Viewing profile — cmiles8

Wouldn’t be that different from open source software, which has been very successful in many circles. You make money from value-add on top of the models not the models themselves.

If you believe, as an increasing number of folks do, that LLMs are basically commoditized at this point or will be soon then there really isn’t a path forward for non open models. …

Companies will pawn off thier customers to AI at their peril. In many ways this is a repeat of the India call center train wrecks of the 00s. On paper, letting someone in Bangalore…

That’s like saying an apartment building is “profitable” because the rent covers utilities while ignoring the real cost which is the mortgage on the capital cost of the building. I…

With the business model for API based LLMs looking iffy at best it seems like we’re heading back to the “server under your desk” era of IT again.

More or less yes. There is a real issue in many companies of a grifter leadership class.

AI psychosis is a very real thing, but the issue is more generalized around hype cycles than anything specific about AI. It’s more revealing the inability of many senior leaders to…

The “click yes the proceed” was never a serious security mechanism. It’s simply a CYA click-thru by the model vendors so their lawyers can say “well you approved it this is on you”…

Except there’s been very little evidence of this happening or about to happen, which is turning into a huge problem for the big labs.

The big lab models are academically interesting but business wise they seem toast long term. There’s no way for these model companies to compete when the models are becoming a pure…

Rather ironically you spend time outside Silicon Valley it would appear those most at risk of “mass unemployment” are the folks full-press pushing AI. It’s “cool” and the tech is h…

Yes… the “trust me bro” vibe doesn’t play well with East Coast money

This is the most misquoted bit in that whole fiasco. He apparently had to sell every liquid thing in the portfolio. What’s left is allegedly just some highly illiquid paper assets …

1) Doesn’t make him wrong, and his thesis is looking more and more correct every day 2) The bullish AI side is full of grifters and folks that were block-chain and NFT “experts” be…

Well with OpenAI saying strongly the opposite now they can’t both be right. Someone is lying through their teeth here.

Small open weight local models are the future. While hosted mega models make headlines for doing cool stuff, the vast majority of applications for AI simply don't need all that pow…

Amazon is setting itself up to get bruised a bit, but it has a sufficiently diverse business and cash flow from non AI things that it will be fine. Pure play companies, startups, a…

It completely unclear where this 1.65T is going to come from to pay the bill. Revenue from people buying AI doesn’t even come close to covering it, even with crazy aggressive assum…

SpaceX has put a ton of excess capacity on the market. Meta tanked chip stocks by saying it was considering the same. Worries about compute overcapacity, via folks saying they want…

Are you saying people haven’t been throwing unneeded GPU capacity on the market? That is happening. Frankly it’s the opposite scenario (that’s there’s all this demand) which is str…

The “Let it burn” attitude doesn’t mean people think they are immune. Yes the overall market will take a hit but, like a forest fire we need a healthy burn to just wipe out the wea…

Outside a relatively small world of circular investment and FOMO feeding FOMO the general consensus seems to be “let it burn.” It appears very unlikely we will ever see an IPO of O…

It is. However remember that when the bubble pops it all works in the reverse direction too. Suddenly you have to mark down investment losses, missed revenue, and written off commi…

If users start questioning the ROI of your AI product just hide the “I” from them. Problem solved.

Operate under an amateur radio license (which overlaps with the WiFi bands) and you could run up to 1,500 watts. Couldn’t be used much for an actual network but if it was just an e…