The Future Arrives in 2045
theconnectivist.com
The Future Arrives in 2045
1–10 of 21 posts
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#2[deleted]
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#3People really are insane.
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#4In the last century, has anyone ever accurately predicted the future 30 years before?
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#5I don't think that 2045 machines will have become intelligent in terms of having a free will (whatever this means) and being able to think critically, but what I could imagine is that most people got enough dumb that they won't be able to realize the difference anymore. See how many people already take for real what marketing is telling them or using facebook and google bubbles without the slightest idea of the consequences.
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#62045 is an estimated based on our current pace. Couldn't we take steps to accelerate progress? Reduce it by 10 or 15 years? In the 1960's, for example, we were able to put the first human into space and reach the moon, all within a decade.
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#7Well, I added a reminder into my Google Calendar. Whatever happens in AI, if I make it to 1/1/2045 I'll be freaked out at midnight by a long-forgotten "Future Arrives" notification popping up in my ocular implant or whatever.
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#8I mean no disrespect to Ray, he is a smart person and all, but I don't think we know how to define what qualifies as hard AI. Let alone how to get there.
This article seems overly optimistic.
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#9Well, I added a reminder into my Google Calendar. Whatever happens in AI, if I make it to 1/1/2045 I'll be freaked out at midnight by a long-forgotten "Future Arrives" notification popping up in my ocular implant or whatever.
Assuming Google Calendar exists in 31 year :P
Re: The Future Arrives in 2045
#10No, it doesn't. Kurzweil has been making this claim for the last decade based solely on the increasing speed of computers, ignoring the fact that we don't yet have any clue how general intelligence actually works. It doesn't matter how fast our computers are if we don't know what algorithms will give rise to "intelligence", and we've made virtually no headway in this field.
The examples of "AI" cited in the article are remarkable, but are still extremely specific or not really intelligence at all. Siri, etc, are nothing more than text parsers that give a canned set of responses. The work on neural networks is interesting but still, at best, only a small component of actual AI. (Note: I'm not going to define an "actual AI". Yes, I know we keep moving the goalposts on what that would be. I'll know it when I see it, and so will you).
I'm not saying it won't happen, but it will require a type of conceptual breakthrough that we simply haven't had yet. To hype "the singularity is nigh!" at this point is dishonest, trivializes the real problems and sets false expectations for industry and policy-makers.