Viewing profile — astro1234

Im curious if you find this to be a parody in a bad way or simply a “the state of the art in math research right now is telling a machine to believe in itself”. I am in the latter …

Oh my god do not trigger me about the news reporting “points” for the DOW or the S&P, I have seriously considered calling news stations about this. Or not providing inflation adjus…

Yes! I am aware of this and they are really great. Problem is nobody will ever read that, but they WILL watch Fox News, CNBC, etc. and those outlets never even point out that there…

Oh I’m well aware the BLS knows what they’re doing and publish error bars, they are great. The problem is news articles, no one ever reads BLS reports but they do watch Fox News, C…

As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news repo…

I agree and that’s why we need and indeed have an ever evolving landscape of benchmarks > Private, refreshed test sets attack the mechanism itself, and in my view they are the only…

I don’t think that’s fair to say, there are two principle sources of data that paint a fairly consistent picture - one is scaling laws, where we found years ago that pretraining va…

Yea this may explain part of it or all of it, it’s likely a case by case kind of thing. Also to respond to the parent comment: benchmarks have a variety of difficulty levels. Human…

I work in AI evaluation, lots of problems and leakage is an issue as is ecological validity, but they definitely do not explain the progress we see. I think Epoch has the best anal…

I find them useful bellweathers of genuinely out of domain performance and capability, regardless of their theoretical importance. What I see is that performance trends are remarka…

I think the question and definition game is interesting only inasmuch as it helps us understand ourselves (what actually explains some of the mysterious properties of our perceived…

Yes, I was hoping they would actually offer some kind of partnership with the sports leagues to stick a few of their cameras in stadiums and offer live sports games, but I don't th…

It is absolutely unreal the experience watching the ~10 minute sports games on the Vision Pro. The thing is 4 grand but that’s how much the first 4K TVs were. Hope the price can dr…

Of course but I think labs is a good term. Like a lot of terms like this it comes from history. The people working on AI at these places come predominantly from academia and predom…

I don't have personal experience with this -- but if I were in the situation where my job was jeopardized by better price efficiencies, I don't know that I personally would have a …

Immigration having downward pressure on salaries is a common and demonstrably false misconception. Immigration adds more members to the labor pool while also increasing demand . Th…

Huge fan of Claude for a long time but switched now to Codex after all of this "ok one more week, one more week" stuff. It feels like Sol is quite capable, and the nice thing is th…

I think the biggest phase transition happened roughly fall of last year with AI adoption. My entire job is now AI orchestration, and then a LOT of my time spent writing the specs/p…

In my experience Data Science looks very little like it used to a few years ago, and the priority skill these days is good strong understanding of the basics and very good sense of…

I don’t mean to say you are wrong, I just mean to ask what criteria you would consider necessary to satisfy in order for you to consider a system to be reasoning.

I tend to agree but to adjudicate that someone has to define what they consider reasoning to be.

I’m curious what this means? I think the evidence is pretty convincing that, while brittle, there is reasoning going on (though it depends on your definition of reasoning which I’m…

Why not? I think there’s fairly strong evidence that there is something that convincingly looks like reasoning. I think anthropic has done some nice circuit tracing and mechanistic…

One of the highest quality, nuanced strategy docs for this company I’ve ever seen. Cannot poke any holes in this. Also while people very fairly pile onto the Reality Labs disaster,…

Did my PhD at Princeton, knew Jenny Greene personally (not my adviser though). There is zero conflict of interest in Astronomy generally. No one has anything to gain. Various insti…