2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out • Hacker News Board

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#461

Post by apple4ever » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:49 PM UTC

1718627440 wrote: post #384

apple4ever wrote: post #92

This is why I'm so hesitant to use AI. There are other reasons (for example: the journey is the fun part, not the destination; and I want to learn not have something done for me), but the pressure AI puts on memory and storage is too much for me. I do use it occasionally, mostly to keep tabs on it and for small problem solving (how do I do this one piece of a query in MySQL, since I'm not a MySQL DBA), but that's it…

First, I am kinda the same. > how do I do this one piece of a query in MySQL, since I'm not a MySQL DBA Honestly for most things, the actual documentation is the best resource. I needed to learn to stop looking for solutions to my issue on various fora (like SO) and just read the primary documentation from the vendor. Have a look at dev.mysql.com or mariadb.com/docs/server

I do agree, and generally that's what I do. Because then I actually learn instead of fire and forget.

In that example specifically, it was a bit of "let me see how this works and how good it is" too.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#462

Post by apple4ever » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:50 PM UTC

rickydroll wrote: post #99

apple4ever wrote: post #92

This is why I'm so hesitant to use AI. There are other reasons (for example: the journey is the fun part, not the destination; and I want to learn not have something done for me), but the pressure AI puts on memory and storage is too much for me. I do use it occasionally, mostly to keep tabs on it and for small problem solving (how do I do this one piece of a query in MySQL, since I'm not a MySQL DBA), but that's it…

Unfortunately, I can't not use AI because it provides the best speech recognition I've ever used and, going along with hand problems, it now allows me to write code after a three-year absence from that skill. I do miss it. I'd never do it again professionally in the large, but I have missed writing code a lot. My solution is to see what four or five-year-old equipment I can buy that will let me run local LLMs. I may…

That's definitely fair, and for people like you, it makes sense.

And yes, running local ones actually are the best of both worlds I think, because it puts less pressure on the memory/storage needs as a whole.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#463

Post by apple4ever » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC

Aurornis wrote: post #128

pu_pe wrote: post #37

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.

Yes, but the impact will be small. The average consumer isn't purchasing a lot of products with a lot of RAM every year. Their 8GB of RAM phones will go up in price a little bit, but people aren't buying phones every year or even every other year. So if the price of the 8GB of LPDDR went from $40 to $160 and it's all passed on to the consumer buying a new phone every 4 years, that's an extra $30/year in spending. Mos…

I think you are really underestimating how much memory prices are going to impact everything. I mean, look at Apple, they raised the prices of the HomePod mini and Apple TV- why? Because they use memory. It's going to have lots of follow on effects.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#464

Post by thaPintYo » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC

vannevar wrote: post #175

bob1029 wrote: post #141

One unit of HBM capacity consumes roughly the wafer capacity that could have produced three units of DDR5 capacity. HBM dies need to be larger than ordinary DRAM dies because of how the final packaging works. > As discussed previously, the ramp of HBM production will constrain industry supply growth in non-HBM products. Industrywide, HBM3E consumes approximately three times the wafer supply as D5 to produce a given n…

>As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI (return on investment) that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth. The problem is that they need actual chips tomorrow. I fear we are reaching the point in the semiconductor industry where, in order t…

[dead]

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#465

Post by throwatdem12311 » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:58 PM UTC

damontal wrote: post #403

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #211

My own PC died and now I’m locked out of my entire Steam library for the foreseeable future. A $2000 PC is literally a downgrade from what I bought 10 freaking years ago. What the freaking hell.

My feeds are full of ads by gaming pc makers now renting out gaming pcs for a monthly fee. NZXT calls it a lease with a 2 year refresh.

You will own nothing and be happy.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#466

Post by cortesoft » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

burnte wrote: post #455

cortesoft wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

> The alternative is to have shortages. This is a myth. The volume of inventory remains the same regardless of the price. When demand is higher than supply you have shortages regardless of price simply because you have unmet demand. If you raise prices, that demand is still unmet, you're now filtering that demand by who is willing to pay more so you maximize your own value and profit. Not even rationing prevents shor…

You aren't just filtering by who is willing to pay more, because willing to pay more is also indicative of how valuable that inventory is to the people buying it.

All demand is not equal. Some companies have very valuable business they can do with the inventory while other businesses have less valuable uses for it. The more valuable uses are willing to pay more, so higher prices means the most valuable uses get filled first.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#467

Post by throwatdem12311 » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

toaste_ wrote: post #261

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Motherboard. New motherboard…so new cpu socket (mine was Broadwell)…and new ram needed. GPU is mostly fine and can probably reuse that but it’s Vega so not the greatest I was due for an upgrade but the prices of everything is ridiculous. The thought of pc-of-Theseus’ing my busted ass PC is just sad. Thank god I bought a PS5 Pro before Sony started jacking up the prices. I remember when buying a $300 GPU was extravaga…

So, you have DDR4? Pick any B550 with a VRM heatsink for $90, a 5600 for $190, and you are back in business. Get a 5070 or 9070 before GDDR supply is completely gone if you want an actual upgrade. As for GPU price, that Vega 64 was $500 in 2018. Even a midrange GPU hasn't been $300 since the Radeon RX 480 launched a decade ago.

Just bought a B550 and a Ryzen 5 5500. Both were on sale on newegg. 30-40% off so and under 200 bucks. Grabbed a new case since my current one is practically falling apart. Will be back in business in a couple days. Thanks for the advice.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#468

Post by mixedCase » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 6:02 PM UTC

burnte wrote: post #455

cortesoft wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

> The alternative is to have shortages. This is a myth. The volume of inventory remains the same regardless of the price. When demand is higher than supply you have shortages regardless of price simply because you have unmet demand. If you raise prices, that demand is still unmet, you're now filtering that demand by who is willing to pay more so you maximize your own value and profit. Not even rationing prevents shor…

This ignores that whenever the margins for an industry increase, this interests new investments in it, and new players to come aboard, as well as new product lines that can satisfy the demand in a new way that people either didn't consider or rejected before due to being outclassed by the formerly cheaper alternative.

Rationing does not stimulate investment this way.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#469

Post by cortesoft » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 6:03 PM UTC

majormajor wrote: post #437

cortesoft wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

What's the functional difference between "I can't afford it" and "I can't get it due to a shortage"? (Other than a convenient-for-some/inconvenient-for-others "let the richest get the stuff first!" shift, and just pretending that we are all fully independent actors instead of members of a community?)

People seem to be thinking of "affording" as merely a property of having more cash. It is more than that, it is about the potential RETURN on the investment. The businesses that can 'afford' to pay more are the ones who are going to put the chips to the most valuable use (at least in the macro sense). A company might have plenty of money, but won't pay above a certain amount for the chips because the business case they are using them for is not valuable enough.

Raising prices is a way to filter for most valuable use.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#470

Post by thenoblesunfish » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 6:03 PM UTC

I got a new MacBook Pro recently. Sure seemed expensive to get more RAM. But actually I don't know enough about the chip - it's an M5 system on a chip - is Apple ultimately buying the RAM parts of that from the suppliers AI is overwhelming, or do they "make the RAM with the rest of the chip" in some way?