China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
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Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#2"Mr. Tao informed the audience that the capital flight from China in December alone amounted to $20 billion, and that was just from official channels. The true amount could be four times greater."
So this bureaucrat just committed career suicide by admitting this.
Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#3I know where it's going. My neighbourhood in Vancouver BC is covered in "for sale" signs. There are minivans full of Chinese investors paroling the sidestreets looking for houses.
The downside is that, by my count, more than half of the houses are vacant or under construction. I smell bubble.
Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#4I know where it's going. My neighbourhood in Vancouver BC is covered in "for sale" signs. There are minivans full of Chinese investors paroling the sidestreets looking for houses. The downside is that, by my count, more than half of the houses are vacant or under construction. I smell bubble.
>I smell bubble.
Canada is one of the last-men-standing as far as housing bubbles. Toronto is also bad. Calgary is heading for trouble now that oil has crashed. It could get interesting.
Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#5I know where it's going. My neighbourhood in Vancouver BC is covered in "for sale" signs. There are minivans full of Chinese investors paroling the sidestreets looking for houses. The downside is that, by my count, more than half of the houses are vacant or under construction. I smell bubble.
> I smell bubble. Canada is one of the last-men-standing as far as housing bubbles. Toronto is also bad. Calgary is heading for trouble now that oil has crashed. It could get interesting.
Australia and Canada are very similar. Both continued with a housing bubble well after all other Western markets collapsed. Both also supplied the raw materials that fuel China's economy; an economy that didn't slow down very much while the rest of the West suffered. But now they're clearly takings some of the heat out of their economy. Australia and Canada will feel that.
Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#6This a problem in first tier cities even in the US. It's not only the IPO crowd driving up prices in SF, NYC, etc. But these foreign investors --the IPO people get the flack from displaced communities, but foreign investment contributes its own good share of this new housing shortage... It's begun to affect second tier cities like Minneapolis, Austin, etc.
Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I smell bubble. Canada is one of the last-men-standing as far as housing bubbles. Toronto is also bad. Calgary is heading for trouble now that oil has crashed. It could get interesting.
Australia and Canada are very similar. Both continued with a housing bubble well after all other Western markets collapsed. Both also supplied the raw materials that fuel China's economy; an economy that didn't slow down very much while the rest of the West suffered. But now they're clearly takings some of the heat out of their economy. Australia and Canada will feel that.
but just when will this bubble burst and are there any metrics or signs we can find that have suggested the bursting of subprime mortgage debts in 2008?
Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#8This a problem in first tier cities even in the US. It's not only the IPO crowd driving up prices in SF, NYC, etc. But these foreign investors --the IPO people get the flack from displaced communities, but foreign investment contributes its own good share of this new housing shortage... It's begun to affect second tier cities like Minneapolis, Austin, etc.
Try living in a city like Miami where a staggering amount of condos/property are primarily treated as a store of value by foreigners.
Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
Australia and Canada are very similar. Both continued with a housing bubble well after all other Western markets collapsed. Both also supplied the raw materials that fuel China's economy; an economy that didn't slow down very much while the rest of the West suffered. But now they're clearly takings some of the heat out of their economy. Australia and Canada will feel that.
but just when will this bubble burst and are there any metrics or signs we can find that have suggested the bursting of subprime mortgage debts in 2008?
China's bubble has already burst. Their real estate market will continue to fall indefinitely. Their record debt accumulation will continue until they burst at the seams, while they try to keep the fake growth going.
Australia will trend down with China's weakening demand for resources. They're directly pegged to China's well being.
Canada will trend down (or up) with oil. If oil is $30-$60, Canada will have to tighten their belts. If oil is $60 to $100, all will be well, mostly.
That said, Canada's ability to binge on debt is likely nearing an end (including mortgage debt). Their household debt has continued to soar post great recession. Given where it's at now, there isn't likely a lot of runway left. 1-3 years tops. As the debt binge ends, the housing market will lose a lot of support. The only question will be whether it'll be an orderly decline, or a crash; and I think that will depend on how much higher that household debt level goes over the next ~36 months.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finan...
The Canada vs US household debt chart paints the picture rather starkly:
Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
but just when will this bubble burst and are there any metrics or signs we can find that have suggested the bursting of subprime mortgage debts in 2008?
China's bubble has already burst. Their real estate market will continue to fall indefinitely. Their record debt accumulation will continue until they burst at the seams, while they try to keep the fake growth going. Australia will trend down with China's weakening demand for resources. They're directly pegged to China's well being. Canada will trend down (or up) with oil. If oil is $30-$60, Canada will have to tight…
The typical vancouverite response (annoying) is
"oh but our prices will never fall, we live on the best god damn city in the planet, just look at all this foreign demand for our real estate, we are in a bubble you say, you eggheads have been crying about it for the past 15 years and look it hasn't happened so it never will, this time it's different"
"this time it's different" - japanese real estate bubble.
"we are in a new economy" - dot com bubble
"samsung now makes cars" - asian financial crisis
"these people will pay us back" - subprime mortgage crisis
"oil will never fall" - oil drop
"bitcoin is gonna keep going up" - 2013