Viewing profile — TobyTheCamel

There's a fantastic website called Difford's Guide [1] that allows you to list the cocktail ingredients that you have and will then provide a long list of cocktails you can make (o…

I think people are typically referring to the task-completion time horizon at a fixed success rate [1]. That has had pretty robust exponential scaling for many years now. [1] https…

Genuinely, thank you. This is very encouraging and makes me feel much better about commenting more going forwards. The quality of discussion and prose on HN is just generally so hi…

Looks pretty exponential to me [1]. From a fully independent, non-profit research group. [1] https://metr.org/time-horizons/

You're talking quite statically though. I don't think anyone is worried about today's models being a serious threat, but next year's, three years' time? Just three years' ago these…

You're talking as if this is a static thing though. It's the God of Gaps [1] but for humanity's special sauce. Two years ago, I couldn't trust an LLM to do anything that wasn't str…

If Anthropic were not developing these models, one of many other companies would be. I think it's good that the CEO of the current world-leader is at least considering these discus…

Your first point is very reasonable, and I agree that that is something Dario would likely be more opposed to. However, my point isn't that I think Dario is our saviour who we shou…

Sure, I have no doubt that AI progress will follow an S-curve. The question is, where are we on it and is the plateau at a level safe for humanity? That's a very difficult thing to…

I feel completely baffled by the other responses on this thread. People viewing this purely as a marketing stunt, regulatory capture or attack on their freedoms, with seemingly no …

I currently have subscriptions to both Claude and ChatGPT. I generally prefer the former but find I can't fully commit to it for my maths-heavy workload as it often struggles to co…

> However, the idea is that often a lot of the probability mass - an amount that is not small - will be concentrated around the maximum likelihood estimate, and so that's why it ma…