Microsoft is Dead
paulgraham.com
Microsoft is Dead
1–10 of 454 posts
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#2I agree, the shadow is gone - but for how long?
As much as I am frustrated with having to use XP (My Autodesk BIM cad system only runs on it), I wouldn't underestimate MS's ability to bounce back from bad directions/decisions like they have in the past.
If Gates radically changes his vision and business model to the new web world and gets Balmer to agree, they could dominate again. But can a company that has written extensively buggy software in the least lean way transform at this late date?
If it were anyone else other than Gates at the top of the company, I would say no. But does Gates have the energy this late in his career to make such a dramatic change in his business? Maybe not.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#3I guess I must be old now, because I find it hard to believe that a company that still has their software running on 95% of the world's computers is "dead". I just don't get this argument.
I totally agree that there's this very small, very insular part of the world that thinks it's dead, but that part of the world is apparently not working in large companies, or trading files with professionals in any profession other than design (e.g., try to find an Architect using Mac-based software -- they can't, because they couldn't trade files with each other or clients).
I'll believe MS is dead when they have, say, less than 70% of the world's computers running their operating system and when my corporate clients stop asking for files in Word format. Until then, they're just a monopoly that has massive amounts of power but that the cool kids aren't interested in.
It's like saying POTS telephones are dead -- they might not be interesting, but that's a big difference from being dead.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#4I can't decide whether etiquette requires you to allow the author of an article to post it if they are members (founders) of the site.
Then again, etiquette doesn't help entrepreneurs much.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#5Well what hurts me is the thing they have forced people like me to stick to MSFT. Atleast in our univ, they have exclusive tie up with MSFT and they install 99.99% windows only. Its rather 0.01% apple. But some who have admin access put on linux. Most of standard mech engg softwares run on windows. MSFT gives their products at dead cheap prices ... as low as $5 a CD. These dirty tactics are seeing them ahead, but it may not continue as people start seeing the reality. For MSFT to die, these loops must be plugged and nailed to accelerate its death.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#6I agree Paul, but Microsoft is still running that boring Enterprise Software that you always talk about. Also Microsoft's shitty software pays for my lunch,dinner, beer and women.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#7I think the situation is somewhat unpredictable since Microsoft could try to break AJAX apps by introducing all sorts of problems in IE.
Unreliable AJAX apps under IE would discourage users from using web apps. Most users are generally clueless and will not try to switch to another browser.
Microsoft could also undermine the business model of many web services by providing free advertising. The ads could even appear on users' desktops so improving their search engine may not even be necessary.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#8I guess I must be old now, because I find it hard to believe that a company that still has their software running on 95% of the world's computers is "dead". I just don't get this argument. I totally agree that there's this very small, very insular part of the world that thinks it's dead, but that part of the world is apparently not working in large companies, or trading files with professionals in any profession othe…
I think PG's point isn't that MS will vanish or is vanishing from the current installed user base point of view (mainly their OS), but that they no longer control the direction of software development. This is a major opening for us Entrepreneurs that, as PG pointed out, has never happened before.
MS Office is clearly under serious attack now, and I'm sure the OS will follow in a few years unless MS takes a major tack in their business, which seems unlikely but is possible. If you are a top-notch programmer brimming with big ideas, do you want to work for MS? Probably not, and I think that is the biggest barrier they have to succeeding in the new web world. You can buy programming mercenaries with enough cash, but the genius paradigm-shifters will be hard to find over at MS.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#9Microsoft is still an enormously profitable and powerful company in the real world, and you should be more careful about drawing conclusions based on what a few people think in your insular little "Web 2.0" bubble.
More seriously, I mostly do business right now with small businesses (2-8 people), and some stupidly high proportion of these businesses run totally on Windows. When they go to buy the computer(s) they need, it never even occurs to them that there is any choice about whether to buy Windows, because Windows is just what programs run in. This kind of customer laughs ruefully along with the Apple commercials they see on TV, but I don't think it ever crosses their mind that they could actually buy a Mac for their business, much less a Linux box.
Word, Excel, Internet Explorer, Outlook, and Exchange are the core software apps of 90+% of small businesses.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#10Paul, I think you're being an ignorant a little bit in this case. Have you seen how Microsoft become the second major player in the game industry behind Sony PS brand? I think right now more people own XBOX 360 compare to Sony PS3. Of course there's Wii, the Apple of Console machine.
Google is popular because people like Michael Arrington, Walleywag, and those biased non-professional bloggers-turned-online-reporters sing praises toward Google. How many Google apps dying? How many Google apps that people use these days? AdSense, GMail, GMap, and of course, their search engine.
I think you read online hi-tech newspaper or surf reddit.com too much where of course the content is full of new startup that does pretty much nothing astonishing.. "Scribd, the YouTube of document..." or.. the X-programming language and how X is cool but C# isn't.
Apple is sort of the "new trend" these days because it looks good. Most of the computer science students in my university now are switching to Apple of course because they saw the cool/smart kids are using it.. for browsing reddit.com and talk how cool ruby on rails and DHH are.
I bought Apple 2 weeks ago and by the 3rd day, I installed Parallel Desktop with Windows XP loaded with MS Office and Visual (C# and Web Developer) Express Studio 2005. By the way, I'm a long time FreeBSD users and I have a machine with XP dual boot + Ubuntu (now Ubuntu on the other hand is one piece of distribution... respect..!)
Microsoft is not dead. They're still up and running. They're just not visible in your path Paul. They're doing other things that do not interfere with your Web 2.0 posse. One IPTV company gave a talk in my e-Business course a month ago, she sang praise for Microsoft because they have the most complete strategy in IPTV world. FYI, IPTV is better than YouTube.
Let's admit it, people need to hear new information, new gossips, new products and new toys. But only time will tell if these new stuffs can replace Microsoft.
The other thing is, if Desktop is dead, why am I keep hearing news about Slingshots, Apollo and WPF/E ?
Maybe Microsoft knows how broken the WWW is and they prefer not to build their interest around it (other than just to be another big player next to Yahoo! and Google because they have pride and they want to be acknowledged that they still can be a big player in any field..)
MS isn't dead yet, not until they stop creating software/hardware and move to the business/consulting field. It's true that they lost the "touch" and that they lost in understanding their customer, but they're not as bad as you envisioned.
Of course you're writing this essay to fire up these hotshots or web 2.0 wannabes to quit their jobs and to forget applying for big companies and make a web2.0 thing for YCombinator (^_^)