Viewing profile — pianopatrick

Yes, but there are other digital goods, like music, movies and books which are not quite as hard to make as software. In those you have a hit driven market dynamic with lots of nic…

I think part of the reason software was winner take most was the difficulty of making software. I remember hearing a story that in the past movies were so technically difficult to …

If software has become a mass-produced commodity then seems to me the software business will become a much more finance focused business You will really have to weigh the cost of m…

What is amazing is people do not switch away from GitHub. Maybe people are actually pretty tolerant of downtime if other things about the product or service are done right

Maybe. I'm just spitballing but as I've been thinking about this, maybe just like a set of shell scripts. The idea could be that the agent runs as a unix user. That user has execut…

Maybe someone could set up a CLI tool for agents such that you can give them a shell but they use this CLI tool instead of raw curl. Like a tool where the AI can only call out to c…

This article seems strange to me talking about the lack of ATACMS mattering for a war against China. The publicly available range of the ATACMS is 300 km. Seems to me an ATACMS cou…

One reason among several is that middle east states fund the US fiscal deficit by buying treasuries with their oil revenues. If the US loses that source of financing then the US fi…

This feels like a moment in time, not the end state of AI. Like I read there was a time when teams of people + AI could beat pure AI at chess. But that these days, pure AI wins. Fo…

Seems to me OpenAI and Anthropic are kinda following the Apple business strategy. Those two offer a premium service that gets better results and works more seamlessly. I.e. the int…

As a teacher I know for a fact some people just learn faster than others. So I think part of why developers get attached to tools is because learning takes time. Some people can pi…

Isn't being brittle kinda the point of playwright tests? Because each test uses the whole app those tests can catch errors that happen at many places in the code. But that means lo…

If a novel is 70,000 to 100,000 words, then a whole novel can fit in the context window for AI. That has to be good for the editing process. I.e. you can use AI to scan the whole b…

I have heard on podcasts that the way the Russians make plans for the Ukraine war is like this: There are rooms in the kremlin with no electronics. In these rooms there are paper m…

Well the fun part of AI is that the tools those "battle tested" sandboxes use are also becoming vibe coded more and more. For example, Linux is accepting AI code. So if your sandbo…

Yeah, but you might still want to enter the field based on the aging of the current workforce. Seems likely to be a shortage of electricians over the next while.

I don't know how much of an edge hacking skills really give in war these days. A lot of America's adversaries seem to have learned tactics to deal with getting hacked. For example,…

I don't really see the link between use of AI and military superiority. My current understanding is a lot of current US military problems are due to rare earths supply chains. I do…

That makes sense to me as a tactic to prevent that problem. But the article talks about how so much code was written so fast. Seems to me that to create that much code that fast yo…

There is no law that prices must revert to a mean. The market can keep going up in dollar terms while losing real value if we enter a phase of high inflation.

At what point should I trust projects like this? I've heard stories of LLMs changing tests to get all the tests to pass instead of actually fixing code. So I'm not sure I trust it …

I wonder how articles like compare to just asking AI "review my markdown files, settings, harness and so on. Tell me any ideas to improve them" Just ask that once per week or so.

Eventually I think to truly be like Kubernetes, you would need an AI model that has public training data and that a lot of companies collaborate on. Might make sense eventually. Sa…

"Open source" open models can also survive if they are seen as a necessary cost of doing business. Same logic as tech companies working together on Linux. "We need an operating sys…

I think the threats from Iran are causing the Saudis to not strike Iran. The Saudis don't want their infrastructure blown up by missiles from Iran.