather forecasting has been one of the major achievements of the 20th and 21st century. Computing power is a central piece of this story, but it's also important to remember that the government infrastructure in place to collect ground-truth current weather data is utterly critical to these model's successes. From launching weather balloons to running global weather-monitoring satellites, the scientists and systems at NOAA/NWS (and in this case, the UK counterparts) provide critical expertise and data.
I say this because it seems that earlier announcements where industrial deep neural nets "outperformed NOAA" likely encouraged the slash-and-burn Trump administration in its gutting of critical activities and centers of expertise at NOAA. The impression that industry can predict weather better than the government agencies totally misses that the industrial models utterly rely on government data for inputs. In fact, almost all weather reports you see---weather.com, TV, etc.---are just lightly repackaged products that NOAA provides for free on weather.gov (which you can access for free without ads).
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#24It seems especially useful for cargo ships, with better predictions they could save some fuel and be safer.
Wake me up once commercial airplanes can take advantage of this and take us across the Atlantic in less than 5 hours.
I don't mean to be disrespectful... but, why would you consider tech intended to save lives and resources less of a deal, than slightly faster flights over the Atlantic?
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#25Maybe was this that was the last drop for Sundar. Demis: "I have a new amazing breakthrough" Sundar: "Great! We really need a answer to Sol and Fable" Demis: "They are completely owned in typhoon forecasting"
Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.
I agree, but the shareholder mentality undervalues the heck out of that.
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#26> We can now generate a single 15-day forecast in less than a minute on a TPU, empowering forecasters to quickly evaluate the probability distribution of potentially devastating tail-risks. Crazy
"This has surprised scientists, and it remains an open research question to fully understand how our models produce such accurate predictions at this resolution." Also crazy. Seems important to understand why something does what it does, in the very least to know when it might not?
You can't, and it's one of the biggest problems when trying to use AI for anything.
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#27Maybe was this that was the last drop for Sundar. Demis: "I have a new amazing breakthrough" Sundar: "Great! We really need a answer to Sol and Fable" Demis: "They are completely owned in typhoon forecasting"
Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.
I know this is uncharitable and I am wrong but I am having trouble coming up with concrete scenarios where you die with 2 days notice but survive with 3. I am nonethless a believer that more accurate forecasting has value.
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
Valuable, agreed. But lucrative?
Are Sol and Fable lucrative? I suspect they also are valuable (to clients) but not lucrative (yet).
I think both have value, but in opposite ways. While WeatherNext prevents costs, models like fable or sol "create profit".
I can think of 10 examples how one could make money with fable. With WeatherNext? Only 10 examples of preventing costs.
Taking this, maybe naive, thought further, profits have no upper limit (except resources) while costs can only save so much?
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.
I know this is uncharitable and I am wrong but I am having trouble coming up with concrete scenarios where you die with 2 days notice but survive with 3. I am nonethless a believer that more accurate forecasting has value.
Could you imagine a scenario where from warning to complete evacuation takes more than two days? Evacuating a whole area is a hard task, particularly once you start looking at more complex problems (elderly, prisons, hospitals).
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#30[deleted]