Viewing profile — mlinsey

High-performing open weight models being released recently, and your customers looking into working with multiple providers as a result, are a great reason to drop prices on your n…

"With one big caveat: you need a very clear set of requirements" Most new product launches are an exercise in figuring out what the product requirements should be through trial and…

For ordinary coding (making webapps, frontend and backend), the non-SOTA models do fine, but the SOTA models have better judgement and need me to intervene less often, allowing wor…

I have some sympathy to geohot's view when it comes to pure informational chatbots. It's a first amendment issue, I'm allowed to write and read books that are useful to getting awa…

Also, I just want to step back and actually give Costco some props here for their brand loyalty. Inshallah, when I have a 400 Billion market cap company and someone writes a fawnin…

You got me, I'm totally paid off. Real New Yorkers love to go five miles (just for the closest one to me, in Manhattan seven avenues over and around 100 streets north), take a cab …

Costco is an elegant solution for the suburbs, where everyone is driving around a vehicle large enough to store giant boxes off a pallet and bring them home. Here in NYC, it's real…

I'm not sure where in my post you thought I was suggesting either ignoring an export control or that all export controls are illegal. Export controls are governed by the Export Con…

The labs will not just ignore the order, there are too many other levers they can try to pull to mess with those companies. Just for some examples, think about the number of employ…

In 2004, I took a class where we trained "language models" that were bigram word models, on an archive of a couple years of the Wall Street Journal. I remember someone who literall…

I understand why Anthropic might not want to fight this particular one in court, because they're trying to convince the administration to let them move forward. But would another c…

ID checks are possible for first-party harnesses...but they would also mean no more API access. Your wrapper could easily become a way for a foreign national to query Fable. Maybe …

If the existing memory makers retains control of the market and don't defect from the optimal-long-term equilibrium for themselves, that's true. It just takes one player to defect …

You're describing efforts by powerful institutions to squash the technology, which they definitely try to do, but that's just a strong signal that the technology itself is inherent…

That's definitely too broad a statement. I'd argue encryption, oral contraceptives, and the printing press were all strongly decentralizing.

My anecdata is that it heavily depends on how much of the relevant code and instructions it can fit in the context window. A small app, or a task that touches one clear smaller sub…

The consumer surplus is quite high. Even with the regressions in this postmortem, performance was above the models last fall, when I was gladly paying for my subscription and thoug…

It's true he could write off xAI today and the company could still fetch a trillion-dollar valuation. But I was more referring to his stated intentions - between his stated plans, …

Is this cash or compute? Elon has one of the world's biggest compute clusters spun up, and little inference demand to speak of. Trading billions worth of idle compute, in exchange …

Yes, cost per successful task is rising - ie, we are all paying effectively more for AI. And yet - Anthropic is still struggling to have enough capacity to serve demand - they are …

You're observing that: a) effective price-per-token is rising b) there is insufficient compute to meet the demand. And your conclusion is that the industry is circling the drain an…

The models that we are paying to generate tokens are already not really just LLMs, as anyone studying language models ten years ago (or someone who describes them as "next token pr…

I agree, but also the model intelligence is quite spikey. There are areas of intelligence that I don't care at all about, except as proxies for general improvement (this includes k…

Different users do seem to be encountering problems or not based on their behavior, but for a rapidly-evolving tool with new and unclear footguns, I wouldn't characterize that as u…