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Do antivirals and the flu-vaccine even work?

theatlantic.com

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Re: Do antivirals and the flu-vaccine even work?

#5
I've read some evidence that people who are more likely to die from flu are less likely to get vaccinated for flu thus the vaccinated population 'looks' healthier.

Worst this means that flu vaccines are bogus (not likely, we're quite good at creating vaccines and they work in labs) and best it means they are a HUGE waste of time and money (a bit more likely but you can level that argument at most things we routinely do for health).

However since I am _not_ a virologist or epidemiologist I tend to follow what my doctor says.

Re: Do antivirals and the flu-vaccine even work?

#6
post #2

Oh, please. http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/10/journalists_si...

The tone of this article is far more shrill than the Atlantic article. Dr. Thomas Jefferson is demanding evidence for assertions - that's "methodolotry"? He's betraying the original ideas of evidence-based medicine by demanding that medicine be based on evidence? For shame.

In this case his evidence base isn't even relevant, because we aren't dealing with seasonal flu but pandemic flu.

Ah, but the epidemiology to back this statement has mostly come from very dubious and biased statistics - specifically, the way that, in Mexico where epidemic originated, the only people they found with the disease were those on the edge of death because of the tendency there to only go to the doctor when you are on the edge of death. Despite the pandemic declaration, we haven't seen death rates above the normal rates of flu season yet (though a slightly different group is dying..). We might see high death rates but ... perhaps ... we should look at evidence before making grand declarations that this like nothing seen before.

Note, the original article is a not screaming endorsement of Jefferson's view, just a summary of debate:

The most vocal—and undoubtedly most vexing—critic of the gospel of flu vaccine is the Cochrane Collaboration’s Jefferson, who’s also an epidemiologist trained at the famed London School of Tropical Hygiene, and who, in Lisa Jackson’s view, makes other skeptics seem “moderate by comparison.” Among his fellow flu researchers, Jefferson’s outspokenness has made him something of a pariah.

Re: Do antivirals and the flu-vaccine even work?

#9
post #2

Oh, please. http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/10/journalists_si...

The tone of this article is far more shrill than the Atlantic article. Dr. Thomas Jefferson is demanding evidence for assertions - that's "methodolotry"? He's betraying the original ideas of evidence-based medicine by demanding that medicine be based on evidence? For shame. In this case his evidence base isn't even relevant, because we aren't dealing with seasonal flu but pandemic flu. Ah, but the epidemiology to bac…

No, he is demanding a specific type of evidence and automatically discounts cohort based research.

Anyway, to prevent another 1918 flu pandemic and 50+ million deaths you need to see if your treatment protects vs cytokine storm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm not the standard symptoms. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic) H1N1 is far from this deadly but doing nothing is playing with fire.

PS: You can't compare the results of two studies without looking at their methodology 60% fewer deaths in group A, vs 50% after some adjustments.

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